The Rapid Demise of Kristopher Letang

There was a time, perhaps as recently as one year ago that Kris Letang appeared on the verge of superstardom.  He was a justifiable Norris Trophy candidate with blazing speed, and wondrous offensive talents.  Letang could play 25 minutes and positively influence the game in all three zones.

There was a time when Letang was so clearly and obviously the Pens best young defensemen that they traded away Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski and did not re-sign Sergei Gonchar.  Those moves landed the Penguins critical assets; Chris Kunitz, James Neal, and Matt Niskanen along with critically needed salary cap space.  They were moves that I fully supported and endorsed; in large part due to my personal faith in Letang.

That time appears to be over.

Letang is now considered the team’s weakest defensive link.  Instead of a third franchise superstar, he’s  viewed as a contractual albatross that will hold back the organization for years (8 to be exact).  Once the apple of Pierre McGuire’s eye; he’s is now a frequent target of Pierre’s on air, verbal assaults (more so than even Marc-Andre Fleury).  You can almost hear it in your mind, ”Kristopher Letang cannot make that play!”

It’s disturbing to consider the likelihood that Letang will remain a Penguin, at $7.25 million per while a potentially superior player in Niskanen will leave via free agency.  It’s frightening to consider how much other depth the Penguins will lose as they become progressively more top heavy.   

Let me clarify two crucial things here.  First, I was a huge Letang fan almost from the first time I saw him in a Penguin uniform.  I championed his promotion over the aforementioned disappointments Whitney and Goligoski.  I maintain that he played phenomenal hockey throughout the 2009 cup run and that his performance that year debunks the myth that he is incapable of playing defense at a high level.

Second, this analysis is wholly separate from the tragic stroke he suffered in January.  For a person his age to endure that kind of event is unfathomable.  Forget about Letang the hockey player.  We should all be thrilled that Letang the person appears to have made a full recovery.  For him to be back on the ice this soon is nothing short of a miracle.  Quite frankly, if I were Ray Shero, I would have been very uncomfortable putting Letang back in the line-up this soon; both for hockey reasons and health reasons.   

It’s been pointed out by people I greatly respect that we are seeing the same kinds of mistakes today that we saw from Letang before the stoke.  I cannot argue that point.  What I can argue is that a player coming off a stroke and a ten week layoff might struggle to fix those issues in the moment.  Even if Letang appears 100%, it seems perfectly within reason that his decision making would be affected, especially in the violent, high speed world of the National Hockey League.

In any event, I’ve come to two parallel conclusions on Letang.  The first is that his contract was a huge and potentially franchise crippling error in judgment. The second is that the Shero should explore any avenue; no matter how faint or unlikely, to moving him in the offseason.  It’s kind of like Roberto Luongo without the cap acceleration penalty issues.  Move him for anything; even if anything is ultimately nothing (or Joel Bouchard and Richard Littner, whichever is deemed less)

I am not simply availing myself the benefits of 20/20 hindsight.  I thought the contract was mistake the day it was signed, though not for the reasons some might think.  The Boston series was a red flag of course; turnovers galore and a stubborn refusal to make smart simple plays in key situations.  But all things being equal, I could have overlooked that as a fluky bad performance.

The reality of modern sports is you cannot judge a player simply on talent or potential.  You have to judge them on value for their salary cap dollar.  At face value I think the Pens overpaid for Letang but its worse when you consider the bigger economic picture.

The Pens are prohibitively top heavy against the cap, which is why they were trotting out half of Wilkes Barres in their bottom 5 all year.  They were already committed to $8.7 Million annually to Sid for a dozen years.  To my way of thinking, they could only afford one other high dollar, long-term contract.  The required a choice between Letang and Evgeni Malkin.  And to me there was no choice there at all.

For one thing, elite second line centers are a true rarity in the NHL.  I’ve learned that watching the Blackhawks repeated failures to back-up Jonathan Toews.  Malkin also provides a critical hedge against Crosby’s concussion and general injury woes. 

