A TRAVESTY OF SEEDS…FIRST ROUND NHL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

It’s been 13 seasons since the NHL converted to a conference style playoff format, with guaranteed top 3 seeds for division winners. I’m a huge fan of the conference format; but the latter stipulation has caused a fair bit of controversy over the years. This year it has made a flat-out mockery of post season match-ups.

At the crux of this injustice are the Pittsburgh Penguins; owners of the NHL’s 4th best record overall. Their reward for such excellence, an opening round match-up with the team finishing 5th. In a system that made any sense at all this match-up would not occur until AT LEAST the second round. Honestly this is the most ridiculous miscarriage of post season justice since…three months ago when a 12-4 Steeler team was forced to play on the road against 8-8 Denver.

And such is life.

Champions do not make excuses; champions just find a way to win. If the Penguins are truly championship caliber, they will overcome what is an unfortunate break of seeding. If they are not, they will not. Consider that the Pens got a huge break two years ago, facing two inferior opponents in Ottawa and Montreal. They lost in the second round anyway because the 2009-10 Penguins were not playing at a championship level.

Here is the straight dirt for hockey fans; there is no team in the NHL that is deeper or more talented than your Pittsburgh Penguins. The top three center group of Malkin, Crosby, and Staal is far and away the best in the NHL. For the first time since 2008 (the first cup year), the Pens have enough quality scoring wingers to compliment both Crosby and Malkin. The team has an elite goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury, a Norris Trophy caliber defensemen in Kris Letang and a solid if unspectacular group of D-men around him.

If this team plays to its full capabilities, nobody should be able to beat them. Not even a deep and talented Goon Squad that has given them problems all season long. Keep in mind that I have not even mentioned the intangible qualities which are Stanley Cup experience (including Coach Dan Byslma), and a hunger built on two consecutive post season flame outs.

A first round match-up against a bitter rival can be a mixed blessing. This is obviously the most difficult first round match-up in this year’s playoffs. That will force the Pens to be at their best from game 1 on with little margin for error. A series against Ottawa would obviously be easier than dealing with Claude Giroux, Bozo the Hartnell, Mr. Universe (Ilya Bryzgolav) and the man Penguin fans love to hate, Jaromir Jagr. And it could get brutally physical at times which is a concern for subsequent series.

At the same time, the Penguins parlayed a first round victory over Philly in 2009 to a Stanley Cup championship. And rest assured there was no less bitterness and hatred between the teams then, no matter how ugly things got two weeks ago.

Playoff analysts (including me) like to critique match-ups, rate strengths and weaknesses, and come up with clever insights as to who will win a series. Well I’m not doing that here because there is no point. The Pens are the best team in the league if they want to be. That means if they play with the requisite heart, grit, determination, physicality and intelligence necessary in the post season. It means showing that immeasurable determination that championship hockey teams possess.

If the Pens do all that they will win this series. If they try and win on talent alone, as they did at times down the stretch, they will replicate the horrible, awful loss that is never spoken of to the Islanders in 1993.

I’m betting on the former; as is my beautiful wife Emily…Pens in 6.

As for my remaining picks I find myself in a painful situation. Namely I’m picking no fewer than five teams that I hate to win their first round series. My wife in contrast sticks to her guns and backs only teams she likes. Here’s hoping her predictions blow mine away. Historically speaking, they likely will.  Both are noted below.


HENRICK LUNDQVIST (1) VS OTTAWA SENATORS (8)

Why New York will win in 6 games (Adam and Emily)

Both teams are trending in the wrong direction at season’s end and John Torterella is popping off about arrogant organizations and conspiracies. The Rangers are ripe to be upset, but Ottawa just is not the team to do it. In case you have any doubt say this to yourself ten times…Lundqvist versus Craig Anderson. Besides, Jason Spezza is Joe Thornton soft come playoff time and the Rangers actually have a few guys who can score this year.


BOSTON BRUINS (2) VS WASHINGTON CRAPITALS (7)

Why Washington will win in 7 games (picked with GREAT RELUCTANCE by Adam)

The Craps played up to their moniker all season long and were in serious danger of missing the post season ten days ago. Alas, playing in a dreadful division doth have its perks and thus Washington stayed alive. Now suddenly Nicklas Backstrom is back, Ovie is on fire, and the Craps are peaking at the perfect time.

