The Rapid Demise of Kristopher Letang

There was a time, perhaps as recently as one year ago that Kris Letang appeared on the verge of superstardom.  He was a justifiable Norris Trophy candidate with blazing speed, and wondrous offensive talents.  Letang could play 25 minutes and positively influence the game in all three zones.

There was a time when Letang was so clearly and obviously the Pens best young defensemen that they traded away Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski and did not re-sign Sergei Gonchar.  Those moves landed the Penguins critical assets; Chris Kunitz, James Neal, and Matt Niskanen along with critically needed salary cap space.  They were moves that I fully supported and endorsed; in large part due to my personal faith in Letang.

That time appears to be over.

Letang is now considered the team’s weakest defensive link.  Instead of a third franchise superstar, he’s  viewed as a contractual albatross that will hold back the organization for years (8 to be exact).  Once the apple of Pierre McGuire’s eye; he’s is now a frequent target of Pierre’s on air, verbal assaults (more so than even Marc-Andre Fleury).  You can almost hear it in your mind, ”Kristopher Letang cannot make that play!”

It’s disturbing to consider the likelihood that Letang will remain a Penguin, at $7.25 million per while a potentially superior player in Niskanen will leave via free agency.  It’s frightening to consider how much other depth the Penguins will lose as they become progressively more top heavy.   

Let me clarify two crucial things here.  First, I was a huge Letang fan almost from the first time I saw him in a Penguin uniform.  I championed his promotion over the aforementioned disappointments Whitney and Goligoski.  I maintain that he played phenomenal hockey throughout the 2009 cup run and that his performance that year debunks the myth that he is incapable of playing defense at a high level.

Second, this analysis is wholly separate from the tragic stroke he suffered in January.  For a person his age to endure that kind of event is unfathomable.  Forget about Letang the hockey player.  We should all be thrilled that Letang the person appears to have made a full recovery.  For him to be back on the ice this soon is nothing short of a miracle.  Quite frankly, if I were Ray Shero, I would have been very uncomfortable putting Letang back in the line-up this soon; both for hockey reasons and health reasons.   

It’s been pointed out by people I greatly respect that we are seeing the same kinds of mistakes today that we saw from Letang before the stoke.  I cannot argue that point.  What I can argue is that a player coming off a stroke and a ten week layoff might struggle to fix those issues in the moment.  Even if Letang appears 100%, it seems perfectly within reason that his decision making would be affected, especially in the violent, high speed world of the National Hockey League.

In any event, I’ve come to two parallel conclusions on Letang.  The first is that his contract was a huge and potentially franchise crippling error in judgment. The second is that the Shero should explore any avenue; no matter how faint or unlikely, to moving him in the offseason.  It’s kind of like Roberto Luongo without the cap acceleration penalty issues.  Move him for anything; even if anything is ultimately nothing (or Joel Bouchard and Richard Littner, whichever is deemed less)

I am not simply availing myself the benefits of 20/20 hindsight.  I thought the contract was mistake the day it was signed, though not for the reasons some might think.  The Boston series was a red flag of course; turnovers galore and a stubborn refusal to make smart simple plays in key situations.  But all things being equal, I could have overlooked that as a fluky bad performance.

The reality of modern sports is you cannot judge a player simply on talent or potential.  You have to judge them on value for their salary cap dollar.  At face value I think the Pens overpaid for Letang but its worse when you consider the bigger economic picture.

The Pens are prohibitively top heavy against the cap, which is why they were trotting out half of Wilkes Barres in their bottom 5 all year.  They were already committed to $8.7 Million annually to Sid for a dozen years.  To my way of thinking, they could only afford one other high dollar, long-term contract.  The required a choice between Letang and Evgeni Malkin.  And to me there was no choice there at all.

For one thing, elite second line centers are a true rarity in the NHL.  I’ve learned that watching the Blackhawks repeated failures to back-up Jonathan Toews.  Malkin also provides a critical hedge against Crosby’s concussion and general injury woes. 

Of greater consequence however is that Shero has spent the last 5 years drafting almost exclusively talented young defensemen.  How does it make sense to have so many high end defense prospects in the organization and then put your franchise in salary cap purgatory to sign another?  Even if the Pens truly believed Letang was a Duncan Keith or Zdeno Chara caliber franchise defensemen I would question the deal.  And as much as I liked Letang before last May, even I never thought he was at that level.

All of that ignores the fact that the Pens have a potential poor man’s Nicklas Lidstrom on their roster in Olli Maata.  I have to believe they would not have signed Letang if they had any idea Maata would be this good, this fast.  Realistically you cannot blame Shero for that, or even for not foreseeing the incredible growth in Niskannen this season.   If Letang’s contract expired one year later we would not even be debating this.  The extension, the stroke, and the meteoric rises of Maata and Niskanen is best described as a confluence of truly unlucky timing.

The resulting Pens cap nightmare is eerily reminiscent of two past comparables.  One was the post lockout Tampa Bay Lightning who capped out on St’Louis, Lecavalier, and Richards and thus could not afford defense or goaltending.  The other is the 2010-11 Blackhawks who were forced to hold a post championship fire sale due to a comparably ill-conceived deal to Brian Campbell (a remarkably similar player).  The Hawks were rescued two years later only due to former GM Dale Tallon’s charitable, salary floor reclamation program in Miami.  We can only hope that some team out there would be so generous with Letang’s potential (and risk).

That assumes of course that Shero is willing to move him and I’m not even sure he is.  Trading Letang would be difficult, maybe impossible at face value but more so if Shero truly believe he’s a franchise player.  We’ve come to realize how critical puck moving defensemen are in today’s NHL, as long as they are paid the right price.  For my money (or Shero’s), Martin, Niskanen and Maata are far better bets.

I’m fairly sure I would not have believed that 12 months ago.