Sidney Crosby’s Much Needed Wake Up Call

Sidney Crosby very well MIGHT be injured.

He might just as well not be.

Crosby might just be in a slump; though admittedly the worst of his professional career.  That slump, combined with the often overwhelming defensive attention he receives (with questionable legality), might simply be wearing him down mentally.

It can happen to the best of players.  I saw it first hand with Jonathan Toews last year.  He was basically a non-factor offensively for the first 9 games of the playoffs.  Things got so bad that he took three penalties, mostly undisciplined and unnecessary, in game 4 in Detroit.  He did this in what appeared to be a near must win game for the Hawks.  That’s hardly what you would expect from one of the great leaders in hockey.

Things got so bad that Brent Seabrook had to talk to Toews on the ice and blast him behind the scenes to wake him up.  Such news was shocking in Chicago where Captain Serious is revered for his devotion to his craft.  Guess what, he’s also human.

As is Sidney Crosby; no matter how much Pierre McGuire and the folks at TSN believe otherwise.

I’ve been watching sports for nearly 35 years and I’ve rarely seen anything to compete with the over-the-top Crosby love fest that regularly emanates from the North American (primarily Canadian) media.  I’m a die-hard Penguin fan and it nearly sickens me.  It’s a big driver of the anti-Crosby sentiment that exists in so many other cities, where fans are simply tired of the Crosby over-exposure.  It’s the same reason so many sports fans hate Notre Dame.

I thought it reached its apex in game 2 against Columbus when Pierre gave us 20 seconds on the creative genius of Sidney Crosby; after a routine pass set-up a 65 foot slap shot goal from Matt Niskanen.  Turns out I was wrong.  The Crosby love fest hit its apex when TSN started running Zapruder film on Crosby and doing forensic analysis of his ground speed to try and prove an injury.  I read an article linked to Puck Daddy where the writer was literally analyzing shift by shift video of Crosby late in the season to discover where an injury MIGHT have occurred.

In the meantime, the most under-appreciated superstar on the planet actually was injured and it was never mentioned. 

Does anybody even remember that Evgeni Malkin broke his foot with three weeks left in the regular season?  Did anybody even bother to ask if Malkin was 100% healthy when the playoffs started?  Is it possible, just possible, that Malkin’s early struggles were a combination of rust from a three week layoff and perhaps playing at less than 100%?

Not that I would expect it to be mentioned.  I mean Malkin had a hat trick against Columbus and Pierre barely mentioned his name on any of the goals.  Instead he credited Crosby on Malkin’s first goal and Niskanen on his second.  Heaven forbid anybody outside of Pittsburgh or Magnitogorsk acknowledges anything positive about 71.

Look, it’s very possible Crosby is hurt.  I personally think he’s looked off since the Olympics.  That includes the actual games by the way as Crosby was relatively mediocre by his standards in Sochi.  If Crosby was injured at any time between Slovenia and Columbus however, the Penguins had ample opportunity to rest him given their huge division lead.  That they chose to do so only in spots (two individual games), calls that in to question in my mind.

Moreover, if he was hurt, did Crosby miraculously get healthy last night.  Because let’s be honest, in spite of a zero in the box score, that was far and away his most inspired performance in months. 

None of us have access to the Penguin locker room.  So we rely on the Pittsburgh media to give us that behind the scenes view.  Last week Joe Starkey wrote in the Tribune Review that Crosby looked joyless most of the second half.  He compared his demeanor on a daily basis to one who just had a root canal.  That’s hardly an encouraging portrayal of the face of the franchise. 

We also know that veteran leaders such as Orpik, Scuderi, and Adams, were notably boisterous down the stretch about the lack or passion or urgency coming from the squad.  I cannot help but wonder if some of that was pointed directly at 87.  Sid has many strengths as a player but accepting criticism in his own house has never been one of them.  Just ask Marc Recchi.

It was all disconcerting stuff to be sure; worrisome enough that I questioned whether Dan Bylsma had lost the locker room and should be fired with two weeks left in the season.  That’s a desperation solution at face value; being proposed by someone who generally detests the tiresome, catch-all, fire the coach mentality that pervades professional sports.

Let’s be honest, the Pens are not a Stanley Cup favorite this year.  They might be no better than the 6^th best team still playing (though fortunate to be matched against likely the 8^th best).  That said, whatever opportunity they have to make a deep run or to miraculously lift Lord Stanley’s cup has a stated prerequisite; Crosby must return to the top of his game.

On Sunday night, he showed definitive signs of that happening for the first time this post season. 

Not surprisingly, the Pens followed his lead.  Hockey has this odd follow the captain culture that does not seem to exist in any other sport.  Crosby’s inspired effort seemed to drive his entire team.  The Penguins played their most complete game of the playoffs.  It was not just the performance but the intensity level, physicality, and attention to detail for 60 minutes.  It was exactly the kind of effort needed to turn this club in the right direction.

I would add this, it was not quite the anomaly that some are suggesting.  The Pens were similarly dominant in game 5 against Columbus when they fired 51 shots in regulation and controlled play start to finish.  In my opinion they’ve played two of their most complete playoff games since the 09 cup run in their last four outings.  Throw in a dominant effort for the first 50 minutes of game 6 (partially mitigated by an ugly last 10), and this Penguin team appears to be trending the right direction.

There are many reasons for this, with health being at the top of the list.  Last night was arguably the first time this season the Pens had their true top 12 forwards in the line-up.  The simple fact that Tanner Glass was a healthy scratch was a key positive.  There was also a season best performance from the team’s blue liners and another strong effort from Marc-Andre Fleury.  Let’s face it; we were all justifiably concerned about Fleury after his game 4 meltdown.  Instead he’s lifted his game to something approximating his 08 and 09 post season levels.

In the short-term, these were critical drivers of last night’s victory.  In the long-term, the Crosby revival may be remembered as the story of the night.  Toews recovered his game last year and lead Chicago to a championship.  Here’s hoping Crosby follows suit.   

Penguin Playoff Hopes Ride on Fleury’s Redemption

Last May, about the time the Penguins’ season was going up in flames in Boston, I was absolutely convinced that Marc-Andre Fleury was finished in the Burgh.

