The NHL has reportedly presented a new CBA proposal to its players, offering a 50/50 split of hockey related revenues with no rollbacks on current contracts. The offer also drops many of the pie in the sky extraneous demands from the original proposal, most of which had little or no chance of ever coming to fruition.
In short, the NHL has put its cards on the table. The league has advanced the deal it was probably trying to get from day one.
I have always believed the 50/50 split of revenues was the owners’ end game. Most of what they included in their first proposal; including dropping the players share of revenues to 43% was a smoke screen intended only to create the range of negotiation. If you do the math; the average of 57% of hockey related revenue (what the players get now) and the 43% the owners originally “offered” is 50%. I doubt that’s a coincidence.
The league’s negotiating tact was no different than you or me offering $250,000 for a house listed at $300,000 with the hopes of meeting in the middle at $275,000. Sometimes that strategy works, sometimes it does not. It all depends on the resolve of the seller and/or whether they see through the smoke screen.
Of course as my real estate agent warned me back in 2003, there is also the risk of insulting the seller with too low of an offer. If that happens the situation becomes emotional; and emotion can be a powerful deterrent to getting a deal done.
Therein lies the problem with the owners’ original strategy. They created so much animosity with their first offer that the players walked away in a huff, refusing to make anything more than cursory counter proposals. As my old JV soccer coach Joe Findlay used to say, the idea was solid, the execution was poor. The owners could have accomplished the same goal with a more reasonable starting offer.
Regardless of the reason, the owners seem to have come to grips with that reality and definitively changed their strategy. They have scrapped the dog and pony show negotiation process which requires both sides to slowly move to the middle. They have done what so many pundits said they had to do; backed down from their hard line stance for the betterment of the league.
Now the question will the players do the same? Will they understand that the 50/50 split was the goal all the time and that the owners have simply moved up the time table for presenting it? In short, will they take a very solid offer, make a tweak or two where necessary and lace up their skates.
Or will they see this proposal as a sign of weakness and push aggressively for additional concessions? Will they simply see this offer as the real "starting point" for negotiations to paraphrase Fehr?
Take the former approach and we will have hockey in early November. Do that latter and the BEST CASE scenario becomes last year’s NBA; a shortened season starting around Christmas. The worst case, nuclear option is a repeat of 2004-05; which means no hockey. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle.
So again I ask, where do the players go from here?
I simply do not see the owners moving too far off this offer. The players must now come to them. I have read articles suggesting anywhere from 18 to 25 NHL teams are in the red, some because of the revenue sharing dollars they are already required to pay. The NHL today may not be the economic calamity it was in 2005 but there are still very real financial problems. The salary cap was a starting point solution. Now the cap figure must be adjusted to a number that makes sense.
I remain SHOCKED at the amount of support the players have gotten from fans in this lockout. They are earning unprecedented salaries even as most of the teams are losing money because the salary cap REQUIRES them to pay 57% of revenue. More than that, fans typically refuse to accept the perceived trials and tribulations of millionaire athletes, even when we are not coming off the worst economic collapse since original Ottawa Senators were hoisting Stanley Cups in the roaring 20s.
In spite of this, public reaction to date has been shockingly pro- player; shocking given that most of us would donate a kidney to make 10% of what Shea Webber earns…to play a game. I'm willing to bit some portion of it relates directly to the general hockey populace's extreme distaste (however misplaced) for Gary Betteman.
If the players reject this offer, which figures to be the best one they see in the near future, I believe the tide of public opinion will turn decisively against them. My impression is that most people believe a 50/50 split is the right deal, especially if it comes without rollbacks on existing contracts. Delay the season further simply because the all-powerful Fehr thinks they can extract more blood from the NHL stone and I assure you the players will resume their typical role as the perceived villans in CBA negotiations.
To that end this proposal, for whatever reason they made it, is a brilliant strategic move by the owners. The risk of course is putting their best offer on the table now, before the PA moves closer to meeting in the middle. The reward is shifting perception of blame for the labor stoppage squarely to the players. My guess is this was intentional; given the included carrot of an 82 game schedule and the recent hiring of a political strategist. Even if it was accidental, my conclusion remains the same.