The Bruins in contrast are trending very much the wrong direction. They started the season in brilliant fashion, seemingly determined to defeat the dreaded Stanley Cup hangover. Somewhere along the way however the hangover caught up (a la Chicago and Pittsburgh the last two years). The B’s just have not been that good in the second half of the season. They rely too much on Tim Thomas who seems to be wearing down. Injuries may prevent Thomas from having to pump either Michael Neuvirth or Tomas Vokun’s tires; but I foresee some bizarre 2009 Varlomov reprisal if Braden Holtby is in nets for Washington.

Why Boston will in 7 games (Emily)

Because Thomas has enough money to pay his cab fare even if Peggy won’t get him a new credit card. And the closest Ovechkin will ever get to the Stanly Cup is X Box.


FLORIDA PANTHERS (3) VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS (6)

Why New Jersey will win (Adam, 6 games, Emily 5)

Because somebody has to.

Prop bet for the series; higher number, total goals scored or total television viewers? The only excitement for me is how long it takes Kevin Dineen to yank Jose Theordore after publically declaring him “the man” in goal. This series is a hockey travesty and a singular case study for blowing up the current seed structure.


BOBBY LU AND THE FREAK TWINS (1) VS LOS ANGELES KINGS (8) 

Why Vancouver will win in 6 games (Adam)

Because your typical World Cup soccer match features more goals than the LA Kings score for Vezina candidate Jonathan Quick. If the Kings had any offense, ANY, I would say an upset is possible. Alas, given their struggles and Jeff Carter’s annual foot injury I cannot see it happening.  Besides, Vancouver's abudant nightlife will likely consume a fair amount of Carter and Mike Richards' free time.  The Slash and Run Pansies are going down…just not here.

Why Los Angeles will win in 7 games (Emily)

No self-respecting Blackhawks fan (or any true NHL hockey fan) thinks that Vancouver will win. Ever! And even a terrible team can score goals when Roberto Luongo is flailing at pucks from his stomach.


ST. LOUIS BLUES (2) VS SAN JOSE SHARKS (7)

Why St. Louis will win in 5 games (Adam)

Because Ken Hitchcock is back behind the bench, fighting with all his might to drag the NHL back to the dead puck era. The Blues have done so much damage to offensive hockey that noted goaltending sieve Brian Elliott allowed barely 1.50 goals per game this year. Brian Elliott. Seriously. And the Sharks, who usually wait until the post season to choke, appeared to pack it in for the season about two months ago.

Why San Jose will win in 6 games (Emily)

Antti Niemi is her favorite goalie of all-time. The Blues play a ridiculously cheesy opening video at their home games, their fans do a dorky power play dance, and they openly condone hand-to-hand violence against opposing-team’s mascots. Antti Niemi is tried, true, and tested. I can’t stand the grinding style of play that St. Louis utilizes – no team should ever be able to win a playoff series playing like that. Also, St. Louis has minimal playoff experience. By the way, did I mention how much she likes Antti Niemi?


THE HOCKY TEAM FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE WINNIPEG JETS (3) VS CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (6)

Why the Hawks will win in 7 (Adam)

The Hawks are deeper and more talented and that is without Jonathan Toews who appears likely to return. Keep in mind that in spite of the seeds, the Hawks finished 4 points ahead of Phoenix during the season. I’m a little uneasy with Corey Crawford between the pipes but he’s been stronger of late. And Mike Smith reminds me way to much of his current goalie coach Sean Burke, invincible in March, invisible in April.

Why the Hawks will win in 5 (Emily)…DUH (cue Chelsea Dagger)!


NASHVILLE PREDATORS (4) VS DETROIT DEAD WINGS (5)

Why Detroit will win in 7

(Adam)

This will unnerve the Pekka Rinne admiration society going on around the NHL but I see this series much as I see the Hawks and Yotes. I expect Nashville to battle like crazy…and lose. Great talent beats hard work when great talent is willing to work hard. I think Detroit will do just that. Bad break for Nashville, another team that deserved a better first round match-up than the league’s ridiculous seeding policy gave them.

(Emily)

Hatred of hockey teams south of the Mason Dixon line > Hatred of Detroit…though just barely.