It was not just about a goaltender having a bad playoff series or his team failing to meet justifiably lofty goals.  Both of those results could be explained in a vacuum.  This was about a goaltender enduring his second consecutive miserable first round performance for a franchise with Stanley Cup or bust expectations.  The fact that Tomas Vokoun rescued the Pens, at least long enough for his teammates to flat line against Boston only exacerbated the issue.

There is no sugar coating the obvious, Fleury was abysmal, just as he was a year earlier against Philly.  Keep in mind this evaluation is coming from a well-known Fleury defender.  His critics were far less accommodating of his performance.

There were some mildly passable excuses for MAF’s performance against the Goons in 2012.  Dan Bylsma clearly and obviously overplayed him that season (nothing like 4 starts in 6 nights in December) and the Pens had a catastrophic, team wide defensive meltdown in that series.  I still say the team collapsed in front of Fleury before he imploded, for whatever that is worth.

There was however no justification for last year's performance against the Islanders.  Fleury was well rested and the team in front of him was at least competent defensively.  He was coming off a brilliant regular season and even opened the playoffs with a shutout.  And then after just one shaky goal early in game 2 everything came unglued.  What followed was a mortifying parade of leaky goals, several of which he inexplicably kicked in to his own net.

By the end of game four, Bylsma had no choice but to switch goaltenders.  And when Fleury was given a second chance of sorts against Boston, he looked completely lost.  Given that precipitous fall, the overriding cup or bust pressure on the Pens, and the Fleury’s excessive salary cap figure I was almost positive he would be tending goal in Edmonton or Miami this season. 

Amazingly that did not happen. 

I’m not sure if it was true faith or the lack of a readily available alternative but the Pens stuck with Fleury.  And they were rewarded with what was, in my opinion, his second best season in the Burgh (behind only the 2010-11 year).  At face value he was brilliant, often carrying a team that was decimated by injuries and lacking any semblance of 3^rd and 4^th line depth.  A good argument could be made for him sharing the team MVP award with Sidney Crosby.  His brilliance this season stoodon its own, without consideration of the extenuating circumstances.

It was even more brilliant when you consider where he was a year ago and the pressure he was under this season as a result.  I still recall national media sites running stories and pasting up video of Fleury allowing a soft goal…IN A TRAINING CAMP SCRIMAGE.

Fleury often gets criticized for being mentally soft.  Admittedly that assessment is hard to dispute when he follows two straight brilliant regular seasons with apocalyptic post season meltdowns.  When you consider how low he was at the end of last season, it’s nothing short of miraculous that he put it back together.  Many athletes could not recover from such a fall, as least now without a change of scenery.  Fleury did so, right under the spotlight of his critics. 

It takes incredible strength of character to pull that off.  Fleury should be commended for how much of that he showed this season.

Alas the harsh reality is that as of this morning, none of it matters. 

It’s a fact of hockey life that goaltenders are always under pressure in the playoffs.  The pressure on Fleury however is astronomical.  He has literally reached a crossroads in his career; one where any meaningful evaluation of his performance beings in mid-April.  There is virtually nothing he can do in the regular season to dissuade his critics; most of whom accept that strong regular season play from him is a given.  It’s literally ALL about the post season for Marc-Andre Fleury.  

I’ve been watching sports for nearly 35 years and I honestly cannot remember another athlete who was under this type of post season pressure.  Fleury’s not alone under the microscope of course; at the very minimum he’s got a time share with Dan Bylsma, but the spotlight shines brightest on the Penguin net-minder.  I would be shocked if any reputable playoff preview does not lament the potential for a Fleury meltdown to take down the Pens.

Further compounding the issue is that this year’s Penguin team has some fairly obvious red flags.  Excepting Brandon Sutter, the 3^rd and 4^th lines are substandard for a championship contender.  They’ve struggled to find a winger to replace Pascal Dupuis.  And the team was far too dependent on special teams’ play and shootout victories for its regular season success.  For the first time since 87 and 71 missed the playoffs in 2011, the Penguins are justifiably not a Stanley Cup favorite.

For a team with such a make-up to have a deep run, or dare I suggest live up to the Stanley Cup aspirations of its fan base, Fleury must be nothing short of brilliant from start to finish.  I’m talking Tim Thomas 2011 or Jonathan Quick 2012 style brilliant.  Or better yet, Fleury 2008 brilliant.

Is the point clear yet?

To ratchet up the pressure a tad higher, Fleury is likely playing for his future in the Burgh.  The team is already excessively top heavy against the salary cap; a situation which further deteriorates next year when new contracts for Letang and Malkin kick in.  There is simply no room for a $5 Million per year goaltender if he cannot raise his game when it matters most.  And unlike last year, there is no safety net behind him.  It seems highly unlikely the Pens will turn to Vokoun (after a season of inactivity) or Jeff Zatkoff should MAF flounder again.  Simply put, the Penguins will sink or swim with #29.

For what it’s worth, I genuinely hope Fleury steps-up.  This goes beyond being a Penguin fan and understanding that Fleury’s ‘A’ game is a prerequisite for post season success.  The Flower by all accounts is one of the truly good guys in professional sports.  He seems to genuinely love playing the game.  And he’s had too much success in his career to be branded solely on his recent post season failures.  As a reminder, that success includes 289 regular season victories, two trips to the Stanley Cup finals, and one very memorable championship. He’s absolutely capable of being great when it matters most.

Nothing would make me happier than to see Fleury carry the Pens this post season. It would be a fabulous and deserved redemption story; one that seemed incomprehensible 10 months ago.  If that does not happen my prediction from last May likely comes to pass; a year later than expected.

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY PENGUIN…BLESSED BE THE PENGUIN, FOR IT IS GOOD.

Dan Bylsma's Last Shot

The Stanley Cup finals started last night with a truly sensational game between Chicago and Boston.  Recency bias and hyperbole make for a bad combination so I’ll resist the urge quantify its greatness.  Suffice to say it was the kind of game that drives many of us to believe that there is nothing better in sports than post season hockey.  For me it had everything; everything except the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That is ironic because yesterday marked the 4 year anniversary of arguably the greatest game in Penguins’ history.  Their gut wrenching game 7 victory in Detroit was perhaps the seminal moment for a franchise that has enjoyed far greater success than it’s credited.

