Sidney Crosby’s Much Needed Wake Up Call

Sidney Crosby very well MIGHT be injured.

He might just as well not be.

Crosby might just be in a slump; though admittedly the worst of his professional career.  That slump, combined with the often overwhelming defensive attention he receives (with questionable legality), might simply be wearing him down mentally.

It can happen to the best of players.  I saw it first hand with Jonathan Toews last year.  He was basically a non-factor offensively for the first 9 games of the playoffs.  Things got so bad that he took three penalties, mostly undisciplined and unnecessary, in game 4 in Detroit.  He did this in what appeared to be a near must win game for the Hawks.  That’s hardly what you would expect from one of the great leaders in hockey.

Things got so bad that Brent Seabrook had to talk to Toews on the ice and blast him behind the scenes to wake him up.  Such news was shocking in Chicago where Captain Serious is revered for his devotion to his craft.  Guess what, he’s also human.

As is Sidney Crosby; no matter how much Pierre McGuire and the folks at TSN believe otherwise.

I’ve been watching sports for nearly 35 years and I’ve rarely seen anything to compete with the over-the-top Crosby love fest that regularly emanates from the North American (primarily Canadian) media.  I’m a die-hard Penguin fan and it nearly sickens me.  It’s a big driver of the anti-Crosby sentiment that exists in so many other cities, where fans are simply tired of the Crosby over-exposure.  It’s the same reason so many sports fans hate Notre Dame.

I thought it reached its apex in game 2 against Columbus when Pierre gave us 20 seconds on the creative genius of Sidney Crosby; after a routine pass set-up a 65 foot slap shot goal from Matt Niskanen.  Turns out I was wrong.  The Crosby love fest hit its apex when TSN started running Zapruder film on Crosby and doing forensic analysis of his ground speed to try and prove an injury.  I read an article linked to Puck Daddy where the writer was literally analyzing shift by shift video of Crosby late in the season to discover where an injury MIGHT have occurred.

In the meantime, the most under-appreciated superstar on the planet actually was injured and it was never mentioned. 

Does anybody even remember that Evgeni Malkin broke his foot with three weeks left in the regular season?  Did anybody even bother to ask if Malkin was 100% healthy when the playoffs started?  Is it possible, just possible, that Malkin’s early struggles were a combination of rust from a three week layoff and perhaps playing at less than 100%?

Not that I would expect it to be mentioned.  I mean Malkin had a hat trick against Columbus and Pierre barely mentioned his name on any of the goals.  Instead he credited Crosby on Malkin’s first goal and Niskanen on his second.  Heaven forbid anybody outside of Pittsburgh or Magnitogorsk acknowledges anything positive about 71.

Look, it’s very possible Crosby is hurt.  I personally think he’s looked off since the Olympics.  That includes the actual games by the way as Crosby was relatively mediocre by his standards in Sochi.  If Crosby was injured at any time between Slovenia and Columbus however, the Penguins had ample opportunity to rest him given their huge division lead.  That they chose to do so only in spots (two individual games), calls that in to question in my mind.

Moreover, if he was hurt, did Crosby miraculously get healthy last night.  Because let’s be honest, in spite of a zero in the box score, that was far and away his most inspired performance in months. 

None of us have access to the Penguin locker room.  So we rely on the Pittsburgh media to give us that behind the scenes view.  Last week Joe Starkey wrote in the Tribune Review that Crosby looked joyless most of the second half.  He compared his demeanor on a daily basis to one who just had a root canal.  That’s hardly an encouraging portrayal of the face of the franchise. 

We also know that veteran leaders such as Orpik, Scuderi, and Adams, were notably boisterous down the stretch about the lack or passion or urgency coming from the squad.  I cannot help but wonder if some of that was pointed directly at 87.  Sid has many strengths as a player but accepting criticism in his own house has never been one of them.  Just ask Marc Recchi.

It was all disconcerting stuff to be sure; worrisome enough that I questioned whether Dan Bylsma had lost the locker room and should be fired with two weeks left in the season.  That’s a desperation solution at face value; being proposed by someone who generally detests the tiresome, catch-all, fire the coach mentality that pervades professional sports.

Let’s be honest, the Pens are not a Stanley Cup favorite this year.  They might be no better than the 6^th best team still playing (though fortunate to be matched against likely the 8^th best).  That said, whatever opportunity they have to make a deep run or to miraculously lift Lord Stanley’s cup has a stated prerequisite; Crosby must return to the top of his game.