I doubt Fehr much cares about public perception but his employees very well might. Reject this offer and the Shawn Horcroff’s of the world might encounter a bit more backlash when they lament the reduction of their 6 Million dollar fully guaranteed annual salary.
While I do favor small rollbacks from the players, the reality is this deal can likely be made without them. The projected cap range at 57% of HRR was $54.4 Million to $70.4 Million. Taking the league’s oft publicized $3.3 Billion revenue figure, I estimate the cap at 50% of HRR at being between $46.7 and $62.7 Million. That’s a much more livable figure for the current NHL.
According to CapGeek.com, 17 teams are currently below that $62.7 Million payroll figure and 7 more are less than $2 Million above it. That means that for the most part teams can get to the new cap number without rollbacks. Yes it will create a cap crunch for most teams over the next two seasons but so be it. The NFL basically did the same thing this year which is why Mike Wallace is still living on the paltry sum of $2.7 Million per annum. The main point is the league will have an economic model that makes sense in the long-term. And rest assured there will be some mechanism to phase this in such that Boston does not have to drop $6 Million in cap obligations over the next two weeks.
The next move is up to Fehr and the players. I sincerely hope they do what’s in the best interest of the game and work with the model presented. Fehr’s first statement (“this is a good start”) not to mention his track record and the NHLPA’s badly misplaced anger are ominous signs but not unexpected. The question at this point is not what they say, it’s what they do.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Blogging Team Seto and the 2012 Chicago Marathon
After nearly 9 months of hard core training, my wife Emily lined up for her first ever marathon this morning.
After virtually no relevant training, I lined up for my first roving spectator role at a marathon. My somewhat ambitious goal, to cheer my wife at six different spots over 26.2 miles. The plan was carefully orchestrated and logistically sound though ripe with uncertainty. A heartfelt thanks to Shawn Johnson for some excellent viewing suggestions.
Anyway, it turned out to be quite an experience, well worthy of my first, Bill Simmons’ style time line recap blog in several years . Before I start let me say what absolutely MUST be said. My sincerest congratulations to all of the runners and ESPECIALLY my wife. What all of these folks did today is simply incredible. I’m beat down and physically exhausted from my day and I did not do 1% of what these amazing athletes did. My wife and all 37,000+ finishers should be VERY, VERY PROUD of this mammoth accomplishment!
With that my recap. All times central standard and slightly estimated:
6:00 am (sharp) – Alarm goes off…snooze.
6:05 am – Alarm goes off…awake, for real.
6:15 am – I drop off Emily at the Green Line and the day is underway. Morning temperature is a balmy 38 degrees.
6:17 am – I return to the Green Line stop to return some lost equipment that fell out of Emily’s bag in the car. First and only potential crisis of the day successfully averted.
7:30 am – I post the following video on Facebook to motivate my hockey fanatic wife (yes, we did watch Miracle for motivation on Friday night). The post is accompanied by these famous words from U.S. Olympic hockey coach Herb Brooks (as voiced by Kurt Russell); “This cannot be a team of common (wo)men; because common (wo)men go nowhere. You have to be UNCOMMON. Should any of you choose to view this inspirational video, rest assured I am ABSOLUTELY NOT calling my wife a Candy Ass!
8:00 am – The first leg of my personal journey, a 1 mile walk to the red line at State and Lake. This is accompanied by my first attempt to cross a street that is part of the course. For comparison, this is sort of like playing the old Frogger arcade game except here you only get one guy.
8:25 am - There is a train waiting when I arrive at State and Lake although I’m not sure if it’s going the right direction. Given my natural danger seeker instincts I jump on anyway, risking life, limb, and going 500 feet the wrong direction. Turns out I’m on the right train and a shockingly unexpected trend for the day has emerged; spectacular CTA timing.
8:35 am – Off the red line at Chicago Avenue, waiting for Emily at LaSalle and Chestnut.
