Back from the Dead, Third Round Playoff Predictions

I used to accept as a given that when a playoff series reached three games to zero, it was over.

It’s not just because before last year; only three teams in North American major sports history had overcome such a deficit. It just seemed that most teams threw in the towel once they lost that third game. The mountain seemed too high to climb.

Of course the players and coaches on both sides would vigorously deny that. The team leading would channel memories of Lou Holtz, regaling us with tales of just how dangerous Navy was while losing 40 straight years to Notre Dame. The trailing team in contrast would launch in to a series of “Bull Durham” like clichés about how it’s not over until it’s over and they were going to take it one game at a time.

To the latter point I offer Alex Ovechkin’s half hearted promises of a Washington comeback from said deficit last week. Ovie’s blatant lack of inspiration or conviction in those comments seemed to relay the utter futility that I have long associated with teams in this situation.

So how is it that for the third time in two years, a team forced a game 7 after trailing 3 games to none? How is it that a team from each of those series has arrived at this year’s final four? And how is it that two teams this year have blown a 3 games to 0 lead and still managed to win game 7?

Not just any teams mind you; San Jose and Vancouver, two clubs with a history of imploding under playoff pressure.

Indeed, if there is anything I believed in as much as a series being over at 3 to 0 it was this; if a team somehow did come back to force game 7, they would absolutely win the series. It’s why I truly believed that Chicago would finish off the comeback and topple the Nucks and with the caveat I will explain below, that Detroit would take out San Jose.

So chalk up a second staunch personal conviction I can toss in the recycle bin.

Here’s that odd caveat regarding San Jose. I actually did think they could win last night. I freely admit however I would not have believed that if Vancouver had lost to Chicago. Seeing a Canuck’s team built around historic post season chokers somehow win that game 7 made me realize that anything is possible. For the record, anything includes Patrick Marleau finally getting his playoff wake up call in the third period of game 7. I’m still awaiting Jeremy Roenick’s omnipotent pontifications on that.

Give both the Nucks and Sharks full credit; neither gave up when they had every reason to.

I would argue that both Vancouver and San Jose created their own drama through a distinct lack of killer instinct. That’s not to take away from the efforts of Chicago and Detroit, both of whom showed championship metal in their comebacks. I just do not know how Vancouver can go up 3 to 0 in a series and then lose the next two games by a 12 to 2 combined score. I watched the last six games of that series and I can tell you that Vancouver flat out did not show up in games 4 and 5. How does a supposed Stanley Cup favorite do that?

The same goes for San Jose. As great a team as Detroit can be, there is no excuse for the Sharks blowing a 3 to 1 third period lead, AT HOME, in game 5. Then they compounded it by getting blown off the ice in a listless game 6 effort. The scoreboard does not show it thanks to a sterling effort from Antti Niemi but the Sharks were dominated in virtually every facet of that game.

None of this should be shocking considering the calamity that is the recent post season history of these franchises.

I wonder however if this will serve as a coming of age moment for either the Sharks or Nucks? Will this be the year one of these teams finally grows up and develops championship metal; or just a prelude to more disappointment? For my money, I think the Sharks may finally be ready for that critical championship growth spurt. I’m not so sure about the Nucks, especially given another blown elimination opportunity in game 5 at home against mediocre Nashville.

The problem with both teams is that there core stars regularly disappear after tax day. As Penguin fans, we draw tremendous pleasure from the annual playoff vanishing acts of Semin, Backstrom, and Green in our nation’s capital. Well they are in good company with Joe Thornton, Marleau, and Dany Heatley in San Jose and the Bobby Lu and the Freak Twins in Vancouver.

The Versus’ crew spent most of last night waxing poetic about the brilliance of Thornton. Maybe I’m missing something but that would be the supposed franchise player who has two goals this post season? Yes he’s working hard, playing defense and winning face offs. It seems to me the Sharks could save $5 Million per and pay Max Talbot for that. And Talbot historically outscores Jumbo Joe in the post season.

Amazingly Thornton’s offensive production, which does include 9 assists has put Heatley and Marleau to shame. I’m not going to pull a Roenick and try and analyze either player’s intestinal fortitude; I will just say that historically they don’t produce when it matters most.

The Sharks growth spurt to me is driven by two factors. First, the team has built tremendous depth offensively including players like Joe PAVELski, Ryane Clowe, and Devin Setoguchi. Second, the Sharks replaced another perennial playoff choker, goalie Evgeni Nabokov, with a top playoff performer in Antti Niemi.

I realize I’m walking the Fleury/Barrasso line in terms of my Niemi credibility but both Emily and I are taking great pride in his success. Niemi has spent the season establishing as an elite goaltender and more important, a goaltender who gets it done when it matters (since winning the cup last year apparently was not convincing to the enlightened media masses). He was at his best in game 6 and 7. Not only did he make the critical saves, but he gave his team a desperately needed sense of belief. That’s a belief the Sharks have clearly lacked in prior years.

As for Vancouver, the main reason they are skating in the conference finals is a fortuitous match-up with Nashville. Luongo still looks skittish and the Sedins have been lost in Ryan Kessler’s ever growing shadow (not too mention the overbearing, Joe Flacco like love fest from the entire hockey world). Watching a team with this much talent try and eek out 2 to 1 wins over the chug and plug Predators was as bad as…Washington’s so called defensive system.

In case I’m being too subtle here let me spell it out; I’m not exactly a believer in the Canucks. I look at their coming of age comeback and see through the cracks. A flawed Chicago team followed by mediocre Nashville. A team that gave up a short handed goal in the final two minutes of game 7 and nearly lost in overtime. A flopping goaltender who is only playing by the grace of Corey Snyder’s groin injury.

I am a believer in San Jose…Sharks in 5.


Boston (not Philly) versus Tampa (not Washington)

It’s been so long since either of these teams saved Penguin fans from further post season torture that I’m not sure I can even make a prediction.

The series could go either way but I like the Bruins. There is nothing specific I can quantify except perhaps Tim Thomas’ superbly brilliant post season. Historically I’ve been scared off by ensemble offensive casts as they have in Boston. This year’s Bruins however just have the look about them. It’s an intangible I know but to me it seems pretty real. They had their own coming of age after going the distance to blow a 3-0 lead least year.

Add Zdeno Chara’s most dominant post season to an experienced, physical and motivated group, and I think the B’s are too much for the Bolts. It also does not hurt my belief that Tampa is relying on Sean Bergenheim and Dominic Moore for offense and a goaltender who is AARP eligible, while Steven Stamkos is mostly invisible.

As much as I will miss the angry stares from the French Canadian Mike Tomlin (aka, Guy Boucher)…Boston in 7.



1st Round 6 and 2 (lost with Philly and Pittsburgh)


2nd Round – 2 and 2 (lost with Washington and Nashville)