In the aftermath of their elusive third championship the club’s future potential seemed boundless.  A once in a generation assemblage of young stars had matured to full potential, winning a Stanley Cup well before their time.  The general manager was locking in those stars on manageable long-term contracts.  And for the first time in their history, they seemed to have the perfect head coach to steer the ship.  There was every reason to believe that cup celebrations would be the norm for this group.

And yet as the finals kicked off last night the only Penguin discussion we were contemplating was Ray Shero’s emphatic endorsement of Dan Byslma as his coach for next season.  It’s a worthwhile debate, especially since I considered Disco Dan’s continued employment an even money proposition at best when I awoke on Wednesday.

Taken in a vacuum, one can just as easily conclude that Bylsma is or is not responsible for the Pens crash and burn performance against Boston.  His supporters state that he cannot be blamed for the sudden and complete disappearance of the team’s offensive stars.  His detractors state that he must be held accountable for the club’s lackluster play and lack of composure in the first two games of the series; and for getting swept with perhaps the most talented roster in the NHL.  Both arguments are accurate to a point.

I made it clear on Monday that my biggest issue with Bylsma was consistent lack of discipline shown by his team over the entire playoff run.  It manifested last year against Philly. And it manifested on several occasions before the conference finals; most notably with the inexcusable short-handed goal the Pens allowed to Ottawa in the waning seconds of game 3.  But it was never more brutally obvious than in the first two games against the Bruins. 

The Penguins ardently refused to make the smart simple plays necessary to succeed this time of year.  As noted in Monday’s blog, I’ve watched Chicago’s defensemen repeatedly defuse pressure in their own zone with simple bank passes of the boards.  In contrast the Penguins have Kris Letang, the Brett Favre of NHL defensemen, constantly trying to stickhandle through pressure or worse yet, throw blind backhand passes up the middle of the ice.   

At any given moment, the players are responsible for not executing properly.  When the same issue continues unabated for two years it falls primarily on the coach.

Given that, Bylsma should not be evaluated in the vacuum of one series; rather by his overall body of work.  And that is an eminently complex affair, as Bylsma’s track record is emminently complex. 

If it were simply the juxtaposition of regular season success against playoff disappointment it would be an easy call.  It’s not.  Not when the same coach who oversaw four consecutive post season flame outs also lead one of the great championship runs in NHL history.  Not when this year’s loss, as disappointing as it was, occurred in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This situation best parallels Bill Cowher and the Steelers, circa January 2005.  The franchise was at a crossroads after Cowher’s 15-1 team was blown out of Heinz Field by New England in the AFC Championship game.  It marked the 4^th time in 14 years that Cowher’s team lost an AFC title game at home.  And it continued a confounding trend of regular season dominance followed by playoff collapse.  At that time there was fairly compelling, albeit circumstantial evidence that Cowher simply could not lead the Steelers to a championship.

The Steelers stuck it out with Cowher in 2005 and he ultimately delivered.  In so doing they established their franchise as a model of organizational stability.   That is in stark contrast to the Penguins who for most of their history have treated coaches as interchangeable parts.

So I salute the Penguins for once embracing stability over chaos.  I salute them for finally accepting the possibility that the players should be held accountable as much if not more so than the coach.  This is very much a new concept at the New Energy Barn and would seem to indicate a maturation of the organization.  It’s also a testament to the coaching street cred Bylsma earned though winning that championship in 2009.         

I do wonder however if the Penguins are standing not so much behind Bylsma as they are Sidney Crosby (and to a lesser degree Evgeni Malkin).  This is an organization with a track record of terrible coaching decisions made solely to appease their superstars.  How else do you justify firing Scotty Bowman for Eddie Johnston or in any way, shape, or form hiring Ivan Hlinka?  Given that history, and Mario Lemieux’s current ownership percentage, it’s not beyond consideration that Bylsma’s greatest coaching asset is that he keeps Sid the Kid happy.

I’m not saying definitely that is the case, but I cannot rule it out, especially when Bylsma’s extension precedes Malkin’s by just 24 hours.  We learned from the Johnston and Hlinka debacles that hiring coaches solely to placate superstars is a recipe for post season disappointment.  It’s even greater a concern when you factor in that Crosby, as much as anybody in the organization need to step up his post season performance going forward.  That is not going to happen if the head coach is in his pocket.

Regardless, the decision is made and Bylsma is staying, at least for one more year.  I am neither endorsing nor disputing it for all the reasons mentioned above.  I’m not yet convinced that Bylsma is the problem or the solution to this team’s ills.  That said, results speak for themselves and Bylsma’s window is clearly inching towards closure.

I will say this.  The Penguins cannot trot out the same coach, same system, and same players that have endured four consecutive playoff failures.  Most coaches would not survive such a run; especially when the last two were catastrophic in nature.  The team has refused to embrace the most critical components of playoff hockey success in spite of giving continual lip service to doing just that.  This means either that Bylsma is failing to deliver the message or the players are failing to receive it.  By hitching his wagon to the head coach, Shero is essentially stating the latter.

This means Shero absolutely must make personnel changes in the offseason.  He must deploy a better and more committed group of defensive players around 87 and 71.  He must find players who will embrace the need for structured and disciplined hockey, even when playing with superior offensive talent.  And he probably needs to accept that it is financially untenable to keep Letang or Marc-Andre Fleury on the roster at this point.

Even assuming such changes, Bylsma still needs to get the message through to his star players.  The Blackhawks have proved throughout the playoffs that a team with high end talent can be successful in the post season by playing the right way.  Doing it against Boston last night further crystalized the point.  Bylsma has been given one last shot to get that message across.  If he fails, it will likely be his last.

Penguins Post Mortem, Toughness and Discipline Needed

I read an absolutely stunning statistics in Dejan Kovacevic’s column in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review last Friday.  He pointed out that through the first three games of the series against Boston; a span including nearly 11 full periods of hockey, the Penguins generated THREE rebound shots on Tuukka Rask. 

That’s not a misprint...THREE rebound shots.  And one of those came off the stick of noted sniper Craig Adams.

I sensed that this was the case just watching the first three games so I focused in on it in game 4.  Other than the Penguins' desperation flurry at the end of the game, I do not recall a single rebound shot the entire game.

