The Rapid Demise of Kristopher Letang

There was a time, perhaps as recently as one year ago that Kris Letang appeared on the verge of superstardom.  He was a justifiable Norris Trophy candidate with blazing speed, and wondrous offensive talents.  Letang could play 25 minutes and positively influence the game in all three zones.

There was a time when Letang was so clearly and obviously the Pens best young defensemen that they traded away Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski and did not re-sign Sergei Gonchar.  Those moves landed the Penguins critical assets; Chris Kunitz, James Neal, and Matt Niskanen along with critically needed salary cap space.  They were moves that I fully supported and endorsed; in large part due to my personal faith in Letang.

That time appears to be over.

Letang is now considered the team’s weakest defensive link.  Instead of a third franchise superstar, he’s  viewed as a contractual albatross that will hold back the organization for years (8 to be exact).  Once the apple of Pierre McGuire’s eye; he’s is now a frequent target of Pierre’s on air, verbal assaults (more so than even Marc-Andre Fleury).  You can almost hear it in your mind, ”Kristopher Letang cannot make that play!”

It’s disturbing to consider the likelihood that Letang will remain a Penguin, at $7.25 million per while a potentially superior player in Niskanen will leave via free agency.  It’s frightening to consider how much other depth the Penguins will lose as they become progressively more top heavy.   

Let me clarify two crucial things here.  First, I was a huge Letang fan almost from the first time I saw him in a Penguin uniform.  I championed his promotion over the aforementioned disappointments Whitney and Goligoski.  I maintain that he played phenomenal hockey throughout the 2009 cup run and that his performance that year debunks the myth that he is incapable of playing defense at a high level.

Second, this analysis is wholly separate from the tragic stroke he suffered in January.  For a person his age to endure that kind of event is unfathomable.  Forget about Letang the hockey player.  We should all be thrilled that Letang the person appears to have made a full recovery.  For him to be back on the ice this soon is nothing short of a miracle.  Quite frankly, if I were Ray Shero, I would have been very uncomfortable putting Letang back in the line-up this soon; both for hockey reasons and health reasons.   

It’s been pointed out by people I greatly respect that we are seeing the same kinds of mistakes today that we saw from Letang before the stoke.  I cannot argue that point.  What I can argue is that a player coming off a stroke and a ten week layoff might struggle to fix those issues in the moment.  Even if Letang appears 100%, it seems perfectly within reason that his decision making would be affected, especially in the violent, high speed world of the National Hockey League.

In any event, I’ve come to two parallel conclusions on Letang.  The first is that his contract was a huge and potentially franchise crippling error in judgment. The second is that the Shero should explore any avenue; no matter how faint or unlikely, to moving him in the offseason.  It’s kind of like Roberto Luongo without the cap acceleration penalty issues.  Move him for anything; even if anything is ultimately nothing (or Joel Bouchard and Richard Littner, whichever is deemed less)

I am not simply availing myself the benefits of 20/20 hindsight.  I thought the contract was mistake the day it was signed, though not for the reasons some might think.  The Boston series was a red flag of course; turnovers galore and a stubborn refusal to make smart simple plays in key situations.  But all things being equal, I could have overlooked that as a fluky bad performance.

The reality of modern sports is you cannot judge a player simply on talent or potential.  You have to judge them on value for their salary cap dollar.  At face value I think the Pens overpaid for Letang but its worse when you consider the bigger economic picture.

The Pens are prohibitively top heavy against the cap, which is why they were trotting out half of Wilkes Barres in their bottom 5 all year.  They were already committed to $8.7 Million annually to Sid for a dozen years.  To my way of thinking, they could only afford one other high dollar, long-term contract.  The required a choice between Letang and Evgeni Malkin.  And to me there was no choice there at all.

For one thing, elite second line centers are a true rarity in the NHL.  I’ve learned that watching the Blackhawks repeated failures to back-up Jonathan Toews.  Malkin also provides a critical hedge against Crosby’s concussion and general injury woes. 

Of greater consequence however is that Shero has spent the last 5 years drafting almost exclusively talented young defensemen.  How does it make sense to have so many high end defense prospects in the organization and then put your franchise in salary cap purgatory to sign another?  Even if the Pens truly believed Letang was a Duncan Keith or Zdeno Chara caliber franchise defensemen I would question the deal.  And as much as I liked Letang before last May, even I never thought he was at that level.

All of that ignores the fact that the Pens have a potential poor man’s Nicklas Lidstrom on their roster in Olli Maata.  I have to believe they would not have signed Letang if they had any idea Maata would be this good, this fast.  Realistically you cannot blame Shero for that, or even for not foreseeing the incredible growth in Niskannen this season.   If Letang’s contract expired one year later we would not even be debating this.  The extension, the stroke, and the meteoric rises of Maata and Niskanen is best described as a confluence of truly unlucky timing.

The resulting Pens cap nightmare is eerily reminiscent of two past comparables.  One was the post lockout Tampa Bay Lightning who capped out on St’Louis, Lecavalier, and Richards and thus could not afford defense or goaltending.  The other is the 2010-11 Blackhawks who were forced to hold a post championship fire sale due to a comparably ill-conceived deal to Brian Campbell (a remarkably similar player).  The Hawks were rescued two years later only due to former GM Dale Tallon’s charitable, salary floor reclamation program in Miami.  We can only hope that some team out there would be so generous with Letang’s potential (and risk).

That assumes of course that Shero is willing to move him and I’m not even sure he is.  Trading Letang would be difficult, maybe impossible at face value but more so if Shero truly believe he’s a franchise player.  We’ve come to realize how critical puck moving defensemen are in today’s NHL, as long as they are paid the right price.  For my money (or Shero’s), Martin, Niskanen and Maata are far better bets.

I’m fairly sure I would not have believed that 12 months ago.

Dan Bylsma's Last Shot

The Stanley Cup finals started last night with a truly sensational game between Chicago and Boston.  Recency bias and hyperbole make for a bad combination so I’ll resist the urge quantify its greatness.  Suffice to say it was the kind of game that drives many of us to believe that there is nothing better in sports than post season hockey.  For me it had everything; everything except the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That is ironic because yesterday marked the 4 year anniversary of arguably the greatest game in Penguins’ history.  Their gut wrenching game 7 victory in Detroit was perhaps the seminal moment for a franchise that has enjoyed far greater success than it’s credited.