On Sunday night, he showed definitive signs of that happening for the first time this post season. 

Not surprisingly, the Pens followed his lead.  Hockey has this odd follow the captain culture that does not seem to exist in any other sport.  Crosby’s inspired effort seemed to drive his entire team.  The Penguins played their most complete game of the playoffs.  It was not just the performance but the intensity level, physicality, and attention to detail for 60 minutes.  It was exactly the kind of effort needed to turn this club in the right direction.

I would add this, it was not quite the anomaly that some are suggesting.  The Pens were similarly dominant in game 5 against Columbus when they fired 51 shots in regulation and controlled play start to finish.  In my opinion they’ve played two of their most complete playoff games since the 09 cup run in their last four outings.  Throw in a dominant effort for the first 50 minutes of game 6 (partially mitigated by an ugly last 10), and this Penguin team appears to be trending the right direction.

There are many reasons for this, with health being at the top of the list.  Last night was arguably the first time this season the Pens had their true top 12 forwards in the line-up.  The simple fact that Tanner Glass was a healthy scratch was a key positive.  There was also a season best performance from the team’s blue liners and another strong effort from Marc-Andre Fleury.  Let’s face it; we were all justifiably concerned about Fleury after his game 4 meltdown.  Instead he’s lifted his game to something approximating his 08 and 09 post season levels.

In the short-term, these were critical drivers of last night’s victory.  In the long-term, the Crosby revival may be remembered as the story of the night.  Toews recovered his game last year and lead Chicago to a championship.  Here’s hoping Crosby follows suit.   

Penguin Playoff Hopes Ride on Fleury’s Redemption

Last May, about the time the Penguins’ season was going up in flames in Boston, I was absolutely convinced that Marc-Andre Fleury was finished in the Burgh.

It was not just about a goaltender having a bad playoff series or his team failing to meet justifiably lofty goals.  Both of those results could be explained in a vacuum.  This was about a goaltender enduring his second consecutive miserable first round performance for a franchise with Stanley Cup or bust expectations.  The fact that Tomas Vokoun rescued the Pens, at least long enough for his teammates to flat line against Boston only exacerbated the issue.

There is no sugar coating the obvious, Fleury was abysmal, just as he was a year earlier against Philly.  Keep in mind this evaluation is coming from a well-known Fleury defender.  His critics were far less accommodating of his performance.

There were some mildly passable excuses for MAF’s performance against the Goons in 2012.  Dan Bylsma clearly and obviously overplayed him that season (nothing like 4 starts in 6 nights in December) and the Pens had a catastrophic, team wide defensive meltdown in that series.  I still say the team collapsed in front of Fleury before he imploded, for whatever that is worth.

There was however no justification for last year's performance against the Islanders.  Fleury was well rested and the team in front of him was at least competent defensively.  He was coming off a brilliant regular season and even opened the playoffs with a shutout.  And then after just one shaky goal early in game 2 everything came unglued.  What followed was a mortifying parade of leaky goals, several of which he inexplicably kicked in to his own net.

By the end of game four, Bylsma had no choice but to switch goaltenders.  And when Fleury was given a second chance of sorts against Boston, he looked completely lost.  Given that precipitous fall, the overriding cup or bust pressure on the Pens, and the Fleury’s excessive salary cap figure I was almost positive he would be tending goal in Edmonton or Miami this season. 

Amazingly that did not happen. 

I’m not sure if it was true faith or the lack of a readily available alternative but the Pens stuck with Fleury.  And they were rewarded with what was, in my opinion, his second best season in the Burgh (behind only the 2010-11 year).  At face value he was brilliant, often carrying a team that was decimated by injuries and lacking any semblance of 3^rd and 4^th line depth.  A good argument could be made for him sharing the team MVP award with Sidney Crosby.  His brilliance this season stoodon its own, without consideration of the extenuating circumstances.

It was even more brilliant when you consider where he was a year ago and the pressure he was under this season as a result.  I still recall national media sites running stories and pasting up video of Fleury allowing a soft goal…IN A TRAINING CAMP SCRIMAGE.

Fleury often gets criticized for being mentally soft.  Admittedly that assessment is hard to dispute when he follows two straight brilliant regular seasons with apocalyptic post season meltdowns.  When you consider how low he was at the end of last season, it’s nothing short of miraculous that he put it back together.  Many athletes could not recover from such a fall, as least now without a change of scenery.  Fleury did so, right under the spotlight of his critics. 