There will be an infinite amount of post mortem analysis this summer on the Penguins latest post season melt down.  Multiple theories will be posited, multiple scapegoats served up.  All will have some measure of validity but to my way of thinking, you need not look beyond that mind numbing rebound statistic as the starting point. 

From a micro standpoint it tells you that the Penguins had basically zero net front presence in this series and that the Boston defense, specifically Zdeno Chara dominated the Pittsburgh forwards.  I think that’s a pretty fair assessment when you consider the Penguins scored just 2 goals the series, after potting 47 in the first two rounds. 

It’s also a good explanation for why Rask appears to have suddenly morphed in to the greatest goaltender in NHL history.  Some will suggest the Pens once again got beat again by a hot goaltender, a theory I categorically dismiss.  Pretty much any top line NHL goalie is going to look that way when they are not dealing with screens, deflections and second chances.  Quite simply, the Penguins made Rask’s job far too easy.

From a macro standpoint, it tells you the biggest problem the Pittsburgh Penguins have as a team.  Namely, they are not tough enough.

Let me be clear on this, every member of that team is tougher than 99.9% of society at large.  I’m not questioning their heart or manhood.  Most people would not survive one day of what these warriors go through in the Stanley Cup playoffs. 

That does not change the fact that relative to the other ELITE teams in the NHL, the Penguins are simply not tough enough.  They play too much of a finesse game, in a league that no longer tolerates finesse.  We can argue until the end of time whether that’s the makes sense; I personally find it astounding how hard the NHL works to prevent its stars from being stars.  Regardless, we have to deal in reality.

Toughness has always been a prerequisite for post season success.  With the possible exception of Carolina in 2006, speedy perimeter skill teams do not win Stanley Cups.  As talented as the 2008-09 Penguins were what always stands out in my mind is how hard they battled in the finals against Detroit, especially in the last two games.

But in today’s NHL, toughness it’s more important than ever.  Even with all the changes introduced to maintain speed and flow in the game, the teams that succeed in the post season are the toughest to play against.  Defensive systems are more advanced than ever and talent and strategy is simply not enough to beat them.  You have to flat out work or better yet, out battle teams to beat them.

I simply did not see that compete level from the Penguins in this series, even in games 3 and 4.

Such commitment is absolutely possible from a high end skill hockey team.  It’s why the Chicago Blackhawks are in the Stanley Cup finals in spite of playing arguably the NHL’s toughest defensive team in the 3^rd round.  The LA Kings makes you work for every inch of open ice.  You cannot beat a team like that without talent but that talent must be willing to sell out 100% every night to do so.  Chicago matched LA’s work ethic, physicality and defensive presence throughout the series.  Ultimately their high end talent came to the forefront and made the difference in games 4 and 5.

The Penguins superior offensive talent makes them nearly invincible in the regular season; because most teams on most nights do not raise their work ethic to the same level they do in April and May.  They looked just as invincible in the first two rounds thanks to fortuitous match-ups with teams that gave their super skilled players an abundance of open ice to work with.  The problem was that when Boston forced them to earn their ice, they came up woefully short.

It took the Pens two embarrassing home losses before they realized how tough they would have to play in the conference finals.  And even when they figured in out in game three, they still demonstrated an alarming lack of net front presence and/or ability to win battles.  I’ve heard a lot of talk about Jarome Iginla being used improperly by Dan Bylsma.  What I have not heard enough of is how many times Iginla was knocked off the puck and/or lost a one on one battle in the offensive zone.

I also have not heard nearly enough about the frequent net front fly byes from Neal, Kunitz, and Morrow that were far too often the norm in this series.  For all the criticism of Evgeni Malkin, he fired 21 shots in 4 games and created numerous grade A scoring opportunities.  How many times did a Pittsburgh player skate right past a rebound Malkin created?  The Penguins simply had zero net front presence to finish it off. 

To that end, I put as much if not more blame on the Penguins power forwards and grinders than I do on the Crosby, Letang, and Malkin.  If you think I’m off base on this, consider that the Blackhawks are going to the Stanley Cup finals even though Jonathan Toews has just one goal in the post season.  Consider how critical Max Talbot, Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy, and even Miro Satan were to the Pens cup run in 2009.

Physicality was not the only issue; lack of discipline was every bit the concern.  Going back to the Islanders’ series I was bothered by the mind boggling number of defensive zone turnovers by the Penguins, especially Kris Letang.  I heard the Pens talk over and over about making smarter simpler plays.  And yet there was Letang in game 2, right after a critical penalty kill, making a horrendous and amateurish turnover that lead to a game changing goal.  The play was awful enough at face value; even worse when you consider the payoff for success was a potential Brooks Orpik breakaway.

That kind of mental error, which we saw over and over again, is inexcusable at this level.  I blame the players for failure to execute but also the coaching staff for not getting the message through.  Again, I concentrated on how the Blackhawks defense played game 5 against Los Angeles.  The Chicago backline is every bit as skilled as the Penguins and yet time after time after time they made smart simple clearing plays off the boards.  Credit the players but also credit Coach Joel Quenneville for getting the message through on how the team had to play.

If Bylsma is unemployed before next season, the lack of discipline repeatedly demonstrated by his players will be the primary reason.  What Ray Shero has to decide is did Bylsma fail to get the message across or does he have players who are unwilling to accept it?  That decision will determine whether Bylsma returns and/or Kris Letang gets the monster contract extension required to keep him in the Burgh.

Either way, it will make for a long and difficult offseason.  I refuse to call a final four appearance a complete failure but it’s unquestionably a disappointment.  As a result, the franchise is at a critical cross road.  Their problems are eminently fixable.  The question is how…and with whom.

The End of the Line for Marc-Andre Fleury

Over the years I’ve been a passionate supporter, and defender of Marc-Andre Fleury.

That has not always been easy given the legion of Fleury critics amongst both Penguin fans and the local and national media.  There were many who chose to blame Fleury for every Penguin ill while downplaying or even ignoring his contributions to their success.  I never understood it; especially when you combined Fleury’s track record of victories with his eminently likeable personality.