In the aftermath of their elusive third championship the club’s future potential seemed boundless.  A once in a generation assemblage of young stars had matured to full potential, winning a Stanley Cup well before their time.  The general manager was locking in those stars on manageable long-term contracts.  And for the first time in their history, they seemed to have the perfect head coach to steer the ship.  There was every reason to believe that cup celebrations would be the norm for this group.

And yet as the finals kicked off last night the only Penguin discussion we were contemplating was Ray Shero’s emphatic endorsement of Dan Byslma as his coach for next season.  It’s a worthwhile debate, especially since I considered Disco Dan’s continued employment an even money proposition at best when I awoke on Wednesday.

Taken in a vacuum, one can just as easily conclude that Bylsma is or is not responsible for the Pens crash and burn performance against Boston.  His supporters state that he cannot be blamed for the sudden and complete disappearance of the team’s offensive stars.  His detractors state that he must be held accountable for the club’s lackluster play and lack of composure in the first two games of the series; and for getting swept with perhaps the most talented roster in the NHL.  Both arguments are accurate to a point.

I made it clear on Monday that my biggest issue with Bylsma was consistent lack of discipline shown by his team over the entire playoff run.  It manifested last year against Philly. And it manifested on several occasions before the conference finals; most notably with the inexcusable short-handed goal the Pens allowed to Ottawa in the waning seconds of game 3.  But it was never more brutally obvious than in the first two games against the Bruins. 

The Penguins ardently refused to make the smart simple plays necessary to succeed this time of year.  As noted in Monday’s blog, I’ve watched Chicago’s defensemen repeatedly defuse pressure in their own zone with simple bank passes of the boards.  In contrast the Penguins have Kris Letang, the Brett Favre of NHL defensemen, constantly trying to stickhandle through pressure or worse yet, throw blind backhand passes up the middle of the ice.   

At any given moment, the players are responsible for not executing properly.  When the same issue continues unabated for two years it falls primarily on the coach.

Given that, Bylsma should not be evaluated in the vacuum of one series; rather by his overall body of work.  And that is an eminently complex affair, as Bylsma’s track record is emminently complex. 

If it were simply the juxtaposition of regular season success against playoff disappointment it would be an easy call.  It’s not.  Not when the same coach who oversaw four consecutive post season flame outs also lead one of the great championship runs in NHL history.  Not when this year’s loss, as disappointing as it was, occurred in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This situation best parallels Bill Cowher and the Steelers, circa January 2005.  The franchise was at a crossroads after Cowher’s 15-1 team was blown out of Heinz Field by New England in the AFC Championship game.  It marked the 4^th time in 14 years that Cowher’s team lost an AFC title game at home.  And it continued a confounding trend of regular season dominance followed by playoff collapse.  At that time there was fairly compelling, albeit circumstantial evidence that Cowher simply could not lead the Steelers to a championship.

The Steelers stuck it out with Cowher in 2005 and he ultimately delivered.  In so doing they established their franchise as a model of organizational stability.   That is in stark contrast to the Penguins who for most of their history have treated coaches as interchangeable parts.

So I salute the Penguins for once embracing stability over chaos.  I salute them for finally accepting the possibility that the players should be held accountable as much if not more so than the coach.  This is very much a new concept at the New Energy Barn and would seem to indicate a maturation of the organization.  It’s also a testament to the coaching street cred Bylsma earned though winning that championship in 2009.         

I do wonder however if the Penguins are standing not so much behind Bylsma as they are Sidney Crosby (and to a lesser degree Evgeni Malkin).  This is an organization with a track record of terrible coaching decisions made solely to appease their superstars.  How else do you justify firing Scotty Bowman for Eddie Johnston or in any way, shape, or form hiring Ivan Hlinka?  Given that history, and Mario Lemieux’s current ownership percentage, it’s not beyond consideration that Bylsma’s greatest coaching asset is that he keeps Sid the Kid happy.

I’m not saying definitely that is the case, but I cannot rule it out, especially when Bylsma’s extension precedes Malkin’s by just 24 hours.  We learned from the Johnston and Hlinka debacles that hiring coaches solely to placate superstars is a recipe for post season disappointment.  It’s even greater a concern when you factor in that Crosby, as much as anybody in the organization need to step up his post season performance going forward.  That is not going to happen if the head coach is in his pocket.

Regardless, the decision is made and Bylsma is staying, at least for one more year.  I am neither endorsing nor disputing it for all the reasons mentioned above.  I’m not yet convinced that Bylsma is the problem or the solution to this team’s ills.  That said, results speak for themselves and Bylsma’s window is clearly inching towards closure.

I will say this.  The Penguins cannot trot out the same coach, same system, and same players that have endured four consecutive playoff failures.  Most coaches would not survive such a run; especially when the last two were catastrophic in nature.  The team has refused to embrace the most critical components of playoff hockey success in spite of giving continual lip service to doing just that.  This means either that Bylsma is failing to deliver the message or the players are failing to receive it.  By hitching his wagon to the head coach, Shero is essentially stating the latter.

This means Shero absolutely must make personnel changes in the offseason.  He must deploy a better and more committed group of defensive players around 87 and 71.  He must find players who will embrace the need for structured and disciplined hockey, even when playing with superior offensive talent.  And he probably needs to accept that it is financially untenable to keep Letang or Marc-Andre Fleury on the roster at this point.

Even assuming such changes, Bylsma still needs to get the message through to his star players.  The Blackhawks have proved throughout the playoffs that a team with high end talent can be successful in the post season by playing the right way.  Doing it against Boston last night further crystalized the point.  Bylsma has been given one last shot to get that message across.  If he fails, it will likely be his last.

Penguins Post Mortem, Toughness and Discipline Needed

I read an absolutely stunning statistics in Dejan Kovacevic’s column in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review last Friday.  He pointed out that through the first three games of the series against Boston; a span including nearly 11 full periods of hockey, the Penguins generated THREE rebound shots on Tuukka Rask. 

That’s not a misprint...THREE rebound shots.  And one of those came off the stick of noted sniper Craig Adams.

I sensed that this was the case just watching the first three games so I focused in on it in game 4.  Other than the Penguins' desperation flurry at the end of the game, I do not recall a single rebound shot the entire game.

