Uncertainty Hangs over Steelers’ Season

Over the past two decades, I’ve developed quite a comfort factor with the Steelers. More often than not, I go in to the season believing they have a pretty good chance to be playing in mid January. Rest assured, this is not the blissfully blind optimism my fellow Chicagoans feel for the Cubs or the delusional belief of Pirate fans. This is the real deal, based on an 18 year run of success.

So like most of the Steeler Nation, I find myself dealing with an unfamiliar emotion on the eve of the 2010 season…uncertainty. I honestly can’t remember this level of uncertainty since the blessedly short lived Tommy Maddox era. For the first time in a long time, the Steelers have a team that could just as easily compete for the Superbowl or a high draft choice.

My gut instinct, not to mention three decades of watching the NFL, tells me that this is a huge red flag. If you think there is a legitimate chance your team could win only 5 games, then they probably are not a Super Bowl team regardless.

If I were truly an impartial observer of the Steelers, I would probably be leaning towards a rough year for the Steeler Nation. Of course I’m about as impartial as Rush Limbaugh or Hockey Night in Canada; which explains why I’m about to fork over another large sum of money to DirecTV to watch Byron Dixonbatch.

Even taking my less than subtle bias out of the equation, I remind everyone of what happened two years ago in Philly. I sat amongst the world’s most pleasant human beings at the Linc and watched the Eagles defense literally trample the Steelers’ offensive line. I walked away that day thoroughly convinced that the Steelers were in no way, shape or form a Super Bowl contender. Given what happened four months later, I think writing off the black and gold before the equinox is a bad idea.

Anyway, back to the uncertainty, the most obvious of which is behind center.

It’s hard to believe this given the two decade quarterback drought we endured pre Big Ben but we’ve become truly spoiled as fans. We are quite comfortable living the life of elite quarterback leisure (at least between September and February). Now we have to go back to living with the tired, the poor, and the huddled masses of Buffalo and Tampa.

The Steelers have to figure out a way to win at least 2 games with either or both of Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch, at least now that Byron Leftwich has hobbled into the background. Anything less than that and the season could spiral out of control. I just don’t see Ben coming back from his 4 week, unpaid vacation and turning around an 0-4 team.

That’s uncertainty number 1. Well more like 1, 1a, 1b, and 1c through 1q(u). We do not know how good Dixon is. We don’t know if Tomlin is making the right decision. I’m not sure he does either. Is Dixon the next Donovan McNabb or the next Tavaris Jackson? Who knows.

If the Steelers are going to win without Ben, they need to go back to their roots; back to the days when they won in spite of the guy behind center. As much as this might cause a painful, irritating rash, coach Tomlin needs to cue up some old Kordell Stewart game film circa 2001. That was the year that Mike Mularkey earned coach of the millennium honors for finishing one game short of the Superbowl with Slash at QB; two years after the NFL had zeroed in on his multitude of weaknesses.

That Steeler coaching staff did a brilliant job crafting a game plan around a mediocre but extremely athletic quarterback. First, they built the passing game around what Stewart could do while scrapping what he could not (which sadly was a lot). They did not give him the whole playbook. Instead, they used a Paterno like strategy of sticking with five or so passes that he could throw effectively. Are you listening Bruce Arians? Most important, they did not hold Slash in the pocket. He had free reign to take off running when necessary (until 2002 when he decided to be a pocket passer).

It worked until the AFC Championship game when Bill Bellicheat and the Pats game planned against exactly those five passes. Still, it did work for 17 games. Tomlin only needs it for 4 weeks.

Of course the Kordell game plan involves more than just limiting the QB. It also involves running the ball and dominant defense. Which brings more uncertainty in to play.