Of greater consequence however is that Shero has spent the last 5 years drafting almost exclusively talented young defensemen.  How does it make sense to have so many high end defense prospects in the organization and then put your franchise in salary cap purgatory to sign another?  Even if the Pens truly believed Letang was a Duncan Keith or Zdeno Chara caliber franchise defensemen I would question the deal.  And as much as I liked Letang before last May, even I never thought he was at that level.

All of that ignores the fact that the Pens have a potential poor man’s Nicklas Lidstrom on their roster in Olli Maata.  I have to believe they would not have signed Letang if they had any idea Maata would be this good, this fast.  Realistically you cannot blame Shero for that, or even for not foreseeing the incredible growth in Niskannen this season.   If Letang’s contract expired one year later we would not even be debating this.  The extension, the stroke, and the meteoric rises of Maata and Niskanen is best described as a confluence of truly unlucky timing.

The resulting Pens cap nightmare is eerily reminiscent of two past comparables.  One was the post lockout Tampa Bay Lightning who capped out on St’Louis, Lecavalier, and Richards and thus could not afford defense or goaltending.  The other is the 2010-11 Blackhawks who were forced to hold a post championship fire sale due to a comparably ill-conceived deal to Brian Campbell (a remarkably similar player).  The Hawks were rescued two years later only due to former GM Dale Tallon’s charitable, salary floor reclamation program in Miami.  We can only hope that some team out there would be so generous with Letang’s potential (and risk).

That assumes of course that Shero is willing to move him and I’m not even sure he is.  Trading Letang would be difficult, maybe impossible at face value but more so if Shero truly believe he’s a franchise player.  We’ve come to realize how critical puck moving defensemen are in today’s NHL, as long as they are paid the right price.  For my money (or Shero’s), Martin, Niskanen and Maata are far better bets.

I’m fairly sure I would not have believed that 12 months ago.

Penguin Playoff Hopes Ride on Fleury’s Redemption

Last May, about the time the Penguins’ season was going up in flames in Boston, I was absolutely convinced that Marc-Andre Fleury was finished in the Burgh.

It was not just about a goaltender having a bad playoff series or his team failing to meet justifiably lofty goals.  Both of those results could be explained in a vacuum.  This was about a goaltender enduring his second consecutive miserable first round performance for a franchise with Stanley Cup or bust expectations.  The fact that Tomas Vokoun rescued the Pens, at least long enough for his teammates to flat line against Boston only exacerbated the issue.

There is no sugar coating the obvious, Fleury was abysmal, just as he was a year earlier against Philly.  Keep in mind this evaluation is coming from a well-known Fleury defender.  His critics were far less accommodating of his performance.

There were some mildly passable excuses for MAF’s performance against the Goons in 2012.  Dan Bylsma clearly and obviously overplayed him that season (nothing like 4 starts in 6 nights in December) and the Pens had a catastrophic, team wide defensive meltdown in that series.  I still say the team collapsed in front of Fleury before he imploded, for whatever that is worth.

There was however no justification for last year's performance against the Islanders.  Fleury was well rested and the team in front of him was at least competent defensively.  He was coming off a brilliant regular season and even opened the playoffs with a shutout.  And then after just one shaky goal early in game 2 everything came unglued.  What followed was a mortifying parade of leaky goals, several of which he inexplicably kicked in to his own net.

By the end of game four, Bylsma had no choice but to switch goaltenders.  And when Fleury was given a second chance of sorts against Boston, he looked completely lost.  Given that precipitous fall, the overriding cup or bust pressure on the Pens, and the Fleury’s excessive salary cap figure I was almost positive he would be tending goal in Edmonton or Miami this season. 

Amazingly that did not happen. 