So let me start off by acknowledging what should be but is not assumed to be obvious; Marc-Andre Fleury was a critical component to the Penguins success over the past seven years.  More to the point, he was a critical component of back-to-back Stanley Cup finals runs and the franchise’s elusive 3^rd championship in 2009.  His game 7 saves on future hall of famers Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Lidstrom are rightfully considered the stuff of legend.

He was part of the foundation; a core superstar.  There was every reason to believe he would mind the nets in the Burgh for another decade.  And as we sit here today; I see it as unlikely he will be a Penguin next month.

Simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury is playing himself right out of Pittsburgh.

Another concession to the obvious; goaltending is fairly low on the list of reasons the Penguins were man handled by Boston in game 2.  Before we get to Fleury or Tomas Vokoun, a good hard look needs to be taken at Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and just about every other front line player on the roster.  The head coach and general manager are hardly above scrutiny either.

That does not change the fact that the Marc-Andre Fleury we once knew seems long gone, at least when the season becomes best 4 out of 7.  What remains is a goaltender with zero post season confidence, one that seems incapable of making even the most basic saves on a consistent basis.  It’s a stunning and perhaps unprecedented fall for an elite Pittsburgh athlete in my lifetime.

Fleury’s issues are not about physical ability and I think we all know it.  There are few goaltenders in hockey as athletically gifted as MAF; a point he continually demonstrates with superior regular season play.  Fleury’s critics like to point out the overall talent on the Penguins or his comparatively pedestrian statistics (excluding wins of course).  In so doing, they conveinently overlook the Penguins often lackadaisical approach to defense.  Does anybody truly believe that Brian Elliott would post a 1.95 goals against average playing for this team?

No, Fleury’s current post season issues are unequivocally between the ears.  His confidence seems to come undone after a bad goal or two and once it does his entire game breaks down. I’m not talking about struggling to control rebounds or giving up the occasional soft goal.  I’m talking about a goaltender that seems to lose even the most basic constructs of his position in the post season.  When you juxtapose that against his regular season play and early career playoff success, it’s impossible to come to any other conclusion.

The irony is that this is the exact criticism Fleury faced during the early part of his career; even though it was totally unfounded by the results on the ice.  I wrote an impassioned defense of Fleury after he lead the Penguins to the 2009 Cup pointing out that but for one bit of bad luck at the World Junior Championships, there was nothing in his actual resume that substantiated his reputation as a big game flake.  Fleury’s performance from 2006-07 through that 7^th game in Detroit was exemplary; especially given the team’s aforementioned aversion to strong defensive hockey.

You could make a convincing argument that Fleury’s post season play was trending downward in 2010 and 2011; although I maintain he played better in the hopeless Tampa series than he gets credit for.  In both the Montreal and Tampa series there was at least a debatable premise regarding Fleury’s level of culpability.  You could argue accurately that he was not the reason the Pens lost either series; but just as accurately that he did not consistently raise his level to be the difference maker.   I would distill it down to this; he was part of the problem in those losses but by no means the root of it.  

The issue the last two years is that the quality of his post season work is no longer debatable.  He’s gone from trending downward to a complete train wreck.  His play has become indefensible; in spite of meager efforts from his coach and teammates to do just that.  Keep in mind this critique is coming from an unabashed Fleury fan; one who was often branded an apologist in my persistent battles with his critics.

To be fair, the Penguins played HISTORICALLY bad defense in front of Fleury in last year’s loss to Philly.  They broke down first and he follow suit with a meltdown of his own.  This year he collapsed of his own volition, even if the team’s defensive work against the Islanders was less than inspired.  Vokoun’s strong performance in relief made that abundantly clear. 

My opinions about Vokoun’s abilities are also a matter of public record on this blog.  I’ve never thought him better than a second tier starter, if that.  Fleury at his best is the superior goaltender.  So it should not be taken lightly when I state that for better or for worse, Vokoun should be the only option the Penguins consider in goal the remainder of the post season, however long that should be. 

That is exactly how I expect this to play out. 

Dan Bylsma is smart enough not to bury a popular and accomplished veteran in the media and thus tends to downplays Fleury’s struggles at every turn.  In reality, I believe he’s lost all confidence in MAF, an issue no doubt compounded by concerns about his own jobs security.  No matter Bylsma’s public disposition on the topic or the journalistic meanderings of Puck Daddy and others, I cannot fathom that Fleury will start another game; barring injury to Vokoun.  The hope is that the team rediscovers its form and that Vokoun for lack of a better term can “Osgood” them to a championship.

I truly believe that last night was Fleury’s last shot.   In a game where the situation was already bleak he was given one last opportunity to resuscitate his game. The hope was that Fleury would rediscover his 2008/2009 post season form; or for that matter his 2013 regular season form, either of which is a better option than Vokoun.  Instead Fleury emphatically reaffirmed Bylsma’s decision to take away his net with another very shaky effort.

In the bigger picture, Fleury’s time in the Burgh is likely at its end.  The team as currently constructed is in the heart of their championship window.  They cannot support a goaltender who in back-to back years has demonstrated a profound inability to perform in the post season; let alone one who takes $5 Million annually off their salary cap.  The issue is magnified against the specter of another disappointing post season finish and the team’s imposing future contact obligations.  Kudos to Ray Shero for having the foresight to hedge his bets this season with Vokoun but realistically, he’s not the long-term answer either.

Fleury will land on his skates; he’s too talented not too.  And a new, lower pressure environment might be exactly what he needs to rebuild his fragile confidence.   I hope it happens for him, I just do not see it happening in the Burgh.

The First Soft Steps on the Path to “DOOM”

Regular readers of this blog (when it was a more regular publication) and good friends of mine are well aware of the "DOOM" scenario as often prophesized by my wife Emily.

“DOOM” as defined by Emily involves a Stanley Cup Finals match-up between our two favorite hockey teams; the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Chicago Blackhawks.  The fact that said match-up no longer threatens to impede our pending nuptials, as it would have three years ago is irrelevant.  Simply put, “DOOM” is a bad thing.  To put it in proper perspective, one would likely need to have been involved in our wedding planning and/or spent Super Bowl week with the Harbaugh parents.