There will be an infinite amount of post mortem analysis this summer on the Penguins latest post season melt down.  Multiple theories will be posited, multiple scapegoats served up.  All will have some measure of validity but to my way of thinking, you need not look beyond that mind numbing rebound statistic as the starting point. 

From a micro standpoint it tells you that the Penguins had basically zero net front presence in this series and that the Boston defense, specifically Zdeno Chara dominated the Pittsburgh forwards.  I think that’s a pretty fair assessment when you consider the Penguins scored just 2 goals the series, after potting 47 in the first two rounds. 

It’s also a good explanation for why Rask appears to have suddenly morphed in to the greatest goaltender in NHL history.  Some will suggest the Pens once again got beat again by a hot goaltender, a theory I categorically dismiss.  Pretty much any top line NHL goalie is going to look that way when they are not dealing with screens, deflections and second chances.  Quite simply, the Penguins made Rask’s job far too easy.

From a macro standpoint, it tells you the biggest problem the Pittsburgh Penguins have as a team.  Namely, they are not tough enough.

Let me be clear on this, every member of that team is tougher than 99.9% of society at large.  I’m not questioning their heart or manhood.  Most people would not survive one day of what these warriors go through in the Stanley Cup playoffs. 

That does not change the fact that relative to the other ELITE teams in the NHL, the Penguins are simply not tough enough.  They play too much of a finesse game, in a league that no longer tolerates finesse.  We can argue until the end of time whether that’s the makes sense; I personally find it astounding how hard the NHL works to prevent its stars from being stars.  Regardless, we have to deal in reality.

Toughness has always been a prerequisite for post season success.  With the possible exception of Carolina in 2006, speedy perimeter skill teams do not win Stanley Cups.  As talented as the 2008-09 Penguins were what always stands out in my mind is how hard they battled in the finals against Detroit, especially in the last two games.

But in today’s NHL, toughness it’s more important than ever.  Even with all the changes introduced to maintain speed and flow in the game, the teams that succeed in the post season are the toughest to play against.  Defensive systems are more advanced than ever and talent and strategy is simply not enough to beat them.  You have to flat out work or better yet, out battle teams to beat them.

I simply did not see that compete level from the Penguins in this series, even in games 3 and 4.

Such commitment is absolutely possible from a high end skill hockey team.  It’s why the Chicago Blackhawks are in the Stanley Cup finals in spite of playing arguably the NHL’s toughest defensive team in the 3^rd round.  The LA Kings makes you work for every inch of open ice.  You cannot beat a team like that without talent but that talent must be willing to sell out 100% every night to do so.  Chicago matched LA’s work ethic, physicality and defensive presence throughout the series.  Ultimately their high end talent came to the forefront and made the difference in games 4 and 5.

The Penguins superior offensive talent makes them nearly invincible in the regular season; because most teams on most nights do not raise their work ethic to the same level they do in April and May.  They looked just as invincible in the first two rounds thanks to fortuitous match-ups with teams that gave their super skilled players an abundance of open ice to work with.  The problem was that when Boston forced them to earn their ice, they came up woefully short.

It took the Pens two embarrassing home losses before they realized how tough they would have to play in the conference finals.  And even when they figured in out in game three, they still demonstrated an alarming lack of net front presence and/or ability to win battles.  I’ve heard a lot of talk about Jarome Iginla being used improperly by Dan Bylsma.  What I have not heard enough of is how many times Iginla was knocked off the puck and/or lost a one on one battle in the offensive zone.

I also have not heard nearly enough about the frequent net front fly byes from Neal, Kunitz, and Morrow that were far too often the norm in this series.  For all the criticism of Evgeni Malkin, he fired 21 shots in 4 games and created numerous grade A scoring opportunities.  How many times did a Pittsburgh player skate right past a rebound Malkin created?  The Penguins simply had zero net front presence to finish it off. 

To that end, I put as much if not more blame on the Penguins power forwards and grinders than I do on the Crosby, Letang, and Malkin.  If you think I’m off base on this, consider that the Blackhawks are going to the Stanley Cup finals even though Jonathan Toews has just one goal in the post season.  Consider how critical Max Talbot, Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy, and even Miro Satan were to the Pens cup run in 2009.

Physicality was not the only issue; lack of discipline was every bit the concern.  Going back to the Islanders’ series I was bothered by the mind boggling number of defensive zone turnovers by the Penguins, especially Kris Letang.  I heard the Pens talk over and over about making smarter simpler plays.  And yet there was Letang in game 2, right after a critical penalty kill, making a horrendous and amateurish turnover that lead to a game changing goal.  The play was awful enough at face value; even worse when you consider the payoff for success was a potential Brooks Orpik breakaway.

That kind of mental error, which we saw over and over again, is inexcusable at this level.  I blame the players for failure to execute but also the coaching staff for not getting the message through.  Again, I concentrated on how the Blackhawks defense played game 5 against Los Angeles.  The Chicago backline is every bit as skilled as the Penguins and yet time after time after time they made smart simple clearing plays off the boards.  Credit the players but also credit Coach Joel Quenneville for getting the message through on how the team had to play.

If Bylsma is unemployed before next season, the lack of discipline repeatedly demonstrated by his players will be the primary reason.  What Ray Shero has to decide is did Bylsma fail to get the message across or does he have players who are unwilling to accept it?  That decision will determine whether Bylsma returns and/or Kris Letang gets the monster contract extension required to keep him in the Burgh.

Either way, it will make for a long and difficult offseason.  I refuse to call a final four appearance a complete failure but it’s unquestionably a disappointment.  As a result, the franchise is at a critical cross road.  Their problems are eminently fixable.  The question is how…and with whom.

The End of the Line for Marc-Andre Fleury

Over the years I’ve been a passionate supporter, and defender of Marc-Andre Fleury.

That has not always been easy given the legion of Fleury critics amongst both Penguin fans and the local and national media.  There were many who chose to blame Fleury for every Penguin ill while downplaying or even ignoring his contributions to their success.  I never understood it; especially when you combined Fleury’s track record of victories with his eminently likeable personality.

So let me start off by acknowledging what should be but is not assumed to be obvious; Marc-Andre Fleury was a critical component to the Penguins success over the past seven years.  More to the point, he was a critical component of back-to-back Stanley Cup finals runs and the franchise’s elusive 3^rd championship in 2009.  His game 7 saves on future hall of famers Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Lidstrom are rightfully considered the stuff of legend.