It takes incredible strength of character to pull that off.  Fleury should be commended for how much of that he showed this season.

Alas the harsh reality is that as of this morning, none of it matters. 

It’s a fact of hockey life that goaltenders are always under pressure in the playoffs.  The pressure on Fleury however is astronomical.  He has literally reached a crossroads in his career; one where any meaningful evaluation of his performance beings in mid-April.  There is virtually nothing he can do in the regular season to dissuade his critics; most of whom accept that strong regular season play from him is a given.  It’s literally ALL about the post season for Marc-Andre Fleury.  

I’ve been watching sports for nearly 35 years and I honestly cannot remember another athlete who was under this type of post season pressure.  Fleury’s not alone under the microscope of course; at the very minimum he’s got a time share with Dan Bylsma, but the spotlight shines brightest on the Penguin net-minder.  I would be shocked if any reputable playoff preview does not lament the potential for a Fleury meltdown to take down the Pens.

Further compounding the issue is that this year’s Penguin team has some fairly obvious red flags.  Excepting Brandon Sutter, the 3^rd and 4^th lines are substandard for a championship contender.  They’ve struggled to find a winger to replace Pascal Dupuis.  And the team was far too dependent on special teams’ play and shootout victories for its regular season success.  For the first time since 87 and 71 missed the playoffs in 2011, the Penguins are justifiably not a Stanley Cup favorite.

For a team with such a make-up to have a deep run, or dare I suggest live up to the Stanley Cup aspirations of its fan base, Fleury must be nothing short of brilliant from start to finish.  I’m talking Tim Thomas 2011 or Jonathan Quick 2012 style brilliant.  Or better yet, Fleury 2008 brilliant.

Is the point clear yet?

To ratchet up the pressure a tad higher, Fleury is likely playing for his future in the Burgh.  The team is already excessively top heavy against the salary cap; a situation which further deteriorates next year when new contracts for Letang and Malkin kick in.  There is simply no room for a $5 Million per year goaltender if he cannot raise his game when it matters most.  And unlike last year, there is no safety net behind him.  It seems highly unlikely the Pens will turn to Vokoun (after a season of inactivity) or Jeff Zatkoff should MAF flounder again.  Simply put, the Penguins will sink or swim with #29.

For what it’s worth, I genuinely hope Fleury steps-up.  This goes beyond being a Penguin fan and understanding that Fleury’s ‘A’ game is a prerequisite for post season success.  The Flower by all accounts is one of the truly good guys in professional sports.  He seems to genuinely love playing the game.  And he’s had too much success in his career to be branded solely on his recent post season failures.  As a reminder, that success includes 289 regular season victories, two trips to the Stanley Cup finals, and one very memorable championship. He’s absolutely capable of being great when it matters most.

Nothing would make me happier than to see Fleury carry the Pens this post season. It would be a fabulous and deserved redemption story; one that seemed incomprehensible 10 months ago.  If that does not happen my prediction from last May likely comes to pass; a year later than expected.

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY PENGUIN…BLESSED BE THE PENGUIN, FOR IT IS GOOD.

Dan Bylsma's Last Shot

The Stanley Cup finals started last night with a truly sensational game between Chicago and Boston.  Recency bias and hyperbole make for a bad combination so I’ll resist the urge quantify its greatness.  Suffice to say it was the kind of game that drives many of us to believe that there is nothing better in sports than post season hockey.  For me it had everything; everything except the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That is ironic because yesterday marked the 4 year anniversary of arguably the greatest game in Penguins’ history.  Their gut wrenching game 7 victory in Detroit was perhaps the seminal moment for a franchise that has enjoyed far greater success than it’s credited.

In the aftermath of their elusive third championship the club’s future potential seemed boundless.  A once in a generation assemblage of young stars had matured to full potential, winning a Stanley Cup well before their time.  The general manager was locking in those stars on manageable long-term contracts.  And for the first time in their history, they seemed to have the perfect head coach to steer the ship.  There was every reason to believe that cup celebrations would be the norm for this group.

And yet as the finals kicked off last night the only Penguin discussion we were contemplating was Ray Shero’s emphatic endorsement of Dan Byslma as his coach for next season.  It’s a worthwhile debate, especially since I considered Disco Dan’s continued employment an even money proposition at best when I awoke on Wednesday.

Taken in a vacuum, one can just as easily conclude that Bylsma is or is not responsible for the Pens crash and burn performance against Boston.  His supporters state that he cannot be blamed for the sudden and complete disappearance of the team’s offensive stars.  His detractors state that he must be held accountable for the club’s lackluster play and lack of composure in the first two games of the series; and for getting swept with perhaps the most talented roster in the NHL.  Both arguments are accurate to a point.

