Monday, June 7, 2010

Goaltending Wins Championships…Right?

“In life, as in hockey, you are only as good as your goaltender” (Adam Haberman…frequently).

I have two nightmares that pop into my brain from time to time. The first is that it’s the end of a semester in graduate school and I have not gone to glass or studied a lick. Finals are coming and I do not have the faintest clue about the course material. The second is that Michael Leighton is a starting goaltender in the Stanley Cup finals.

When I wake from the first nightmare, I feel an immediate and overwhelming sense of “it’s only a dream” relief. As to the second…apparently I still have not woken up.

There are few things in life I believe in more definitively than the importance of goaltending in hockey. I’ve said for years that it is one of the few absolutes in sports…you just can not win a Stanley Cup without great goaltending.

I’ve used this unwavering belief in my staunch defense of Marc-Andre Fleury from his persistent legion of moronic critics. Somehow, in their minds, Fleury managed to lead his team to back to back Stanley Cup finals while being the worst Penguin goaltender since Peter Skudra.

I’ve pointed out that teams do not win 30 playoff games in two years in spite of their goaltending. I’ve noted that I have decades of history on my side. That includes what I’ve frequently referred to as a quarter century case study on how goaltending can torpedo a franchise, commissioned by the Eastern Pennsylvania Orange and Black Goon Squad. In algebraic terms, goaltending is the constant in my hockey equation.

So if it’s not bad enough that the Penguins missed out on this year’s finals; here comes the Goon Squad to make it worse. I’ve been mocking them all year for somehow managing to deal down their goaltending from the immortal Martin Biron and Antero Nittymaki combination. For reference, that’s the same Biron who could not land a starting job anywhere in the NHL after leaving Philly and the same Nittymaki who can’t beat out Mike Smith in Tampa. That’s comparable to having a worse haircut than Scott Hartnell.

And yet the Goons somehow managed to do it. First they put their faith in Ray Emery who is as bad as Biron but less reliable. Then they trotted out Brian Boucher whose career reminds me of those fluke golfers that win the masters once and get a lifetime exemption to play into their 90s. And if all that was not enough, they turned their net over to the great Leighton. Yes, that’s the same Leighton who Carolina deemed inadequate as their third string goaltender. Apparently they were not overly impressed by his 103 NHL appearances since 2003-04.

So now I wake to the continuing nightmare; to a world where a team can get to the Stanley Cup finals while rotating third string goaltenders. Suddenly I don’t know what to make of things. It’s like the bizarro world on Seinfeld. Up is down, black is white, Feldman is Kramer. Everything I believed about life and sports is suddenly in turmoil.

Think about Fleury’s brilliant, game saving robbery of Lidstrom at the end of game 7 last year. Are we really ready to replace that picture in our minds…with Michael Leighton?

For the record, a person of non Chicago perspective might feel compelled to include Hawks goaltender Antti Niemi in the above complaint. I will not do so for two reasons. First, I would like to be able to sleep in my own bed in the near future and that’s unlikely to occur if I formally criticize Niemi in this blog. My wife is without question his biggest fan and to be quite clear, she was championing his play back in the dark days of the Huet in Chicago. If that seems like a conflict of interest to you than feel free to have the NHL revoke my press pass.

Second, it would be inaccurate. If you go back to his first start in October, a shutout in his native Finland, Niemi has been strong all season for the Hawks. Niemi is inexperienced but so was Cam Ward a few years back and we know how that ended. There is a big difference between inexperienced and having a decade long track record of mediocrity as is the case with Leighton and Brian Boucher.

If you fall back on the tired, lazy idea that the Blackhawks carry Niemi please contact the San Jose Sharks or Vancouver Canucks and ask why their supposedly superior goaltenders are golfing right now. Or call Stan Bowman and ask why Huet and his $6 Billion contract are glued to the end of the Hawks bench.

That being said, even I will admit that this is not exactly Roy and Brodeur matching up in the 2001 finals.

