The Risk/Reward Battle with Sidney Crosby

There was fantastic news emerging from the new energy barn on Tuesday. Sidney Crosby is, in his own words, symptom free for the last few days and feeling significantly better. There is no timetable for his return although Sid greased the skids a bit by suggesting Sunday as a possibility.

Needless to say, this is creating quite the buzz in Penguin nation. I freely admit to being shocked by this news. I had all but committed to the reality that Sid was done for the season. In case there was any doubt of my convictions, I’ve created a permanent written record of them on the World Wide Web.

http://habersp0rtsblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/time-to-embrace-life-after-crosbyfor.html

For the record, I am more than happy to be wrong on this issue. As a Penguin fan nothing would make me happier than a healthy Sidney Crosby returning for the 2012 playoffs. I may have been wrong about Sid’s health prospects but I stand behind my other comment in the article. The Pens with Sidney Crosby are a legitimate Stanley Cup favorite. Without him they are at best a long shot. That point was amplified by Ray Shero’s inability to improve the team at the trade deadline.

To be clear, I don’t blame Shero for that result. It’s pretty obvious that there was a limited supply of players available and the asking prices were exorbitant. Paul Gaustad would look great in a Penguin uniform for two months but absolutely not at the cost of a first round draft pick. I stand by my belief that additional pieces were needed but at some point you have to deal in reality.

In the end, Shero made the right decision. If he did so with full knowledge of Crosby’s expected return it was a brilliant display of prudence in a non-existent trade market. If he did so only on blind faith, so be it. The simple fact is this. If Crosby is healthy, the Penguins have the best top three centers in the NHL bar none. That’s easy to forget given they’ve played only 10 of the last 154 games together.

The key phrase being of course, “If Crosby gets healthy.” And that is where this gets tricky.

You see nobody really knows if Crosby is healthy. Nobody knows if he’s 100% healed or if he’s simply survived a few days without symptoms. Nobody knows if he’s set for a decade of dominance or if another innocuous hit will sideline him for six months. Nobody by the way includes the Penguins, their doctors, the fans, the media, and most of all, Sid.

What’s even more clear is that there is limited if any ability to put a time line on this uncertainty. Crosby sat out 10 ½ months last year before returning. Eight games later he was back on the shelf suffering three months of symptoms. That means that the risk of him getting injured might be every bit the same if he returns tomorrow as if he returns next October.

That’s a fairly significant uncertainty when you are talking about a face of the franchise superstar. One who just happens to be one year away from unrestricted free agency.

I’ve made this point repeatedly; the Penguins are 15 months away from having to offer Crosby what figures to be a 7 year (or longer) contract for $10 Million per year (or more). If Crosby is healthy, that’s a bargain price. If he’s constantly out of the line-up with debilitating concussion issues, it’s a franchise killing deal. And just imagine if the price of keeping Crosby is losing Evgeni Malkin? Then it only gets worse.

Which means it’s fully in the best interest of the Penguins to make sure Crosby is healthy. If they cannot get comfortable with his long-term health they must let him go, no matter how painful that would be. And for my money the Pens are one more Crosby concussion from that happening.

Given all this uncertainty what do they do? For my money you get quantitative and play the risk reward game. Simply put, there will ALWAYS be uncertainty and risk surrounding Crosby’s cranium. It is now a permanent part of his profile. The question is thus, when does the reward for playing him outweigh that risk of further injury?

Last March I published a blog suggesting the Pens shut Crosby down for the year.

http://habersp0rtsblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/short-term-pain-for-long-term-gain.html

My reasoning was very much based on the risk/reward premise. Clearly he had a significant head injury that was taking a long-time to heal. Nobody knew for sure how much time that would take. The offseason provided between 4 and 6 months of free healing time, meaning time for Crosby to get better without the pressure of missing games.

The caveat of course was scuttling what appeared on January 1st of that year to be a clear cut Stanley Cup favorite. So be it.  The Pens had already lost Malkin to a season ending knee injury. Without Geno, their chances of winning the cup were significantly reduced, even with a healthy Crosby. And by all accounts Crosby was not going to be 100% healthy. In the end, it did not seem worth risking Crosby’s long-term health when there was minimal (if any) chance of winning the cup if he returned.

This year my views are in categorical opposition.

Not only is Malkin healthy, he has regained his form as arguably the most dominant offensive player in the game. As ridiculous as this sounds, Crosby might be the second line center when he returns. Put Crosby and Malkin (in whatever order) and Jordan Staal on your top three lines and you are talking about a no brainer Stanley Cup favorite.

On top of that, championship windows are short. You never know when they will come crashing down; a point crystallized to Penguin fans by Crosby’s recent trials and tribulations. The Pens sacrificed a tailor made championship opportunity last year. I have no wish to see them repeat this act in 2012, especially given Sid's uncertain future.

The most critical point is this. Having watched the development of this issue for a year, I can now confidently say we have absolutely no idea how long Crosby truly needs to get healthy. Last year we speculated that Sid would get healthy over the offseason. Now we know it is not that simple. Crosby might return today and be 100% healthy, especially if his neck injury really was the primary issue. Or he could sit out until October and immediately suffer another trauma. There is simply no way to know.

What it comes down to is this. If Sidney Crosby wants to continue as an NHL hockey player, he must at some point prove that he stay healthy and perform at the highest level. Given what I’ve described above, there is no time like the present; assuming the Pens get comfortable that he truly is symptom free.

Almost.

Which leads to my final point on the risk/reward matrix. The playoffs start on or about April 11th. The risk of playing Crosby now seems pretty much equivalent to the risk of playing him then. The major difference is the reward. The Penguins get no reward for Sid playing Sunday in Boston. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose. The opportunities for reward exist only come playoff time.

In short, there is zero upside to rushing Crosby back during the regular season. The Pens have survived, even thrived without 87 all season long. Another few weeks will not change anything.

I’m not advocating needlessly holding him out, just to hold him out. I am saying make sure that “symptom free” sticks before he comes back. Any game he plays before April 11th is gravy in my opinion. Nobody knows how long is long enough. That said, 3 ½ months of symptoms compared to “a few days” of symptom free is too tight a tolerance for what is at stake.

There is precedent in for players returning from a long absence at the start of the playoffs and performing well. Gary Roberts did it in 2008 and was still fully capable of terrorizing Ottawa. Peter Forsberg did it in or around 2001. Sid has already shown this season that he needs only about two shifts to get back to top speed.

Here’s hoping for a healthy return of Sid the Kid as soon as possible, but not a minute before.