8:45 am – As an aside, I should mention that I’m wearing my black and gold Steeler sweatshirt ONLY to make me more visible to Emily (at least that’s what I tell people). I’m also using the Terrible Towel ONLY so that Emily can easily spot me as she runs by (at least that’s what I tell people). While I’m waiting for Emily 11 runners, again 11 MARATHON runners, allocate a portion of their scarce energy reserves to scream “LET’S GO STEELERS” or something to that effect. That’s why they call it the Steeler NATION folks. We’re like a cult!
8:55 am – Emily runs by and hands over her gloves and hat as the temperatures are souring to over 45 degrees. We’re 3.5 miles in and she’s looking strong.
9:00 am – Back to the red line. I hate to be cruel but there is a foul smelling gentleman at the underground stop who is screaming epitaphs at himself and apparently swatting at imaginary bugs. Ahhh…the city.
9:15 am – Off the red line at Clark and Fullerton. As I hit the street I encounter three people wearing Philadelphia Phillies outfits. Perhaps because the Steelers and Eagles play today or maybe just because Philly and Pittsburgh fans hate each other, they all scowl at me. I’d survive either way but I’ll have my revenge by day’s end thanks to Shaun Suisham.
9:35 am – Waiting for Emily at Clark and Deming (just north of Fullerton), about 50 feet from the apartment building I lived in my first seven years in Chicago. Amazingly during that time I never once viewed the marathon. Like any of you were out of bed at 9:00 am in your 20s…
9:45 am – The Superfriends run by…Batman, Robin, Superman, the Hulk and I believe Wonder Woman. I find myself actually contemplating the question of why Superman is not closer to the lead. You know…because he’s SUPERMAN and all. I also see a gentleman who proudly proclaims himself as “Gay Eagle Scout.” Make of that whatever you want.
9:55 am – Emily runs by mile 9.2 looking powerful and in control. She would call this coincidental but I cannot help noting that my wife is clad in red (jacket) and black (pants), the exact colors of her beloved Chicago Blackhawks. By the way five more “Go Steelers!” screams including one from a guy dressed…in a Steeler outfit. He even admonishes me for not waving the towel. HERE WE GO !!!
10:10 am – After a quick check of the CTA’s first and only proactive modern invention, the internet bus tracker reveals no stops for the Halsted bus. I assume I will be taking a cab to Greektown. Astoundingly as I arrive at Halsted and Fullerton there is a Halsted bus waiting at the stop. Yet another logistical touchdown. Here’s something to ponder, is the bus tracker really such a great invention if it provides completely inaccurate information? Ladies and gentlemen, your Chicago Transit Authority.
10:30 am – Arrive at my building and then a quick walk to Halsted and Adams in Greektown.
10:45 am – The most disturbing site of the day, a tall shirtless gentleman with man boobs that are hopping around like they’re in a food processor. Amazingly women are not permitted to be topless in public but this abomination is perfectly legal behavior in our society.
10:50 am – The women standing next to me complains about an awful, sewage smell emanating from the ground. In a shaky attempt at humor I apologize for not showering this morning (almost as if I’m assuming my brother’s role in this dialogue). Her response, “go figure you’re from Pittsburgh.” BAM…POW. That hurt.
10:55 am – A runner detours course to inquire if he’s seen me earlier on the course. Its official, the crazy guy in the Steeler sweatshirt (at the CHICAGO Marathon) has been recognized.
10:56 am – Emily comes by with the Sears Tower (or Big Willie or whatever) appearing majestically behind her in the background. We’re half way home and she looks fantastic. Oh and five more Steeler yells.
11:00 am – Sandwich break at Halsted and Jackson. There is a part of me that thinks eating a sandwich while watching people endure a marathon is kind of ignorant; but that part grudgingly defers to my growling stomach.
11:25 am (ish) – Here comes Emily again, this time from the west and she still looks like a running machine. She plants a big sloppy wet kiss on me as she runs by. Too much information for the tender sensibilities of my dear readers? DEAL WITH IT. The woman ran 26.2 miles today. I also assume there are 50 or more Steeler yells but they are obscured by loud (and in one case shockingly inappropriate) music.