He was part of the foundation; a core superstar.  There was every reason to believe he would mind the nets in the Burgh for another decade.  And as we sit here today; I see it as unlikely he will be a Penguin next month.

Simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury is playing himself right out of Pittsburgh.

Another concession to the obvious; goaltending is fairly low on the list of reasons the Penguins were man handled by Boston in game 2.  Before we get to Fleury or Tomas Vokoun, a good hard look needs to be taken at Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and just about every other front line player on the roster.  The head coach and general manager are hardly above scrutiny either.

That does not change the fact that the Marc-Andre Fleury we once knew seems long gone, at least when the season becomes best 4 out of 7.  What remains is a goaltender with zero post season confidence, one that seems incapable of making even the most basic saves on a consistent basis.  It’s a stunning and perhaps unprecedented fall for an elite Pittsburgh athlete in my lifetime.

Fleury’s issues are not about physical ability and I think we all know it.  There are few goaltenders in hockey as athletically gifted as MAF; a point he continually demonstrates with superior regular season play.  Fleury’s critics like to point out the overall talent on the Penguins or his comparatively pedestrian statistics (excluding wins of course).  In so doing, they conveinently overlook the Penguins often lackadaisical approach to defense.  Does anybody truly believe that Brian Elliott would post a 1.95 goals against average playing for this team?

No, Fleury’s current post season issues are unequivocally between the ears.  His confidence seems to come undone after a bad goal or two and once it does his entire game breaks down. I’m not talking about struggling to control rebounds or giving up the occasional soft goal.  I’m talking about a goaltender that seems to lose even the most basic constructs of his position in the post season.  When you juxtapose that against his regular season play and early career playoff success, it’s impossible to come to any other conclusion.

The irony is that this is the exact criticism Fleury faced during the early part of his career; even though it was totally unfounded by the results on the ice.  I wrote an impassioned defense of Fleury after he lead the Penguins to the 2009 Cup pointing out that but for one bit of bad luck at the World Junior Championships, there was nothing in his actual resume that substantiated his reputation as a big game flake.  Fleury’s performance from 2006-07 through that 7^th game in Detroit was exemplary; especially given the team’s aforementioned aversion to strong defensive hockey.

You could make a convincing argument that Fleury’s post season play was trending downward in 2010 and 2011; although I maintain he played better in the hopeless Tampa series than he gets credit for.  In both the Montreal and Tampa series there was at least a debatable premise regarding Fleury’s level of culpability.  You could argue accurately that he was not the reason the Pens lost either series; but just as accurately that he did not consistently raise his level to be the difference maker.   I would distill it down to this; he was part of the problem in those losses but by no means the root of it.  

The issue the last two years is that the quality of his post season work is no longer debatable.  He’s gone from trending downward to a complete train wreck.  His play has become indefensible; in spite of meager efforts from his coach and teammates to do just that.  Keep in mind this critique is coming from an unabashed Fleury fan; one who was often branded an apologist in my persistent battles with his critics.

To be fair, the Penguins played HISTORICALLY bad defense in front of Fleury in last year’s loss to Philly.  They broke down first and he follow suit with a meltdown of his own.  This year he collapsed of his own volition, even if the team’s defensive work against the Islanders was less than inspired.  Vokoun’s strong performance in relief made that abundantly clear. 

My opinions about Vokoun’s abilities are also a matter of public record on this blog.  I’ve never thought him better than a second tier starter, if that.  Fleury at his best is the superior goaltender.  So it should not be taken lightly when I state that for better or for worse, Vokoun should be the only option the Penguins consider in goal the remainder of the post season, however long that should be. 

That is exactly how I expect this to play out. 

Dan Bylsma is smart enough not to bury a popular and accomplished veteran in the media and thus tends to downplays Fleury’s struggles at every turn.  In reality, I believe he’s lost all confidence in MAF, an issue no doubt compounded by concerns about his own jobs security.  No matter Bylsma’s public disposition on the topic or the journalistic meanderings of Puck Daddy and others, I cannot fathom that Fleury will start another game; barring injury to Vokoun.  The hope is that the team rediscovers its form and that Vokoun for lack of a better term can “Osgood” them to a championship.

I truly believe that last night was Fleury’s last shot.   In a game where the situation was already bleak he was given one last opportunity to resuscitate his game. The hope was that Fleury would rediscover his 2008/2009 post season form; or for that matter his 2013 regular season form, either of which is a better option than Vokoun.  Instead Fleury emphatically reaffirmed Bylsma’s decision to take away his net with another very shaky effort.

In the bigger picture, Fleury’s time in the Burgh is likely at its end.  The team as currently constructed is in the heart of their championship window.  They cannot support a goaltender who in back-to back years has demonstrated a profound inability to perform in the post season; let alone one who takes $5 Million annually off their salary cap.  The issue is magnified against the specter of another disappointing post season finish and the team’s imposing future contact obligations.  Kudos to Ray Shero for having the foresight to hedge his bets this season with Vokoun but realistically, he’s not the long-term answer either.

Fleury will land on his skates; he’s too talented not too.  And a new, lower pressure environment might be exactly what he needs to rebuild his fragile confidence.   I hope it happens for him, I just do not see it happening in the Burgh.

A Brutal, Perspective Challenging Penguin Loss

A significant part of my maturation as a sports fan has been the development of what the more enlightened among us might call, “perspective.” Which is to say I’ve learned, with all due respect to Ilya Bryzgolav to view sports in the proper context of its overall importance to the universe.

To be clear, I’m not one who says you can’t be upset about sports simply because there are terrorists or starving people in the world. Those are horrible things; far worse than what happens on an any athletic field. At the same time if you love your teams and they are important to you, it’s okay to hurt after a difficult loss. Nowhere is it written that you cannot feel sadness simply because there is greater sadness in the world.

The difference between Adam 2012 versus say, Adam 1992 is how much I let those losses affect me. It took me days to shake off the horrible, awful, loss that should never be spoken of to the Islanders in 1993. Some would say I’m still not totally over it. In contrast, I was for the most part able to put the Steelers’ most recent Super Bowl loss behind me 24 hours later after a therapeutic lunch with Doug (Doug?).