When we first started discussing (or more likely dreading) the concept three years ago it was distasteful. Now, it’s FAR worse.  My wife has always been a Hawks fan first but three years ago her loyalties were more closely divided.  Today she is as rabid a Hawks fans as you will find anywhere. She LIKES the Pens…she LOVES the Hawks.

I bleed black and gold and that will never change.  Still, my Hawks fandom has grown as well, sufficient even to attend an away game by myself in San Jose last February.  I do not doubt my wife’s influence on that development (which is unfortunate because I would NEVER try to influence her sports loyalties) but there is more to the story. 

I have lived in Chicago nearly 18 years.  I live one mile from the United Center.  I love hockey.  And five years ago the Hawks performed the most startling sports metamorphosis ever seen.  They changed almost instantaneously from one of the worst organizations in North American sports to one of the best.  On top of which, they dispatched the Orange and Black Goon Squad in the Stanley Cup finals, thus allowing me to remain in existential harmony with the hockey universe.  It’s a debt of gratitude I can never truly repay.

For most of the hockey world, a Pens/Hawks match-up for the sport’s most cherished prize would be a dream.  They are the league’s two best teams bar none and arguably the most exciting as well. With all due respect to Barry Trotz, it is highly unlikely that either Dan Bylsma or Joel Quenneville with unveil the neutral zone trap if that series comes to pass.

For Emily and me, it’s an unmitigated nightmare. 

The two clubs have met only four times since we became “an item”, and the atmosphere around us could be charitably described as “uncomfortable” each time.  Mind you that is with nothing but organizational pride at stake in any of those games.  One cannot help but think that our 1,295 square feet of living space will seem a bit congested if fate and/or Crosby and Toews were to deliver this match-up.  And keep in mind I have not even addressed the Marian Hossa issue.

So the question becomes, how close are we to “DOOM”?  Is it a forgone conclusion that these two teams will meet in the Stanley Cup finals?  NHL history after all is replete with unfathomable post season upsets.  Just last season an 8^th seed Los Angeles team that barely qualified for the post season caught fire and rampaged to a championship.  Rarely do the NHL’s two best regular season teams meet in the finals.

Just as rarely however does the league produce one team, let alone two with a 75% regular season winning percentage. If you toss out shootouts, given the obvious random element involved, the Penguins and Blackhawks COMBINED to lose only 19 of 96 hockey games this season.  The Blackhawks opened the season with a 24 game point streak; the Penguins followed with a 15 game winning streak.  So yes, there is cause for mild concern (if not full on panic).

And yet in the true spirit of being conflicted sports fans, we fear both the prospect of “DOOM” and the absence of “DOOM”.  We can interchangeably dread the potential for this match-up and the equally nerve wracking idea of another early exit for either or both.  It’s the great conundrum of our dual hockey existence.

The merciless nature of the NHL is this; the playoffs truly are a second season, separate and distinct from the first.  Post season failure will eradicate virtually any level of regular season success.  Penguin fans know this well; it took only two dreadful weeks last April to erase six months of inspired hockey from our memories.

There were palatable if not comforting explanations for the Penguins losses to Montreal and Tampa in 2010 and 2011.  Conversely the team is still washing off the stench of last year’s collapse against their most hated rival.  Their performance was completely inexcusable and put virtually EVERY player (short of #87) and coach on notice that another such meltdown could end their time in the Burgh. 

The Blackhawks needed two full seasons to recover from the salary cap armageddon that occurred after they skated the cup in 2010.  Even still, their loss to Phoenix last season was uninspired at best.  The team never looked truly right after the All Star Break and the worst kept secret in the league was the tension between Quenneville and Scotty Bowman’s kid.  I’m not sure exactly where management sides in this dispute but suffice to say, either or both could be unemployed if the Hawks are ousted before Memorial Day.

Which means simply that the Pens and Hawks are both at risk of being branded Washington Crapital style post season chokers if the drop out early again this year.  To that end, my honest belief is that both teams but especially the Penguins benefited from the short-season.  I can only imagine the build-up of angst over 82 games for a team with Stanley Cup or bust expectations and a 20 point lead in the standings.  Even with that, the collateral damage from another early exit could be significant. 

No other sport ascribes less importance to its regular season than the NHL.  For great teams and great players, immortality is earned in May and June.  Brett Favre and Peyton Manning fashioned impenetrable legacies in spite of numerous post season failures because NFL regular season success is considered a noteworthy achievement.  In the National Hockey League, it’s merely a footnote.

When you are as talented as the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Chicago Blackhawks, getting to the Stanley Cup tournament is taken as a given.  It’s what you do afterward that creates or maintains your legacy. 

The Pens and Hawks are championship caliber teams.  Both are deep and talented, exceptionally well coached and experienced under playoff pressure.  Both have a core of players with proven abilities to step up in the biggest of games.  Notwithstanding the wild-card of the shortened season, I cannot remember a year where two NHL teams appeared so obviously superior to the rest of the league. 

Even with that, “DOOM” is still a long ways away.  It remains incredibly difficult to win one NHL playoff series let alone three.  There are completely unpredictable variables such as injuries (see Crosby, Sidney) and hot goaltenders (see Halak, Jaroslav).  There are bad breaks, bad schedules, and bad match-ups.  Any number of things could happen between now and mid June to prevent this match-up.  When Emily and I view either team individually, such concerns are at the forefront of our collective thoughts. 

 
When we view the teams collectively, the “DOOM” scenario seems almost unavoidable.  As such Emily and I are beset by a truly unsettling paradox. If we get exactly what we want, we will get exactly what we do not want. It's the ultimate circular reference in our hockey lives.

As if to drive home this point, the NHL created an almost unfathomable scheduling coincidence whereby the Hawks and Pens play the same night in six of their seven first round games. I’m not a Gary Bettman hater by nature but even his most strident enemies cannot think him diabolical enough to have purposely crafted such a schedule.

For now, I will simply speak in the time honored language of coach-speak.  We will take each game and each series one at a time.  We will worry solely about the teams in front of us.  There is a lot of hockey to be played between now and mid June.  For better or for worse, anything can happen.

Free Ride is Over for Fleury

At his best, Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the top goaltenders in the National Hockey League.