11:45 am – I head to the Eisenhower to jump on the blue line for a two train connection to Chinatown. As I’m rushing down the extended ramp to the stop (which is in the center of the aforementioned expressway), I see a train has arrived. I start running. Then my jeans start falling down. So I grab my pants to hold them up and nearly trip in the process; all while one of Chicago’s finest admonishes me to be careful. Thankfully nobody saw this potentially humiliating moment. Of course MILLIONS will likely read about it in this blog.
12:00 noon – PERFECT red line transfer at Jackson. Why can’t I have this kind of train luck on work days?
12:30 pm – Arrival in Chinatown.
12:35 pm – Here comes Emily. She’s 22 miles in and still firing on all cylinders. Amazingly this is the first time all day I start to mentally acknowledge how incredible all these runners are…and how they are all certifiably nuts!
12:45 pm – ANOTHER perfect red line transfer. Train is waiting at the top of the steps. If it were not Sunday and I was not scampering all over Chicago I would buy a few lottery tickets.
1:00 pm – My first and only mistake of the day. I hop off the red at Roosevelt and ATTEMPT to fly south on Michigan avenue. The folks in front of me compared our efforts to salmon swimming up-stream. I would say it was more like salmon swimming, up-rapids.
1:20 pm – I complete the two block walk…up rapids mostly no worse for wear.
1:25 pm – Here comes Emily with the finish line in site. She looks so strong you would think this was just a short stroll in the park for her. After yet another kiss, I run ahead of her and take the picture below. Who knew the marathon would give me so many chances to make out with my wife???
1:35 pm – An official marathon text alert informs me my wife has completed the Chicago marathon. WAY TO GO EM !!!
2:00 pm – I walk over a mile to meet Emily at “runner reunite.” I know you all have great sympathy for my hardship; what with 37,000+ other runners around me who ran 26.2 miles AND THEN had to walk that extra mile.
2:05 pm – Reunited with far and away the best athlete in my household!
2:15 pm – One last time, we grab a bus perfectly on time. Given that my wife is a trifle sore from her endeavors, this is a tremendous bit of final fortune.
5;30 pm – Through the magic of the digital video recorder I watch Suisham’s game winning field goal sink Philly and save the Steelers’ season. Totally irrelevant to the marathon but…I gotta be me.
The final tally
Emily – 26.2 Miles, 5 hours 27 minutes and one completed marathon. I could not be more proud of my wife who worked harder than you will ever know to accomplish this life-long goal. Not just the 9 months of training but many, many nights of stretching and rehab as well. I’ll keep the specifics private but will disclose that my wife ran today’s marathon with injuries that would have kept me from walking to the kitchen. No question who is the toughest person in our household.
Adam – 3.5 miles walked (or speed walked) 4 trips on the red line, 1 blue line, and 2 bus trips to reach 6 viewing destinations and the finish line on the course. Unofficially 16 kisses from my wife.
Fans yelling – “GO STEELERS” or something of comparable nature – At least 25.
After virtually no relevant training, I lined up for my first roving spectator role at a marathon. My somewhat ambitious goal, to cheer my wife at six different spots over 26.2 miles. The plan was carefully orchestrated and logistically sound though ripe with uncertainty. A heartfelt thanks to Shawn Johnson for some excellent viewing suggestions.
Anyway, it turned out to be quite an experience, well worthy of my first, Bill Simmons’ style time line recap blog in several years . Before I start let me say what absolutely MUST be said. My sincerest congratulations to all of the runners and ESPECIALLY my wife. What all of these folks did today is simply incredible. I’m beat down and physically exhausted from my day and I did not do 1% of what these amazing athletes did. My wife and all 37,000+ finishers should be VERY, VERY PROUD of this mammoth accomplishment!
With that my recap. All times central standard and slightly estimated:
6:00 am (sharp) – Alarm goes off…snooze.
6:05 am – Alarm goes off…awake, for real.
6:15 am – I drop off Emily at the Green Line and the day is underway. Morning temperature is a balmy 38 degrees.
6:17 am – I return to the Green Line stop to return some lost equipment that fell out of Emily’s bag in the car. First and only potential crisis of the day successfully averted.