I take great pride and comfort in my maturation and new found perspective on sports. No matter how bad a loss is, I like to get up the next day and move on with life. There are just too many other things that are FAR more important.

So I’ll be the first to admit, I’m more than a bit shaken by how much last night's Penguin loss is disturbing me. Honestly, I cannot remember a Pittsburgh sporting event that upset me this much since the Steelers lost the 2001 AFC Championship game at home to New England. The loss was the last thing I thought of before going to bed and the first thing I thought of when I woke up this morning. The former is okay for Adam 2012, the latter is much more Adam 1992.

Simply put, I cannot fathom a more brutal start to a playoff series than blowing a 3-0 lead at home, to your most bitter rival. Losing game 1 of a series is not that big a deal. Losing it in this fashion absolutely is. A game like this can feel like two losses in a best of seven series, given the magnitude of the emotional swing.  And the most disconcerting thing, beyond the obvious, is that is the third time in a month the Pens have blown a 2 goal plus lead against the Eastern Pennsylvania Orange and Black Goon Squad.

There are a combination of factors driving the anger and frustration of me and most of the Penguin fan base this morning. One is the pattern, the fact that the Pens keep losing these games to Philly and keep losing them in the same way. They dominate early, and then Philly just takes the game away from them. This pattern includes an alarming disparity in special teams play. The Pens power play continues to blow opportunities to put games away and the Goon Squad is carving up their vaunted penalty killing unit with shocking ease.

The second factor is Philly’s shocking dominance at the New Energy Barn. It’s getting to the point where the Pens almost have home ice disadvantage. It’s bad enough for a team to have an unfettered belief in their ability to beat you. To have it in your barn is even worse. This is compounded by the fact that there was a Stanley Cup caliber atmosphere in the building last night. Word is the Goons were chanting “this is our house” after the game. Can any Penguin fan hear that and not be physically nauseous?

Finally there are expectations. Simply put, when a team has as much depth and talent as the Pens do the only reasonable expectation is the Stanley Cup. It’s just inconceivable that such a team could crash and burn like the Penguins did last night. To say it was not a championship caliber performance understates this issue. The real issue is that championship caliber teams rarely allow such thing to happen.

Throw all these factors together and you’ve got one seriously unhappy Habe this morning.

What bothers me the most is that the Penguins clearly took their foot off the gas with a three goal lead. The all-powerful, all knowing hockey savant Pierre McGuire pointed this out while the Pens were still leading by two goals. He made it clear that the Pens had gone in to a defensive shell; pulled back on their forecheck and stopped attacking. He also made it clear that this was happening, in his opinion, far too early.

Reasonable people can debate Mr. McGuire’s abilities as an announcer (or whether Brooks OrPECK should run him through the glass) but the man does know his hockey. And when he points something out that clear and obvious, moments before the house comes crashing down you have to take notice. This is not simply a factor of the Goons grabbing some momentum and turning the game around. This is about the Pens making what appears to be a disastrous strategic decision that could impact their entire season.

There are plenty of more micro issues to fret from last night’s game which I will not rehash here. The reality of hockey, or any sport, is that you can find good and bad in virtually every game, win or lose. Great teams balance this and find a way to win. When its all said and done, the Penguins had a tailor made opportunity to put the game away with an early third period power play and failed (a point I made to Emily just after it ended). As noted above that’s been a disturbing, season long trend against Philly.  And the Pens cannot win this series unless they AT LEAST even this out.

My wife has reminded me repeatedly this morning that it is only one game. And she’s 1,000% right. We learned in 2009 that even after the worst of moments (game 5 in Detroit); a team can turn things around in spectacular fashion. That said, there is a disturbing quality to this loss. This is far more reminiscent to me of the Pens comeback in game 1 of the 1992 Stanley Cup finals against Chicago. The Hawks had won 11 straight playoff games coming in to that series. After that comeback win, the Pens just seemed to be inside their heads. The series was competitive after that but you never got the sense that the outcome was in doubt.

That’s what bothers me most. The Pens most hated and bitter rival seems to be very much in their heads. Championship teams begin with talent, but there is so much more to the equation. A big part of that is the mental edge; a a certainty of belief that you can overcome any obstacle and win any game. The Goon squad seems to have that belief right now, especially in regards to the Pens. And unless they turn things around quickly, meaning in game 2, I have concerns about whether the Pens can change that. 

The Pens had Philly and their skittish goaltender on the ropes last night.  In the span of 30 minutes they not only let them off but got knocked to the canvas themselves.  That is a monumentAL emotional swing.  If they are truly a championship team, they will dig deep and overcome.  If they are not, it could be a stunningly short post season in the Burgh.

My Case for Jaromir Jagr's Return

All blogged up and nothing to write about it. Thus is the curse of the annual sports dead zone which starts when the Stanley Cup finals conclude and ends on opening Sunday of the NFL season, when or if that occurs.

In the interim we get NHL hot stove talk mixed in with baseball; lots and lots of baseball. If you happen to live in a city where baseball thrives, that’s a palatable situation. If you happen to live in Chicago after growing up in Pittsburgh, well let’s just say I’m praying for a timely end to the NFL’s ludicrous work stoppage.

You think it’s a coincidence this blog has gone from a weekly to a monthly publication since Memorial Day?

Thankfully all hope is not lost; not with specter of Jaromir Jagr’s return to Pittsburgh. That would be 39 year old Jaromir Jagr who has spent the last three years plying his trade in Russia. That’s the same Jagr who for the better part of a decade has been treated with Hossa like disdain by most Penguin fans.

Of course that’s also the Jaromir Jagr who for 15 years was one of the greatest offensive players in NHL history. The same Jagr who was an integral part of two Stanley Cup champions in Pittsburgh; the same Jagr who dominated the NHL in the 90s and kept the Pens afloat as their talent was gradually siphoned off. This is the Jaromir Jagr whose virtuoso brilliance motived me to pen the attached blog entry below two years ago. 

http://ahaberman35.livejournal.com/6810.html

And yes that’s the same Jagr who could be moody, pouty, and selfish almost on a whim. The Jagr who was a disaster as captain (though generally ok before that) and alienated most of the Penguin fans base on the way out of the Burgh. The same player who is indirectly responsible for Kris Beech wearing a Penguin uniform.