There are serious questions about the offensive line. That’s not new as I noted above but now Big Ben is not around to bail them out. I question how that offensive line will deal with eight men in the box focused entirely on stopping the run, or how Rashard Mendenhall will deal with being the focus of opposing defenses. My guess is Dixon’s mobility was an overriding factor, given how poor this o-line can be at protecting the passer. That’s without even considering that Batch probably could not make it through three quarters of a flag football game without breaking his collarbone

Even worse, the Steelers go in to 2010 with serious questions on the defensive side of the ball. We have to go back to 2002 to find the last time that was the case.

We all hope that getting Troy and Aaron Smith back will return the defense to elite status. There is no doubt their absences were profoundly felt last year. That being said I can’t get past this nagging feeling there was more to it than that. I guess that happens when you get shredded by the likes of Bruce Gradkowski, Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen in the 4th quarter.

The Dick Lebeau defense is built around the front seven and the front seven is getting old fast.
I know the defensive backs got slaughtered last year but I really don’t see them as the issue. When the Steelers generate pressure on the quarterback, those mediocre (we can only hope) cornerbacks suddenly look a lot better. When they do not, we see William Gay getting torched with impunity.

What bothered me last year was not just the results. It was the fact that the defense so clearly tired in the 4th quarter of games and then the 4th quarter of the season. That’s the first sign of aging players and/or a shortage of depth. Sadly, the second sign is guys breaking down (see Parker, Willie F.). The harsh reality here is that Hampton, Smith, Keisel, Farrior, and Foote all have that potential at any moment.

So if we truly believe the Steelers need to play Steeler football its worth asking this question; is the defense really good enough?

Honestly, I don’t know and neither does anybody else. Two years ago they had one of the most dominant defenses in NFL history. Last year it was a bust. Even if the unit is better this year; are they better enough to carry Dixonbatch? Which brings us back to that term “uncertainty” that I’ve splashed throughout this column. And ultimately back to our quarterback saga.

I admit, I was favoring Batch as the best of three mediocre options. If there was no Ben Roethlisberger, I would fully endorse Dixon as the man since long-term development would be the key issue. Alas, assuming Ben put’s to rest his legal problems, he’s the man here for at least another half dozen years. That means this is all about who is the best four game option. My admittedly skittish belief is that is Uncle Charlie.

Dixon may be brilliant but he may also be brilliantly bad. We saw that against Denver. Maybe he learned from that performance or maybe that’s just who he is. We will not know until we see him in games that count. That being said, I acknowledge the obvious. The coaches see these guys every day, I’ve seen them in three meaningless games. So I’ll refrain from bashing the decision until at least 2:30 eastern time this Sunday.

Which brings us back to my comments about the Kordell Stewart game plans above. One of the coaching staff’s most disappointing moments last year, amidst a plethora to choose from, was the Dixon game plan against Baltimore. It triggered painful Dave Wannstedt flashes watching Mendenhall run off tackle 30 times while Dixon was forcibly constrained to the pocket. The coaches played scared and not to lose. Ask Wanny what happens when you do that.

Tomlin and Arians have taken a fair amount of criticism this summer but now is their opportunity to step up. It’s a lot easier to coach an offense with a future hall of famer calling signals. Like Cowher and Mularkey in 2001, they have to take it to another level. Game plan to Dixon’s unique strengths and away from his weaknesses. Don’t give him the whole playbook because at this point he can not handle the whole playbook. Don’t try and make Dixon in to Big Ben or worse yet, Leftwich. Work with what he does well, even if its not traditional NFL stuff.

To that end, Tomlin should channel his inner Forest Gump and scream…”Run Dennis, Run !!!” whenever Dixon is in trouble. Taking is one step further, in the words of Robin Wright Penn, “if you get in trouble, don’t be brave (or throw into double coverage). You just run. You hear me, you just run !” Here’s hoping Tomlin is movie buff.

Honestly, I never thought I would be preaching the benefits of a Kordell Stewart offense. Of course I never thought Big Ben would get grounded for a month by the NFL. I also never thought Bruce Gradkowski would carve up the Black and gold in the two minute drill at Hines Field. I guess that’s what a little uncertainty will do to a guy.