7:30 am – I post the following video on Facebook to motivate my hockey fanatic wife (yes, we did watch Miracle for motivation on Friday night). The post is accompanied by these famous words from U.S. Olympic hockey coach Herb Brooks (as voiced by Kurt Russell); “This cannot be a team of common (wo)men; because common (wo)men go nowhere. You have to be UNCOMMON. Should any of you choose to view this inspirational video, rest assured I am ABSOLUTELY NOT calling my wife a Candy Ass!
8:00 am – The first leg of my personal journey, a 1 mile walk to the red line at State and Lake. This is accompanied by my first attempt to cross a street that is part of the course. For comparison, this is sort of like playing the old Frogger arcade game except here you only get one guy.
8:25 am - There is a train waiting when I arrive at State and Lake although I’m not sure if it’s going the right direction. Given my natural danger seeker instincts I jump on anyway, risking life, limb, and going 500 feet the wrong direction. Turns out I’m on the right train and a shockingly unexpected trend for the day has emerged; spectacular CTA timing.
8:35 am – Off the red line at Chicago Avenue, waiting for Emily at LaSalle and Chestnut.
8:45 am – As an aside, I should mention that I’m wearing my black and gold Steeler sweatshirt ONLY to make me more visible to Emily (at least that’s what I tell people). I’m also using the Terrible Towel ONLY so that Emily can easily spot me as she runs by (at least that’s what I tell people). While I’m waiting for Emily 11 runners, again 11 MARATHON runners, allocate a portion of their scarce energy reserves to scream “LET’S GO STEELERS” or something to that effect. That’s why they call it the Steeler NATION folks. We’re like a cult!
8:55 am – Emily runs by and hands over her gloves and hat as the temperatures are souring to over 45 degrees. We’re 3.5 miles in and she’s looking strong.
9:00 am – Back to the red line. I hate to be cruel but there is a foul smelling gentleman at the underground stop who is screaming epitaphs at himself and apparently swatting at imaginary bugs. Ahhh…the city.
9:15 am – Off the red line at Clark and Fullerton. As I hit the street I encounter three people wearing Philadelphia Phillies outfits. Perhaps because the Steelers and Eagles play today or maybe just because Philly and Pittsburgh fans hate each other, they all scowl at me. I’d survive either way but I’ll have my revenge by day’s end thanks to Shaun Suisham.
9:35 am – Waiting for Emily at Clark and Deming (just north of Fullerton), about 50 feet from the apartment building I lived in my first seven years in Chicago. Amazingly during that time I never once viewed the marathon. Like any of you were out of bed at 9:00 am in your 20s…
9:45 am – The Superfriends run by…Batman, Robin, Superman, the Hulk and I believe Wonder Woman. I find myself actually contemplating the question of why Superman is not closer to the lead. You know…because he’s SUPERMAN and all. I also see a gentleman who proudly proclaims himself as “Gay Eagle Scout.” Make of that whatever you want.
9:55 am – Emily runs by mile 9.2 looking powerful and in control. She would call this coincidental but I cannot help noting that my wife is clad in red (jacket) and black (pants), the exact colors of her beloved Chicago Blackhawks. By the way five more “Go Steelers!” screams including one from a guy dressed…in a Steeler outfit. He even admonishes me for not waving the towel. HERE WE GO !!!
10:10 am – After a quick check of the CTA’s first and only proactive modern invention, the internet bus tracker reveals no stops for the Halsted bus. I assume I will be taking a cab to Greektown. Astoundingly as I arrive at Halsted and Fullerton there is a Halsted bus waiting at the stop. Yet another logistical touchdown. Here’s something to ponder, is the bus tracker really such a great invention if it provides completely inaccurate information? Ladies and gentlemen, your Chicago Transit Authority.
10:30 am – Arrive at my building and then a quick walk to Halsted and Adams in Greektown.
10:45 am – The most disturbing site of the day, a tall shirtless gentleman with man boobs that are hopping around like they’re in a food processor. Amazingly women are not permitted to be topless in public but this abomination is perfectly legal behavior in our society.