All of which is to admit that the circumstances of Jagr’s potential return are a fair bit complex.

So let’s simplify it.

First off, forget the past; the good, the bad, and the ugly. For my money Jagr is second only to Mario Lemieux in the annals of Penguin history but that is irrelevant today. The Pens are hoping he can contribute 25 goals or so and breathe life in to their morbid power play. The only relevant question is whether he can do that now; not what he could do in 1995 or did do in 2001.

Which also means forgetting Jagr’s acrimonious departure. It means forgetting the pouting, the dying alive and hardest of all, the carnage that was left behind. It’s water under the bridge now. The Penguins have moved well beyond it as has Jagr. The rest of us should join them.

For the record, I maintain that the treatment of Jagr since he left the Burgh has been disgraceful; a rare blight on an otherwise terrific fan base. Jagr is not a candidate for sainthood but he’s not Barry Bonds either. His departure from Pittsburgh, with little tangible return was inevitable; a point that was reinforced by the Alexie Kovalev deja vu deal two years later. The entire situation could have been handled with more grace on both ends but Jagr has been wrongly cast as the man who torched the Pens franchise. In truth, that ship had already sailed.

Jagr is an all time great Penguin who should be celebrated as such. If returning to Pittsburgh helps bring this about while burying what I consider a shameful part of Penguin history, that’s a nice ancillary benefit.

Second, the Penguins need Jagr; or at least someone with his current skill set. In a painfully thin free agent year where Tyler Kenney is highly sought after; old number 68 is likely their best hope.

Assuming (and praying) for the return to full health of Crosby and Malkin, this is a team with two brilliant centers and nary an elite offensive winger. If that evaluation sounds familiar, it’s because I’ve been regurgitating some variation it for the better part of three years.

Do you ever dream about what Sid the Kid could do with a legitimate 40 goal scorer on his wing. Notwithstanding my well documented issues with Marian Hossa, think back to the results when he and Sid played together in 2008. I’m not saying Jagr can be that good at his age; but he can be a lot better than Pascal Dupuis, Tyler Kennedy or Eric Tangradi. This assumes of course that Jagr does not sign a one year deal with Detroit because “it gives him the best chance to win the Stanley Cup” (oh the humanity).

We have lived through three years where Chris Kunitz was FAR AND AWAY the Penguins’ best offensive winger. Let me repeat that…Chris Kunitz. The guy who went from April to November 2009 without scoring (or at least it seemed that way). And while I applauded and fully endorsed the acquisition of James Neal; it’s hard to be too excited about a guy who scored three goals in his last 50 or so games last season. I’m expecting better this year (worse is hard to comprehend) but l admit my Neal optimism has been tarnished a bit.

Beyond that it’s an eclectic combination of checking line caliber wingers and hopeful but uncertain prospects. For a team that has legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations, that situation is not acceptable. The Pens are too good and have too much upside to be so reliant on the two headed monster.

And I have devoted barely a sentence to discussing the power play; a unit that is disturbingly bad with Malkin and Crosby and flat out unwatchable without them. I have to believe on some level that Jagr could benefit the man advantage. It seems inconceivable he could hurt it. The Pens will not win the Cup if Kris Letang spends another year reprising Mike Eurozione’s role during the early training days of Herb Brooks’ miracle team. AGAIN !!!

To reiterate, the Pens need Jagr and they need him bad.

I’m talking about the Jagr of today, not the Jagr of ten years ago. They need a talented winger with legitimate 25 goal ability regardless of who his center is. They need somebody other than 87 or 71 who can change the game offensively. Even if Neal or Tangradi is the real deal, neither has that ability. And unlike his last few years in the Burgh, Jagr will not be asked to carry the team on the ice or the burden of leadership off it.

Yes there are risks involved but consider that over the last three years Ray Shero out of necessity has played musical chairs with his wingers. If we as Penguin fans were willing to accept and endorse the risks implicit in signing Miro Satan, Ruslan Fedotenko, and for the love of all that’s good and holy Alex Ponikarovsky, why not a clearly superior player in the same role? I’m willing to wager that Jagr right now is better than any of those players in their prime. And he’s certainly as good as Bill Guerin was when he arrived in the Burgh.

Please resist comparisons to Kovalev version 2011. That was a desperation acquisition by Shero hoping to catch short-term lightning in a bottle. The Pens would NEVER have made that move with 87 and 71 healthy. Kovy was clearly washed up before he arrived in the Burgh and let’s be honest; even in his prime was not exactly touted for his work ethic. Kovalev at his best was an elite talent; Jagr an elite player.

Obviously the money has to work. If the Dead Wings or Habs wants to offer Jagr $5 Million per there is not much the Pens can do about that. Jagr once said he would take the league minimum to play for Mario Lemieux. That’s more than charitable but I’ll settle for getting him in at $3.5 Million or less. Then we can leave the other roster decisions, including Kennedy and Max Talbot in Shero’s capable hands.

The ball is now in Jaromir’s court; all we can do is wait and hope. Thankfully or sadly, at this time of year there is not much else for sports fans to do.

The De-Evolution of the Pittsburgh Penguins

While most of the sports world was watching the latest incarnation of college football’s pretend national championship, I was enduring the Penguins second third period collapse against Boston in two months. The epic break down brought back painful flashbacks, though not so much to the previous incarnation in November.

No, I was flashing back to the late 1980s, or just about the time Sidney Crosby entered the world. In those days the Pittsburgh Penguins were plain and simply Mario Lemieux. If he did not dominate, the Pens did not win. If he did not play, the Pens did not have a chance.

We always understood that if the Pens were going to be more than a hockey carnival act, they needed to develop a core of great players around Lemieux. That process started in 1987 with Paul Coffey and continued as a spectacular array of stars and roll players were added over five seasons. Even with that, the Penguins evolved in to a true championship team only when they were good enough to win without Le Magnifique. They did that for half of the 1990-91 season and four critical playoff wins in the 1992 Cup run.

It’s a testament to Lemieux’s remarkable brilliance that we actually believed he could single handedly carry those mid 80s teams to Stanley Cup glory. Mario’s presence made a fairly mediocre team look playoff caliber on almost any given regular season night. We should not lose site of that reality as Crosby rekindles a Lemieux like dominance two decades later.

