April Madness - First Round NHL Playoff Predictions

http://ahaberman35.livejournal.com/13865.html This is an archive entry, originally published at my previous site, livejournal.com (April 14th, 2010).

After all of this Big Ben mess, it’s time to get back to good old fashion sports. And no better time than the start of the Stanley Cup playoffs, my favorite time of the sports year. Here’s hoping I get my cable working tonight and/or find a bar that has actually heard of Versus (Last year I had to explain to a hotel worker that Versus is a TV channel like NBC or Fox…seriously).

This year, my annual Stanley Cup playoff predictions come with a new twist. Just as my idol the Sports Guy (Bill Simmons) posts his picks and his wife’s (the aptly named, sports gal), I’m including Emily’s picks as well. Amazingly, we picked all eight series the same (and I swear independently).

For the record I was 12 and 3 last year, even though my first round picks were made 35,000 feet over the Atlantic Ocean. And of course there was absolutely zero Penguin bias in those picks.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Ottawa Senators (5)

Who would have thought back in October that the Pens and Sens would be hooking up for the 3rd time in four years? Ottawa seemed like a playoff long shot at best when the season started.

I have some concerns about the Pens going into this series. There has been something, not quite right about this team the last few months. It’s nothing terrible and nothing I can put my finger on. Maybe its fatigue, maybe they are pacing themselves, maybe they’ve lost interest in the regular season. In any event, we are counting on the boys to turn it on in April.

I’m not sure yet if this Penguin team is good enough to win another cup but I’m pretty sure they are good enough to beat Ottawa. I’m not ready to throw myself on the Brian Elliott bandwagon and I still think Spezza and Alfredsson are soft post season players. The Senators are also without enigmatic star Alex Kovalev which quite honestly could be good or bad. On the other hand, Sid and Geno woke up right on schedule the last week of the season. If Fleury follows in goal, everything will be okay.

The Pens need to seriously step up their game if they want to beat New Jersey and/or Washington but I think they are more than ready to take out an Ottawa team that overachieved this season. I’m also looking for a true breakout post season from Jordan Staal. Even without Scary Gary Roberts to torture Ottawa…PENS IN 6 (Emily…Pens in 6).

Washington Crapitals (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8)

I would love nothing more than to see Ovie and his boys get slapped out in the playoffs in the first round. Truthfully, the Craps have jumped slightly ahead of the Goons as the team I hate the most.

Alas, I see little or no chance of that happening. Montreal is a perfect match-up for Washington. They will give them too much room to skate and allow too many offensive opportunities. Ovie will be lighting up the scoreboard and we will have to hear that obnoxious horn leading on the Washington bandwagon.

Sadly, Montreal does not have a superstar that Alex Semin can rip in Russian before Semin goes ten games without a goal. And they do not have the firepower to take advantage of Washington’s questionable blue line or the debacle that is Jose Theodore in the nets.

At least we will get to enjoy seeing Montreal fans poor out their anger and frustration on Theodore. And maybe Propecia boy will get re-acquainted with the Montreal bars he was rumored to spend so much time in during his days as a Hab (Kapper...that's Hab, not Habe). Alas, he could be hung over in goal and I still think Washington would win 6 to 4.
Unfortunately we will have to endure more discussion about how great Ovechkin, Semin, and Green are…at least until Sid and Geno get a shot to slap them out of the playoffs again. Only because Halak will steal one game…CRAPS IN 5 (Emily, Craps in 5).

(2) New Jersey vs. (7) The Eastern Pennsylvania Orange and Black Goon Squad

This year’s, who do you root for series? The Penguins most hated rival or the team they went 0 and 6 against that prides itself in sucking the life out of every game? They’ve even found a way to make Ilya Kovalchuk seem boring. In the end, I’ll just ignore this series and hope it goes away.

I know New Jersey has struggled in the post season and I know Melanie Brodeur’s ex husband has had some rough moments in recent big games (Playoffs/Olympics). That being said…MARTIN BRODEUR VS BRIAN BOUCHER…Devils in 4 (Emily – NJ in 7).

(3) Ryan Miller and Company vs. (6) Boston Bruins

Who do you pick in a series of long time, bitter division rivals where one team over achieved all season (Buffalo) and the other under-achieved beyond belief? A tough call indeed.

I’m not impressed with Boston but frankly I’m not overly impressed with the Sabres either. I think they are way too dependent on the Great American Hero. I also think that either Boston goaltender, Tuukka Rask or Tim Thomas is capable of matching him in a long series (Thomas may just stare at him for two minutes with that creepy look a la his NHL network commercial).