And like most elite goaltenders, Fleury often suffers at the expense of unreasonable fan expectations.  Which is a politically correct way of saying he bears the brunt of the blame whenever the red light goes on, deserved or not.

That’s the life of an NHL goaltender; especially one who plays for a talented team that can be charitably described as “lapse” times defensively from time to time.  Tom Barrasso lived in comparable fashion during his best years in the Burgh, long before he became a local media pariah.  It's fair to say that life as a Penguin goaltender is far more challenging than it is for say, Brian Elliott in St’ Louis.

Perhaps it truly is a matter of expectations.  We have seen that Fleury at his best can be as good as any goaltender in the game.  So to whatever extent he’s not at that level it’s considered a letdown.  That may very well be the case but I struggle to believe that Henrik Lundqvist faces the same level of vitriol as Fleury after a bad performance.

More often than not I think Fleury is an easy scapegoat.  Most fans remember Michael Grabner’s shot going under Fleury’s arm; not the horrendous giveaway by Deryk Engelland that precipitated a 100 foot breakaway. 

So with that preamble in the bank, I will now contradict pretty much everything I’ve stated above.  As great as Fleury is and can be, as great as he was during back to back Stanley Cup finals’ runs, he is officially on notice.  He has to be better, especially in the post season.  And if he is not, he will not play.  The Penguins made that crystal clear by bringing in Tomas Vokoun as their second goaltender.

Ray Shero could have signed any number of back-ups during the offseason.  He could have brought in a reliable second guy like Chris Mason or Al Montoya.  Instead he chose a goaltender with a decade long track record as a 60+ game starter.  That was not an accident or coincidence, it was a message.  The goaltending paradigm in the Burgh has changed.

Simply put, the days where Marc-Andre Fleury can expect to start 4 of 5 games on reputation alone are over.  The Pens have made it clear that if he’s not the best goaltender, he sits.  I truly believe Fleury must outplay Vokoun to keep his job, for better or for worse.

The issue is no longer assessing Fleury’s culpability in losses.  It’s now about whether Fleury can be the difference maker in Penguin wins.  Good is no longer good enough.  Fleury has to be great, and consistently so.

That’s his pedigree and his pay grade.  When you have a $5 Million per year goaltender and a shaky defense, the expectations are clear.  Fleury needs to return to his 2009 and 2010 post season form.  He cannot be a caretaker net minder on this team; he has to be the Jonathan Quick or Tim Thomas style difference maker he is fully capable of being.

There is no getting around the fact that Fleury was terrible against Philly last year.  We can debate the reasons why; including my staunch belief he was grievously overplayed in the regular season (twice starting 4 games in 6 days).  There is no doubt in my mind he wore down physically in April.

And I will not let the Penguins off the hook for what was a historically bad defensive performance in that series.  No goaltender would have thrived behind that defensive abomination.  That loss put everyone on notice; the team has to be better from 1 to 20; including the head coach. 

But simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury must be better.  He has to be a post season difference maker on this team every bit as much as Crosby and Malkin.

 
The Pens have departed early from the playoffs in three straight seasons.  There were plenty of reasons the Pens lost in 2010 and 2011 and Fleury is only one of them.  In fairness, Fleury played better than he gets credit for against Tampa and without 87 and 71 there was little or no chance the Pens would win that series.

Last year however was a different animal.  Yes the defense was exceptionally poor at times but it also became clear that other than game 5, Fleury was not making the big saves when needed.  He lost his confidence and his game fell apart.  Even after the Consol crowd performed mental CPR in game 5, Fleury crashed back to earth in game 6.

His performance was bad at face value; incomprehensible in the context of how great Fleury was for most of the season. 

It was truly the first time since he arrived in Pittsburgh that I questioned Fleury’s future with the organization.  It was also eerily reminiscent of his early season struggles in 2010-11.  That was the year that Fleury struggled terribly for two months; coinciding fortuitously with the greatest stretch of performance in Brent Johnson's life.

Which brings us back to Tomas Vokoun.

I am by no means his biggest supporter.  He always struck me as a great regular season goalie on bad teams; a guy who puts up a high save percentage but never wins anything.  You cannot objectively evaluate Vokoun’s career without conceding that he has only twice appeared in the post season and NEVER won a playoff series.  Even his work for the Czech Olympic team was subpar the one year he was their starter.

But there is no questioning that Vokoun has a number one track record and a starter’s pedigree.  There is also no question that the Penguins have never teamed a goaltender of this caliber with MAF.  At the very least, he’s capable of pushing Fleury; at the most he’s capable of taking his job.  That’s something Johnson could never do; even during his career season of 2010-11.

At face value, Vokoun was brought in to ease Fleury’s workload.  In reality however he was brought in as goaltending insurance and a legitimate threat to the number one job.  To wit, Fleury had a strong game last week in Ottawa and followed it up with a so-so performance against the Islanders; a game where he allowed just one obviously weak goal.   It’s the type of game that you could easily excuse a goaltender for given that the Pens were flat top to bottom.  In past years, that’s exactly what would have happened.

Not this year.

This year, Bylsma went immediately to Vokoun.  And Vokoun responded with a tremendous and stabilizing performance behind the best Penguin defensive effort of the year.  My guess is he will be back in the nets on Saturday against New Jersey.  A strong performance there and he might get the floundering Craps on Sunday as well.  That never would have happened with Johnson last season.

In the end, this is a good thing.  I believe Fleury is at his best when he’s pushed; as shown by Johnson in 2011 and by Ty Conklin in 2008.  Fleury never played better than he did after Conklin set a shockingly high bar with career best work.  When Fleury is at that level he is absolutely a game changing goaltender.  Having legitimate competition for post season playing time might very well push him back to it.

I also recall Bob Johnson doing the same thing to Barrasso during the first half of the 1990-91 season.  Barrasso was coming off a sluggish 1989-90 season and perhaps taking his number one position for granted.  I’m fairly confident that Tommy was not thrilled sitting behind the uninspired likes of Wendell Young and Frank Pietrangelo but ultimately the message got through; you have to be better.  That season ended with Pens carrying their first Stanley Cup.

The Penguins have some work to do to be legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.  That includes addressing a glaring need for grit and two obvious holes; a defensive defensemen and a second line winger.  As talented as this team is, those needs MUST be addressed. 