Which brings up the question, am I wrong? Have I been living a lie my entire life? Is goaltending not really that important? Can great teams just carry pedestrian goaltenders along for the ride (as the Fleury bashers would have us believe?). Will Michael Leighton be the end of my goaltender centric view of the universe?

The answer is emphatically no !

Here is a summary of the starting goaltenders who have won the Stanly Cup over the last 35 NHL seasons (from left to right):

Ken Dryden (4); Billy Smith (4); Grant Fuhr (4) Patrick Roy (4); Martin Brodeur (3); Bernie Parent (2);

Tom Barrasso (2); Mike Vernon (2); Chris Osgood (2); Ed Belfour (1); Dominik Hasek (1); Mike Richter (1); Nikolai Khabibulin (1) J.S. Giguere (1);

Marc-Andre Fleury (1) Cam Ward (1); Bill Ranford (1);

The first six goaltenders on that list are either in the hall of fame or sure fire first ballot inductees (Brodeur). These six gentlemen are responsible for 21 of those 35 cups (70%).

The next eight from Barrasso to Giguere have all produced elite numbers during their 10 plus year careers (even Osgood, much as it pains me to admit it). Hasek and Belfour are hall of fame gimmes and any of Barrasso, Richter, Vernon and Osgood could one day join them (for better or for worse on the last two). Regardless, this group adds 11 cups to the list.

The remaining three cups were won by two elite young goaltenders (Fleury and Ward) and a solid veteran goaltender (Ranford).

Think about that. Over the last 35 years the worst goaltender to win the Stanley Cup is Bill Ranford. And Ranford won 240 games in the NHL so let’s be clear he’s not Sebastian Caron.

It gets better. The 18 goaltenders above also lost in the Stanley Cup finals 12 times during that period. That means these elite goaltenders have taken 47 of the 70 slots in the finals over 35 years (just over 2/3rd of the total). In fact, if you go back to the start of the Islander dynasty in 1979-80, the only Leighton like goaltenders to even make the finals were…

Don Beaupre/Gilles Meloche Richard Brodeur, Jon Casey
Ray Emery Kelly Hurdey Arturs Irbe

I might even throw in the Hextall/Snow combo for Philly in 1997, only because Hextall was clearly past his goonish, cheap shot, stick swinging, cross checking prime by that point. Still, Hextall was once considered an elite goaltender back in the days when he was chasing Rob Brown around the rink (acknowledging this makes my stomach churn). He did win the Conn Smythe as the losing goalie against Edmonton in 1987.

Truth be told, in a fascinating bit of coincidental irony, the only goaltender on the list above who truly compares with Leighton is Emery; the guy Philly started the season with. You could also argue that Casey was closer to being a back-up than a starter as well (although he was fairly decent until Mario Lemieux single handedly destroyed his career). The others were all solid NHL goaltenders, just not superstars.

So take a deep breath folks and relax. Leighton does not represent a sign of the apocalypse nor a colossAL shifting of the sports universe. He is what sports experts refer to as, a fluke. We all remember that Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson won Super Bowls. Let’s not forget that Rex Grossman and David Woodley lost Super Bowls. That’s probably closer to what we are dealing with here.

Keep in mind that Leighton and Boucher have split the work. Keep in mind that they played three low scoring teams in NJ, Boston, and Montreal in the first three rounds. Now that they are facing a team with some serious firepower, they’ve allowed 21 goals in 5 games and Leighton has been hooked twice. I don’t think Roy, Brodeur or Hasek are losing sleep over their place in history.

Since the end of game 4, I’ve been wresting with the possibilities of both a Stanley Cup parade on Broad Street and the end to my cult like beliefs regarding goaltending. I’ll rely on the Blackhaws to solve issue number one, hopefully on Wednesday night.

As for issue number 2, regardless of how things turn out I’ll sleep well knowing I have 35 years of precedents to back my beliefs. One way or another my nightmare will end with my convictions undaunted that in life as in hockey you really are only as good as your goaltender.

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