We are currently witnessing what might be called the de-evolution of the Penguins. The Penguins of early 90s slowly became less and less dependent on their superstar. The Penguins of the 2010s are slowly becoming more and more dependent on theirs. Witness their inept offensive performance without Crosby over the last three games.

To be honest, I’m not shocked by this development. The Crosby-less Penguins are being exposed for what they are, a team with way too many grinder forwards and not nearly enough scorers. The problem is compounded because neither Evgeni Malkin or Jordan Staal is playing anywhere near their ability offensively. Staal’s performance is partially excusable considering he is still recovering from injury. Geno’s continuing struggles are admittedly much harder to understand and significant part of my de-evolution theory.

Regardless, the Pens are fighting an uphill battle offensively. Watching these games without Crosby it’s not hard to understand why. No fewer than nine of the 12 forwards playing are 3rd or 4th line caliber. And that charitably assumes that Staal is a legitimate top six offensive forward which he has yet to conclusively demonstrate. You could reasonably argue that Malkin is the only top six offensive talent in the line-up right now.

This is the risk of building the team’s offense primarily around two superstars. Lose either one of them and the team takes a step backward. Lose Crosby and it’s a giant step.

To be fair, there was no way the Penguins were going to continue to play at their November and December level. A slip was inevitable with or without number 87. The team was playing close to perfect hockey, driven primarily by Crosby’s brilliant play during his 25 game scoring streak. Crosby’s work was as impressive an extended performance as I’ve seen in the NHL since Lemieux was last making a mockery of the game a decade ago.

And it was in no way sustainable.

It is not feasible in today’s NHL to win a Stanley Cup on the back of one superstar, no matter how incredible he is. Defensemen are too good and defensive systems are too strong. A team that depends offensively on one player is destined for an early playoff exit.

Its one thing to score eight goals on a random Wednesday night in January against Tampa. It’s quite another to score three or four in an elimination game at Philadelphia.

We’ve already seen Detroit and sadly Montreal contain or even shut down Crosby in a seven game series. Only once were the Penguins able to overcome this, in the 2009 finals. That occurred in large part because Malkin was performing as brilliantly as Crosby at that time. Notwithstanding that we have rarely seen that version of Geno over the last year and a half; it remains unreasonable to expect two players to continually carry this offense.

I’ve suspected this all season but it was masked by the team’s success and Sid’s other worldly play. Seeing the Penguins without Crosby has crystallized it in my mind. This team simply does not have enough offense to win a Stanley Cup. Every team needs a Max Talbot and a Matt Cooke to win a Stanley Cup; but you can’t win one with nine of them.

Now more than ever, I’m convinced that we will not see another Cup parade in the Burgh unless Ray Shero acquires a desperately needed scoring winger. I’m not talking about another Chris Kunitz, Ruslan Fedotenko or heaven forbid Alexie Ponikarovski. I’m talking about a player who is legitimate 30 goal scorer, whether he plays with Crosby or not.

It’s amazing to see what Crosby has done playing with Kunitz and Dupuis. Imagine what he could do if Dupuis were replaced by a legitimate sniper. Or perhaps Kunitz could drop down and give Malkin the power forward he’s been lacking since Ryan Malone took his talents to Tampa. I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that Geno’s inconsistency started about the time he lost any semblance of a scoring winger to play with.

It would help matters if Staal could reach the next level offensively. Unfortunately through his 5th season, Staal has yet to consistently demonstrate elite offensive ability. He’s too young to write off in this category, especially given his injury, but with each passing year I’m less convinced he will be more than a 20 goal, 50 point guy.

That’s not a criticism of Staal, a truly elite two way talent. He brings tremendous value as perhaps the most dominant third line center in the game. That’s not the same as suggesting the Pens can move forward expecting him to be their third offensive pillar. I still hope Staal and Malkin can forge some offensive chemistry together but there has been little evidence of that so far.

Which further enforces the desperate need for Shero to find that scoring winger.

I give Shero credit for the remarkable job he did rebuilding the Penguins defense this offseason. I initially questioned the need to sign both Michalek and Martin as an excessive use of cap space. Seeing how good the Pens can be with those two plus Orpik and Letang at their best has put those questions to rest. That said, and with all due respect to Bobby Orr, teams in today’s NHL do not win championships on the backs of their offensive defensemen.

The Penguins have one truly movable chip in Alex Goligoski and he will likely be part of any deal. We can debate how good Goligoski is or is not. I continue to see him Ryan Whitney part II but I recognize this is not a consensus opinion. What we can not debate is that Kris Letang has made Goligoski expendable and that Gogo is the one Penguin who could legitimately attract a top caliber forward without breaking up the team’s core. Of course another forward will have to be thrown in for roster and cap considerations.

It’s easy to look at the Penguins strong play in November and December and conclude that I’m panicking over three bad games. I assure you that is not the case. The goal of this Penguin team is the Stanley Cup, nothing less. Crosby and Malkin (at his best) can carry this team to a 110 point regular season and the second round of the playoffs but not all the way to the cup. Not with this supporting cast of forwards. For the Penguins that would be considered a staggering failure.

I’m comforted that Ray Shero knows this and is patiently waiting for the right opportunity to present itself. I’ve developed a tremendous amount of faith in his ability to recognize and address his team’s needs. With some general managers I would be concerned about over valuing Goligoski or putting too much credence in the Pens strong early season play. I truly believe Shero sees beyond that to the bigger picture.

Of course it will be easy to forget all this when Crosby returns. The team will start scoring and winning again leading to the easy conclusion that they are fine as long as he’s in the line-up. And they are, for 82 games and two rounds of the playoffs. What will they do if Babcock, Zetterberg and the Wings show up in the finals to clutch and grab Sid in to submission? What will they do if Sid slumps? What will they do if he gets hurt as Lemieux did in 1992?

Without another elite offensive player, they will lose.

Saying Goodbye to the Sarge

Every once in awhile in sports, a free agent defection or trade really gets to me. Even when I know it’s inevitable.

I was pretty sure Sergei Gonchar’s days in the Burgh were numbered when the Pens announced a contract extension for Kris Letang last spring. My belief strengthened each time Ray Shero commented about impasse between the two sides and I was all but certain after the Pens ill fated, but harmless acquisition of Dan Hamhuis last week. And yet with all that in mind, I still felt a tug in my heart this afternoon when I read that Sergei was officially a Senator.