Honestly, if Marc Savard were playing in this series, I would take Boston. Alas, thanks to his rough meeting with the Cooke monster, the Bruins just do not have enough fire power. That means they hit the goal course early and Claude Julien hits the unemployment line. After all it’s Boston, it’s always the coach’s fault.
With some hesitation…BUFFALO IN 7. (Emily – Buffalo in 6)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Jose Chokes (1) vs. Colorado Avalanche (8)

I do not know much about anything but I know this. If San Jose manages to lose to another 8th seed, especially one like Colorado, a lot of Sharks are going to have new addresses next year.

Last year I gave serious consideration to picking Anaheim to beat the Sharks. I felt it was a bad match-up since Anaheim had no business being an eight seed. In the end, I backed off for exactly the reason Anaheim ending up winning. I did not think Jonas Hiller could steal a series. And I claim to know all about goaltending.

So have I learned my lesson? Absolutely not. I do not think Colorado matches up well with the Sharks. And I do not think Chicago product Craig Anderson can steal a series. Please make a note of my comments when Anderson is carrying the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP in June.

This is the last chance in my mind for Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Johnny Nabokov. If those guys choke again, I think San Jose has to break up the band and start over. I’m not sure they will get past the second round given Thornton’s desire to hang on the perimeter and make pretty passes but I think they are good enough to survive the Avalanche. Barring a Patrick Roy/Joe Sakic revival…SAN JOSE IN 5 (Emily – SJ in 6).

Chicago Blackhawks (2) vs. Nashville Predators (7)

I’m going to ghost write this prediction as Emily. The Hawks will win because Antti Niemi will be brilliant start to finish, Patrick Kane will dominate offensively. Jonathan Toews will lead by example, Duncan Keith will own the blue line, and Patrick Sharp will be the surprise offensive hero (and sharp dressed man). They also have some winger who used to play for Detroit.
Actually all of those things can happen. And for those of you outside of Chicago who do not know, Niemi has played brilliantly this season. He’ll have to prove it in the post season but like most people here in the windy city, I’d prefer Niemi blindfolded and drunk over the ghost of Cristobal Huet.

Nashville is a plug and chug team. They lack a true superstar and win with the hard working, team concept that worked so well in the dead puck era. They’ve had the same head coach for 47 years in spite of never winning a playoff series; a guy with no neck who looks frighteningly like Edward G. Robinson (watch The Ten Commandments, you’ll understand).

If this were not a division rivalry I would go Hawks in a sweep. Alas it is so…CHICAGO IN 6 (Emily – Niemi, er, uh, Chicago in 5).

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. LA Kings (6)

I’m not sure why so many hockey media folks are on the Vancouver bandwagon. I think literally they take the best Canadian team each year and desperately try and convince themselves they are championship caliber. Rarely have I seen it more pronounced than this year.

Yes, Henrik Sedin lead the NHL in scoring and shockingly continued to play while his twin brother was injured (I thought they would suffer all injuries simultaneously). Yes the Nucks have some talented players. So does LA, they just do not get any headlines. Plus they have Rob Scuderi to blanket Sedin and hold him to just 12 points or so.

I hate to always make things about goaltending (well, that’s not true) but lets face it, Vancouver is built around Luongo. And Luongo has been bad…really, really bad of late. It’s eerily reminiscent of the Dan Cloutier days when Vancouver had an incredibly talented team but could not overcome their shoddy goaltending. They don’t even have Moose Hedberg to throw in if things get worse.

I have rarely seen a player whose reputation so grievously exceeds his actual accomplishments than Luongo. He’s a regular season stud and a playoff ghost. Unless he channels his inner Flower, it’s going to be a long offseason for Bobby Lu and the Twins.

I don’t know much about LA but they have a talented young team and I just feel and upset here…KINGS IN 7 (Emily’s Pick – Kings in 7)

Phoenix Coyotes (4) Vs Detroit Dead Wings (5)

I’m just so sick of the Dead Wings. I would love to see them get beat by this young, overachieving Phoenix team that could not pay its rent six months ago. What a story that would make if we could send home Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk and the rest of the Dead Wings early.

Sadly, I do not see it happening. Detroit may eventually run out of gas but they are too seasoned and too experienced for the Desert Dogs. The only good thing is we probably will not have to endure another two month Chris Osgood love fest from Mike Emrick…probably. It truly hurts me but…Dead Wings in 6 (Emily’s Pick – Dead Wings in 6)

All hail the mighty Penguin, blessed be the Penguin, for it is good !