Short Term Pain for Long Term Gain - Crosby's Comeback Can Wait

Pittsburgh’s current hockey savior skated in full pads on Monday, ending his 68 day ice hockey exile. That short skate, plus two others that followed represent mere baby steps in Sidney Crosby’s recovery from his January concussion(s). And yet the mere sight of number 87 in uniform took Penguin fans on a rollercoaster of extreme emotions ranging from unbridled optimism to trepidation and outright fear.

Truth be told, any reaction at this point is premature. The simple fact that Crosby skated does not insure his return this season. It’s reasonable to assume that skating is part of his rehabilitation routine; a routine that could last an additional three weeks or three months. Much as we would like to believe otherwise, it’s very possible that we will not see Sidney Crosby play another game this season.

That said (for you Jared), I doubt the Pens would have made such a public spectacle of Sid skating if they were not reasonably comfortable with his chances.

So at the risk of putting the cart way before the horse, the obvious question is; should Crosby return this season? Are the risks implicit in his return worth the potential rewards of it?

From a pure hockey standpoint, there is no discussion. Sidney Crosby is the best player in the world right now. It goes without saying that his return to the line-up would measurably improve the Pens Stanley Cup chances. If he were rehabbing a knee or a shoulder injury there would be no debate; the Pens would suit him up the minute he was even close to ready.

Unfortunately that’s not the case. Crosby is dealing with a significant head injury; in point of fact, two head injuries. The concussion(s) was serious enough to keep him off the ice for nearly ten weeks during which time he continued to experience symptoms. That’s too big a red flag to brush aside based on two or three healthy weeks.

I understand that at some point injured players must take the risk implicit with returning to the line-up. With all due respect to Aaron Asham, I’m far more willing to accept the risks of his returning too early than I am for our face of the franchise superstar.

The Penguins know much more about this situation than we do. They have top notch physicians studying Crosby’s cranium and making informed medical judgments. And yet those same physicians basically threw their hands up for the last 2 ½ months and admitted essentially that the brain will be what it will be. They are doctors, not miracle workers. I’m sure Anaheim goalie Jonas Hiller would confirm that sentiment.

I’ll reiterate something I pointed out in late January when I first expressed my Crosby concussion concerns. Heath Miller endured one of the most brutal head shots I’ve ever seen against Baltimore and was back on the field three weeks later. Sid has been out more than three times that long. That should give some context on how serious this is. Remember, two concussions in five days; the second of which occurred before the first healed.

Concussions are cumulative. Each is worse than the one before; each one takes a greater toll. You simply can not be too careful given that reality. I keep thinking about how Bill Cowher and the Steelers enabled Ben Roethlisberger’s overzealous return from his motorcycle accident in 2006. His mid season concussion against Atlanta seemed almost preordained given those circumstances.

I’m not sure that anybody can definitively determine what the proper healing time is for this injury. I think we can all agree that six months is a safer time frame than four weeks.

Crosby is a smart player who plays the game with his head up. That’s a politically correct way of saying he’s not Marc Savard. And yet we all saw what happened to Sid twice in five day span in early January. It does not matter who you are; it is impossible to avoid every hit, especially when you play in the high traffic areas.

So yes the risks are great, as are the rewards. A healthy Crosby gives the Pens a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup. No Sid drastically reduces that opportunity. How do we evaluate this risk reward dilemma? By weighing as many considerations as possible. To wit:

1) The Pens chances to win the Stanley Cup – Exponentially better with Crosby in the line-up (unless you go with the theory that you can’t multiply by zero) but still considerably reduced without Evgeni Malkin. Throw in the likelihood that Sid will not be 100% either physically or hockey wise and those chances slip a bit further. Are those odds good enough to risk the franchise’s future?

2) The Future of the Program – The Penguins are built around Crosby both structurally and financially. Crosby takes up $8.7 Million of cap room through 2014. The worst case scenario is no Crosby. The second worst case is Crosby being in an out of the line-up at partial effectiveness a la Lemieux from 2001-02 through his final retirement. That would leave the Pens in a state of helpless hockey limbo.

3) The Championship Window – Any lost opportunity within an obvious championship window is profoundly disappointing. That disappointment is mitigated by the fact the Pens have locked in their young core for at least two more years; and that core is less than two years removed from lifting the cup.

4) The Environment – We all know the playoffs are considerably more physical than the regular season. You lose the Trevor Gillies thug factor but you gain the…”everyone finishes every check factor.” Net result, chances of injury increase. And that’s before we even consider…

5) The Garage League – The NHL has done little or nothing to dissuade head shots this year. They talk tough and then act with stunning impotence. Yes players fear suspensions more in the playoffs but the sad reality is that the league has FAILED to create a climate where players fear the consequences of delivering a hit to the head.

In the end, my contention is it’s not worth the risk. I might feel different if Malkin were not hurt. I might feel different if the team’s core was aging or they were about to be ravaged by free agency. I might feel different if the NHL made a genuine commitment to protecting its players rather than just spewing spineless rhetoric.

And before you tell me that the Pens medical staff has the best handle on the situation; remember this. On top of all the uncertainty I’ve already described, the Penguins let Crosby play four periods of hockey after taking the original hit from Steckel. For all the good things that go on at the new Igloo these days, this was nothing sure of negligence from top to bottom of the organization. The minute I saw Crosby scrape himself off the mush that was the winter classic ice, I suspected a concussion. Somehow his employer did not.

My emotional side wants Sid back in the line-up without question. My logical side knows that if he does play, I will cringe every time he goes to the corner to play a lose puck.

If you’re still conflicted, a bit of historical Penguin perspective can be quite valuable.

There are striking parallels between Crosby 2010-11 and Mario Lemieux 1989-90. Both players were dominating the league and carrying their team when significant injury struck. And while this current Penguin team is clearly superior in talent and depth; neither is or was a serious cup contender without their marquee star.

Remember how excited we were when Mario miraculously returned to save the Penguins’ hopes in the last game of the 1990 season? Remember how utterly devastated we were when the Pens lost in spite of that and were eliminated from playoff contention?

Given two decades of perspective we now clearly see what was impossible to know that night; losing that game was in reality the best case scenario. The Pens gave up a fleeting moment of happiness and a likely first round playoff defeat for the opportunity to draft Jaromir Jagr. In addition it eliminated the dilemma of whether Lemieux should try and play in the post season with his back in disrepair.

Moreover, Lemieux’s decision to comeback for that game ultimately delayed his inevitable back surgery and his return the following year. The Pens were quite fortunate that delay did not sabotage their 1991 cup run. In short, all emotions aside, the Pens should have shut Big 66 down the minute he hobbled off the ice at Madison Square Garden.

Sound familiar?

Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. My heart would love to see Sidney Crosby on the ice when the playoffs start. My head hopes he sits until next year.