And just assuredly, they must get elite level goaltending.  Fleury has proven he can give that in the past.  This year, he'll have to prove it again.

The NHL Makes the Case for a Shorter Season

I have covered ad nauseum in previous blogs my nearly cult-like love of hockey.  Given that, it should be obvious to my readers that I can and will watch the NHL whenever and wherever it’s played.  I want that disclaimer out their clear as day before I attack the topic of a shorter NHL season.

With that caveat let me say this, I’ve never been more convinced than I am right now that the NHL season is too long.  And the NHL, in the infinite short-sightedness of its ridiculous lockout is the group that persuaded me.

Yes 82 games make great entertainment for the hockey devotees of the world.  Yes there are many of us that are fully tuned in to watch the Penguins play Winnipeg in October.  And by this time in our lives, every one of us knows that the result of that game does not make a damn bit of difference in the grand scheme of the sports universe.  We are watching it purely for entertainment value.

I would argue there is more than enough entertainment value for even the most devoted hockey fans in a 70 game season.  And the result would be a significantly better regular season product.  It might not eliminate the notion of the regular season being meaningless, but it would cut in to it quite a bit.

Here’s the thing; before this year this concept was mostly theoretical.  But after enduring the length and breadth of the dumbest labor stoppage in sports history I can definitively state the following; life did indeed go on for me without the National Hockey League. 

Not only that, there seems to be a great deal of excitement surrounding the 48 game season.  Certainly that is due in part to hockey fans simply rejoicing over the return of their sport but I would argue there is more.  Simply put, every game this season will take on infinitely greater significance.  You can argue that no one game will make or break the Penguins season.  But you can argue with equal vigor that there will be no throw away games in Rochester this season.

My wife Emily discovered two interesting things this week about her beloved Blackhawks; the season ticket waiting list actually increased during the lockout and ticket prices on the secondary market are higher than years past.  Certainly this is not the case in Columbus, Miami, or Phoenix but let’s be honest, things would be no different in those cities if the season had started in on time.  Apparently reports of the NHL’s demise were premature.

I’m not saying I did not miss hockey during the lockout.  I did...a lot.  And like most of the sports die-hard fans I got angrier and angrier with each passing day.  I’m sure there will be some ramifications to the sport and it may take several years before we fully understand the depth of them.

The reality however is that I did not truly feel a void in my life until there was no thanksgiving week Penguin game (for which we subbed in the infinitely forgettable Byron Leftwich experience).  And again, this is coming from a guy who lives and breathes the NHL.  Unlike in 2004 I did not resort to desperation activities like Chicago Wolves games in Rosemount or for the love of all that’s good and holy…the NBA.  I’m not sure what was worse that year; looking forward to seeing Kari Lehtonen play live in an old airplane hangar or attending six Kirk Hinrich starts at the United Center (a debate I hope never to fully engage).

And there were certainly low points during the lockout; the worst of which came when I found myself watching the Jets and Titans play a Thursday night game that set NFL football back four decades.  How bad is a sporting event when you are silently begging for Tim Tebow to play, purely for the entertainment value?  But the reality is I had other options.

I rediscovered something back in October for example.  I actually enjoy the baseball playoffs.  That’s an easy thing to forget when you grow up in Pittsburgh and move to Chicago and thus rarely if ever put post season baseball on your sports calendar.  With no hockey in circulation I found the playoffs a more that suitable substitute for the aforementioned Penguins/Winnipeg clash.

In past years I would have been watching hockey without a second thought; especially given that we follow two teams in the HaberSeto household.  But I’m definitively in the minority on this amongst American Sports fans.  The simply reality is that outside of the zealous hockey inter-sanctum, most people will choose baseball, college football, or even the NBA (at least if TMZSPN has its way). 

The reality is that the NHL should not put fans in that position.  The league gets buried in the October sports shuffle in part because of its overall ranking but also because fans realize that the game they are watching is likely meaningless.  Yes I once choose the Penguins home opener over get this, a Pirate playoff game (obviously not recently) but most conflicted sports fans will choose the more meaningful event.

I also see no need for hockey in June.  Most casual fans have moved on by then and unless their team is still playing, they’ve check out.  The Penguins skated their first Stanley Cup on May 25^th, 1991.  Quite frankly, I don’t see any reason the cup should be awarded later than that.

So what’s my solution?  Cut the season back to 70 games and remove four weeks from the schedule.  Three of those weeks would be on the front end and one on the back.  Under that construction this year’s NHL season, sans lockout would have started on November 1^st and ended on March 31^st.  That takes the NHL off the ridiculously crowded October sports calendar and also sets up the annual bash Bettman ceremony for late May.

On top of which the regular season, which is often perceived as insignificant (see Kings, Los Angeles), will be far more competitive.  No a 70 game season will not rival the NFL or college football for game to game significance.  There will still be a build-up period early in the year. But with 12 fewer games, teams will have to dig in a lot sooner.  There simply will not be enough time to recover from a bad first month.

The shorter season will also reduce the ever increasing wear and tear on the players.  Hockey is faster and more physical than ever and concussions are rampant (see Crosby, Sid).  All things being equal, there is not a player in the league who could rationally object to 12 fewer games.

But therein lies the rub.  All things are not equal.  Taking away 15% of the regular season schedule means taking away 15% of the league’s revenue (give or take).  It also means the players would have to give up 15% of their salaries.  And heaven forbid Ryan Miller has to get by on only $5.1 Million annually.  One canonly imagine his public vitriol towards Bettman if that scenario came to pass.

Which means, at the end of the day there is a greater chance of Disque and I facing off in a steel cage match for the WWE championship than there is the NHL shortening its season.  It’s simply not going to happen.  The league wants to maximize every dollar of revenue it can get, at least in the year’s it’s not foolishly scuttling its product for 3 ½ months.   So it will stick with the 82 games no matter how many times the 8^th seed wins the Stanley Cup.

Given that reality, it will enjoy the 48 game mini-season for the unique, one-time entertainment value it will provide.  I have an inkling that after a sluggish start; you might see some of the best regular season hockey ever played.  For once every game will truly matter.  Even the ones in Winnipeg.

 BETTER LATE THAN NEVER…Welcome back NHL