10:50 am – The women standing next to me complains about an awful, sewage smell emanating from the ground. In a shaky attempt at humor I apologize for not showering this morning (almost as if I’m assuming my brother’s role in this dialogue). Her response, “go figure you’re from Pittsburgh.” BAM…POW. That hurt.
10:55 am – A runner detours course to inquire if he’s seen me earlier on the course. Its official, the crazy guy in the Steeler sweatshirt (at the CHICAGO Marathon) has been recognized.
10:56 am – Emily comes by with the Sears Tower (or Big Willie or whatever) appearing majestically behind her in the background. We’re half way home and she looks fantastic. Oh and five more Steeler yells.
11:00 am – Sandwich break at Halsted and Jackson. There is a part of me that thinks eating a sandwich while watching people endure a marathon is kind of ignorant; but that part grudgingly defers to my growling stomach.
11:25 am (ish) – Here comes Emily again, this time from the west and she still looks like a running machine. She plants a big sloppy wet kiss on me as she runs by. Too much information for the tender sensibilities of my dear readers? DEAL WITH IT. The woman ran 26.2 miles today. I also assume there are 50 or more Steeler yells but they are obscured by loud (and in one case shockingly inappropriate) music.
11:45 am – I head to the Eisenhower to jump on the blue line for a two train connection to Chinatown. As I’m rushing down the extended ramp to the stop (which is in the center of the aforementioned expressway), I see a train has arrived. I start running. Then my jeans start falling down. So I grab my pants to hold them up and nearly trip in the process; all while one of Chicago’s finest admonishes me to be careful. Thankfully nobody saw this potentially humiliating moment. Of course MILLIONS will likely read about it in this blog.
12:00 noon – PERFECT red line transfer at Jackson. Why can’t I have this kind of train luck on work days?
12:30 pm – Arrival in Chinatown.
12:35 pm – Here comes Emily. She’s 22 miles in and still firing on all cylinders. Amazingly this is the first time all day I start to mentally acknowledge how incredible all these runners are…and how they are all certifiably nuts!
12:45 pm – ANOTHER perfect red line transfer. Train is waiting at the top of the steps. If it were not Sunday and I was not scampering all over Chicago I would buy a few lottery tickets.
1:00 pm – My first and only mistake of the day. I hop off the red at Roosevelt and ATTEMPT to fly south on Michigan avenue. The folks in front of me compared our efforts to salmon swimming up-stream. I would say it was more like salmon swimming, up-rapids.
1:20 pm – I complete the two block walk…up rapids mostly no worse for wear.
1:25 pm – Here comes Emily with the finish line in site. She looks so strong you would think this was just a short stroll in the park for her. After yet another kiss, I run ahead of her and take the picture below. Who knew the marathon would give me so many chances to make out with my wife???
1:35 pm – An official marathon text alert informs me my wife has completed the Chicago marathon. WAY TO GO EM !!!
2:00 pm – I walk over a mile to meet Emily at “runner reunite.” I know you all have great sympathy for my hardship; what with 37,000+ other runners around me who ran 26.2 miles AND THEN had to walk that extra mile.
2:05 pm – Reunited with far and away the best athlete in my household!
2:15 pm – One last time, we grab a bus perfectly on time. Given that my wife is a trifle sore from her endeavors, this is a tremendous bit of final fortune.
5;30 pm – Through the magic of the digital video recorder I watch Suisham’s game winning field goal sink Philly and save the Steelers’ season. Totally irrelevant to the marathon but…I gotta be me.
The final tally
Emily – 26.2 Miles, 5 hours 27 minutes and one completed marathon. I could not be more proud of my wife who worked harder than you will ever know to accomplish this life-long goal. Not just the 9 months of training but many, many nights of stretching and rehab as well. I’ll keep the specifics private but will disclose that my wife ran today’s marathon with injuries that would have kept me from walking to the kitchen. No question who is the toughest person in our household.
Adam – 3.5 miles walked (or speed walked) 4 trips on the red line, 1 blue line, and 2 bus trips to reach 6 viewing destinations and the finish line on the course. Unofficially 16 kisses from my wife.
Fans yelling – “GO STEELERS” or something of comparable nature – At least 25.
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