Penguins Living on a Wing and a Prayer

With the World Cup completed, Lebron “decided” and football season still two months away, we are officially, knee deep in the sports dead zone. There probably is no worse time in sports than the MLB all star break, the only three days of the year that I question my high def television purchase.

The dead zone is thus a wonderful time for forward looking contemplation.

It was about this time last year that I debated what I called the Jordan Staal dilemma. There was nothing new or exciting going on with Staal but idle minds have time to think. I contemplated whether the Pens could continue to win with three great centers, making a combined $21 Million per year and deteriorating stable of mediocre wingers. My ultimate conclusion was that it was risky but you could not bail on the model, or Staal right after a Stanley Cup parade.

Alas, the Staal dilemma is no more. The Penguins are clearly not trading him and I can’t say I blame them. How do you part with a 22 year old, 6’4” center who has 25 to 30 goal ability and a Selke Trophy nomination for his defensive work? The answer is you don’t, at least not if you are Ray Shero and he’s signed for three more years.

I went out of my way last year to clarify that all things being equal, I was not in favor of trading Staal. My concern was that the Pens center driven model was not sustainable. As the salary caps noose constricts year by year, the Penguin wingers get progressively worse. We’ve gone from Sykora, Malone, and some guy who used to play for Detroit, to Guerin and Fedotenko (on his last legs), to quite literally a wing and a prayer. And I just don’t think that is working anymore.

I truly believe the model worked in 2008-09 for two reasons. First, the Penguins got miraculous post season performances from Guerin, Talbot, and Feds. All three played well above their offensive abilities. Second, and more important, Sid and Geno flat out carried the team with non stop brilliant performances. As great as they both are, it’s just not feasible to expect that year after year without help.

The lack of quality wings is why the Pens struggle against strong defensive teams. It’s easy to shut down Sid when you’re not concerned about Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz beating you. Maybe you noticed the Pens went 0 and 6 against New Jersey last year? How about the disappearance of Sid and Geno for most of the Detroit and Montreal series’ over the last three years?

That’s why I think the Pens have come to the inevitable conclusion that Geno has to move to the wing. Yes there are risks and arguments against it but simply stated, they don’t have a choice.

It’s a risky move switching an all world center to the wing. You would think that if somebody can play center they can play wing but it’s not always that easy. Staal was a disaster on the wing; go figure since it minimizes his most important asset, his two way ability. As for Geno, he always seems a bit less engaged on the flanks and far less sure of himself defensively. I’ve made the comment before that I think Sid and Geno have zero chemistry at even strength. They just make up for it with superior talent.

That being said, it’s just as risky to trot out Geno with Max and Tangradi for an entire season. And that assumes Tangradi is even ready for the NHL, an assumption of which I’m highly skeptical. We are all hoping he’s ready. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things but as Cleveland fans will attest, hopes do not always come true.

Let’s be clear about this as well, there is no other solution available short of a trade. The Pens have no cap room left. According to my new best friends at Capgeek.com, they have $2.2 Million to sign 3 players. Shero is not going to spend right to the cap limit, nor should he. He should leave room for at least one minimum wage player. That means the most he can spend is $1.7 Million on 3 players. The league minimum is $500,000 per player, so do the math. There will be no low priced miracle in 2010…unless there is a trade.

I am wholeheartedly against trading Geno. Just seeing how much Sid struggles when Malkin is not in the line-up convinces me that he’s every bit as critical to the Pens success as our captain and savior. I’m more willing to deal Staal, in the same way I’m more willing to have a root canal than I am to watch The View. Both are risky trades. Remember how the Pens never quite recovered from breaking up the 90 to 93 core (and breaking up Kevin Stevens’ face)?

I would love to see Chris Kunitz sent packing. In my mind he continues to be a major cap liability at $3.75 Million per. As an aside, I remain stupefied as to how an injury plagued “power forward” who scores 15 goals with the best playmaker in the NHL can make the same money as a certain Slovakian goaltender who personally stole two playoff series. Alas, that’s a blog for another day.

Kunitz gives the Penguins a tad less than Pascal Dupuis at three times the cap hit. That does not work in the salary cap world. Alas as Filoni reminds us, other teams are not lining up to take his contract. Remember, the Pens took him to rid themselves of Ryan Whitney. Making matters worse, the remaining wingers in free agency are a hodge podge of mediocrity, unless Ilya Kovalchuk lowers his salary demands by about $6 Million per year (and if he get’s $10 Million per I promise projectile vomiting).

So that really only leaves one choice, move Geno to wing and hope for the best. Honestly, I always felt Geno was better suited there anyway. He’s not great on faceoffs (understatement), and certainly not the greatest defensive center we’ve ever seen. And we have a decade of Jaromir Jagr clips that prove a winger can be a dominant puck carrier. That works great with Staal since his strength is more the dirty work in the corners anyway.

Even with that change, the Pens may struggle a bit to find another top 6 winger. In that scenario, the Superstar becomes your best choice for third line center duty with Cooke Monster and likely Kennedy. Unless Bill Guerin decides to donate another season to the Pens at league minimum the team has a problem. Again, That assumes Tangradi is not ready and I don’t see how the Pens can make any other assumption. It’s a HUGE bonus if he proves me wrong.

Still, I’ll take those concerns over another year of Geno centering the grind line. The Penguins just don’t have the wingers to make three top centers work. And that’s under the best case scenario, assuming no injuries and the Dupuis repeats what was a miracle season for him last year. I guess we could also hope that Kunitz actually stays healthy and scores 30 goals while playing with Sid. Just as we could hope that ESPN sells its NBA contract to the ‘E’ network and rekindles its relationship with the NHL. In short, don’t count on it.

The good news of course is that any move with Geno is not set in stone. If the move is truly a debacAL, the Pens can always move him back to center. That being said, I think if the Pens are going to do this, they need to show a commitment to it. Geno needs to know that this is his role and learn to maximize his performance in it. I don’t buy the ridiculous arguments that he will sulk and be unhappy. How can playing wing with Staal, be worse than centering for Fedotenko and Poni-k?

In the end, it’s not ideal but that’s life in the salary cap world. Teams have to make tough decisions to fill gaps. The Pens did a great job shoring up their blue line; they are strong down the middle and solid in the nets (no matter what the moronic Fleury bashing minority might think). The wing situation however has become untenable. For better or for worse, Geno is by far the best answer.