I’m not sure if it was true faith or the lack of a readily available alternative but the Pens stuck with Fleury.  And they were rewarded with what was, in my opinion, his second best season in the Burgh (behind only the 2010-11 year).  At face value he was brilliant, often carrying a team that was decimated by injuries and lacking any semblance of 3^rd and 4^th line depth.  A good argument could be made for him sharing the team MVP award with Sidney Crosby.  His brilliance this season stoodon its own, without consideration of the extenuating circumstances.

It was even more brilliant when you consider where he was a year ago and the pressure he was under this season as a result.  I still recall national media sites running stories and pasting up video of Fleury allowing a soft goal…IN A TRAINING CAMP SCRIMAGE.

Fleury often gets criticized for being mentally soft.  Admittedly that assessment is hard to dispute when he follows two straight brilliant regular seasons with apocalyptic post season meltdowns.  When you consider how low he was at the end of last season, it’s nothing short of miraculous that he put it back together.  Many athletes could not recover from such a fall, as least now without a change of scenery.  Fleury did so, right under the spotlight of his critics. 

It takes incredible strength of character to pull that off.  Fleury should be commended for how much of that he showed this season.

Alas the harsh reality is that as of this morning, none of it matters. 

It’s a fact of hockey life that goaltenders are always under pressure in the playoffs.  The pressure on Fleury however is astronomical.  He has literally reached a crossroads in his career; one where any meaningful evaluation of his performance beings in mid-April.  There is virtually nothing he can do in the regular season to dissuade his critics; most of whom accept that strong regular season play from him is a given.  It’s literally ALL about the post season for Marc-Andre Fleury.  

I’ve been watching sports for nearly 35 years and I honestly cannot remember another athlete who was under this type of post season pressure.  Fleury’s not alone under the microscope of course; at the very minimum he’s got a time share with Dan Bylsma, but the spotlight shines brightest on the Penguin net-minder.  I would be shocked if any reputable playoff preview does not lament the potential for a Fleury meltdown to take down the Pens.

Further compounding the issue is that this year’s Penguin team has some fairly obvious red flags.  Excepting Brandon Sutter, the 3^rd and 4^th lines are substandard for a championship contender.  They’ve struggled to find a winger to replace Pascal Dupuis.  And the team was far too dependent on special teams’ play and shootout victories for its regular season success.  For the first time since 87 and 71 missed the playoffs in 2011, the Penguins are justifiably not a Stanley Cup favorite.

For a team with such a make-up to have a deep run, or dare I suggest live up to the Stanley Cup aspirations of its fan base, Fleury must be nothing short of brilliant from start to finish.  I’m talking Tim Thomas 2011 or Jonathan Quick 2012 style brilliant.  Or better yet, Fleury 2008 brilliant.

Is the point clear yet?

To ratchet up the pressure a tad higher, Fleury is likely playing for his future in the Burgh.  The team is already excessively top heavy against the salary cap; a situation which further deteriorates next year when new contracts for Letang and Malkin kick in.  There is simply no room for a $5 Million per year goaltender if he cannot raise his game when it matters most.  And unlike last year, there is no safety net behind him.  It seems highly unlikely the Pens will turn to Vokoun (after a season of inactivity) or Jeff Zatkoff should MAF flounder again.  Simply put, the Penguins will sink or swim with #29.

For what it’s worth, I genuinely hope Fleury steps-up.  This goes beyond being a Penguin fan and understanding that Fleury’s ‘A’ game is a prerequisite for post season success.  The Flower by all accounts is one of the truly good guys in professional sports.  He seems to genuinely love playing the game.  And he’s had too much success in his career to be branded solely on his recent post season failures.  As a reminder, that success includes 289 regular season victories, two trips to the Stanley Cup finals, and one very memorable championship. He’s absolutely capable of being great when it matters most.

Nothing would make me happier than to see Fleury carry the Pens this post season. It would be a fabulous and deserved redemption story; one that seemed incomprehensible 10 months ago.  If that does not happen my prediction from last May likely comes to pass; a year later than expected.

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY PENGUIN…BLESSED BE THE PENGUIN, FOR IT IS GOOD.