I can’t really explain this but over the last five years, Gonchar has become one of my favorite Penguins of all time. There is a quiet, simple professionalism about how he does his job that I really admire. Excepting one truly out of character moment in Minnesota last year, I truly can not remember an on or off ice outburst from him, even after absorbing a grossly negligent cheap shot from the Great 8 that nearly knocked him out of the 2009 playoffs.

What I do remember is a remarkable two way defensemen who never got enough credit for what he did at either end of the ice. I remember a guy who was known for his offense but was every bit as critical for his defense. I remember how Pittsburgh, in a fit of hockey naiveté and impatience almost ran out of town during the waning dark days of Patrick and Edzo in 2005. There in lies another bit of gratitude we owe the world’s angriest French Canadian who saved Gonchar’ career in the Burgh by installing of all things…a system.

I said this before and I’ll say it again. No Gonchar, no cup. It’s that simple.

To be clear, I fully endorsed signing Letang, who at a very young age has become a terrific two way defenseman. Moreover, I don’t think the Pens directly prioritized Letang over Gonchar. I think Sergei dictated the situation. At 36 years of age, he was not going to tank a year of guaranteed money or give a home town discount; no matter how much he enjoys playing with Sid and Geno.

I devoted two separate blogs last year to the Gonchar dilemma. I suggested that it might be the most difficult decision Ray Shero has faced as general manager of the Pens. I’ll take it a step further and say the next few days could go a long way towards determining whether the Penguins continue to compete for Stanley Cups during this four year window.

And I stand by this comment that I’ve written in multiple blog entries. Over the last four years, Sergei Gonchar was the most underrated player in the national hockey league.

The Pens were quite literally a different team without Gonchar in the line-up. Their overall record, goals for, goals against, and power play percentage were remarkably better with Gonchar in the line-up. We’re not talking about small margins here either, the numbers were astounding. The Pens were basically a 500 team without Gonchar and a Stanley Cup champion and two time finalist with him.

None of which erases the fact that Gonchar is 36 years old and showing initial signs of decline in his game. He’s had significant injury issues the last two years and his performance against Montreal in the playoffs was, to say the least, underwhelming (which leaves him in good company with about 18 other players). Gonchar could have a fabulous season this year in Ottawa but if he starts to decline the following year it’s a problem. The Senators either have enough cap space or are desperate enough to take that risk. The Penguins do not and are not.

Offensive defensemen tend to fade when they get above 35. Niklas Lidstrom is a freak of nature but most others simply can not maintain their game that long. Look no further than Scott Neidermyer who retired this year at 36 (robbing the NHL of perhaps its single greatest playoff beard). I can argue with conviction that Gonchar is critical to the Pens success and they will struggle to replace him. Alas the Gonchar they need may not exist anymore. Time waits for nobody in professional sports.

So I will concede that from a logical, intelligent, numbers driven position, the Penguins probably made the right move. Emphasis on probably. Still, I can’t help but think that a little bit of their heart and sole, not too mention a good bit of their transition game just skated north of the boarder.

Give Ray Shero credit for not getting left at the alter. He made an aggressive move first with Hamhuis and then to sign Zbynek Michalek. Even as I'm set to publish this, rumors are floating around about the Pens signing Paul Martin. Martin is a solid player and I’ll be writing a full blog on Michalek just as soon as Filoni tells me who he is. That being said, neither is likely to replace Gonchar’s offense.

That task will fall to Letang and/or Alex Whitneygoski. I continue to marvel at Letang’s offensive potential but I also question whether he will ever fully realize it. It’s not a crime if he continues to improve defensively but never becomes a Gonchar style power play QB, but the potential is clearly there. For better or for worse, the same is true for Gogo but as you may have guessed, he is already giving me intensely painful Ryan Whitney flashbacks. We need to see some significant improvement to buy off on him in Gonchar’s role.

That being said, it’s time for both players to sit at the grown-ups table. Gonchar’s presence in the line-up allowed each to dip their feet in the pool without diving in. Letang could get away with being a second point man and Goligoski could get away with turning the puck over 20 feet in front of MAF. Those days are now over. If the Pens want to get reacquainted with Lord Stanley’s Cup in the near future, one or both has to take a major step forward in their development. It should surprise nobody that my money is on Letang, or neither, over Gogo.

Taking the realities of the salary cap world out of the equation, the one and only good thing about losing Gonchar is that it's forcing the Pens to reshape their roster a bit. You do not overhaul a team that’s 12 months removed from back to back Stanley Cup finals but you also can’t stand pat forever. The defense clearly needed a rebuild after last year's mediocre performance and Shero seems fully intent on providing it. Good for him. As we learned in 1992, even championship teams have to keep evolving.

Alas, that's a discussion for another day.

For now, let's just take time to give the Sarge his due for five brilliant season's in a Penguin uniform. The Gonchar signing truly is the best move Craig Patrick made during his ten year, Penguin sponsored, on the job retirement (unless you count not tripping Sidney Crosby on the podium at the 2005 draft). For my money, his name belongs in the pantheon of Penguin greats, albeit one step below the legends (Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, Malkin, Barrasso, etc).

Gonchar was this generation’s Larry Murphy. A guy who did so many things right on an off the ice and rarely got the credit he deserved. He was every bit as critical to this team’s success as Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, and Staal, maybe more so in some cases. I truly hope Penguin fans understand and respect that and give Gonchar a standing ovation when he makes his first trip to new energy barn. I beg of my fellow Penguin supporters, no Hossa treatment for the Sarge.

So for now, let’s take time out to say thanks to the Sarge. Thanks for being the one Penguin defenseman who could break a forecheck in the 2007 playoffs. Thanks for being Geno’s translator and NHL mentor. Thanks for logging 25 minutes a night, often against the other team’s top forwards, and yet always taking second fiddle to 87 and 71. Thanks for playing through injury in both the 2008 and 2009 playoffs including Ovie’s cheap shot. Thanks for staying calm and delivering key power play goals when we needed them.

To paraphrase the immortal Don Corleone, we wish you the best of luck in Ottawa Gonch, so long as your interests do not conflict with ours. The Penguins must now start the difficult task of replacing you in the line-up. The rest of us can focus on learning how to pronounce Zbynek.