I made it clear on Monday that my biggest issue with Bylsma was consistent lack of discipline shown by his team over the entire playoff run.  It manifested last year against Philly. And it manifested on several occasions before the conference finals; most notably with the inexcusable short-handed goal the Pens allowed to Ottawa in the waning seconds of game 3.  But it was never more brutally obvious than in the first two games against the Bruins. 

The Penguins ardently refused to make the smart simple plays necessary to succeed this time of year.  As noted in Monday’s blog, I’ve watched Chicago’s defensemen repeatedly defuse pressure in their own zone with simple bank passes of the boards.  In contrast the Penguins have Kris Letang, the Brett Favre of NHL defensemen, constantly trying to stickhandle through pressure or worse yet, throw blind backhand passes up the middle of the ice.   

At any given moment, the players are responsible for not executing properly.  When the same issue continues unabated for two years it falls primarily on the coach.

Given that, Bylsma should not be evaluated in the vacuum of one series; rather by his overall body of work.  And that is an eminently complex affair, as Bylsma’s track record is emminently complex. 

If it were simply the juxtaposition of regular season success against playoff disappointment it would be an easy call.  It’s not.  Not when the same coach who oversaw four consecutive post season flame outs also lead one of the great championship runs in NHL history.  Not when this year’s loss, as disappointing as it was, occurred in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This situation best parallels Bill Cowher and the Steelers, circa January 2005.  The franchise was at a crossroads after Cowher’s 15-1 team was blown out of Heinz Field by New England in the AFC Championship game.  It marked the 4^th time in 14 years that Cowher’s team lost an AFC title game at home.  And it continued a confounding trend of regular season dominance followed by playoff collapse.  At that time there was fairly compelling, albeit circumstantial evidence that Cowher simply could not lead the Steelers to a championship.

The Steelers stuck it out with Cowher in 2005 and he ultimately delivered.  In so doing they established their franchise as a model of organizational stability.   That is in stark contrast to the Penguins who for most of their history have treated coaches as interchangeable parts.

So I salute the Penguins for once embracing stability over chaos.  I salute them for finally accepting the possibility that the players should be held accountable as much if not more so than the coach.  This is very much a new concept at the New Energy Barn and would seem to indicate a maturation of the organization.  It’s also a testament to the coaching street cred Bylsma earned though winning that championship in 2009.         

I do wonder however if the Penguins are standing not so much behind Bylsma as they are Sidney Crosby (and to a lesser degree Evgeni Malkin).  This is an organization with a track record of terrible coaching decisions made solely to appease their superstars.  How else do you justify firing Scotty Bowman for Eddie Johnston or in any way, shape, or form hiring Ivan Hlinka?  Given that history, and Mario Lemieux’s current ownership percentage, it’s not beyond consideration that Bylsma’s greatest coaching asset is that he keeps Sid the Kid happy.

I’m not saying definitely that is the case, but I cannot rule it out, especially when Bylsma’s extension precedes Malkin’s by just 24 hours.  We learned from the Johnston and Hlinka debacles that hiring coaches solely to placate superstars is a recipe for post season disappointment.  It’s even greater a concern when you factor in that Crosby, as much as anybody in the organization need to step up his post season performance going forward.  That is not going to happen if the head coach is in his pocket.

Regardless, the decision is made and Bylsma is staying, at least for one more year.  I am neither endorsing nor disputing it for all the reasons mentioned above.  I’m not yet convinced that Bylsma is the problem or the solution to this team’s ills.  That said, results speak for themselves and Bylsma’s window is clearly inching towards closure.

I will say this.  The Penguins cannot trot out the same coach, same system, and same players that have endured four consecutive playoff failures.  Most coaches would not survive such a run; especially when the last two were catastrophic in nature.  The team has refused to embrace the most critical components of playoff hockey success in spite of giving continual lip service to doing just that.  This means either that Bylsma is failing to deliver the message or the players are failing to receive it.  By hitching his wagon to the head coach, Shero is essentially stating the latter.

This means Shero absolutely must make personnel changes in the offseason.  He must deploy a better and more committed group of defensive players around 87 and 71.  He must find players who will embrace the need for structured and disciplined hockey, even when playing with superior offensive talent.  And he probably needs to accept that it is financially untenable to keep Letang or Marc-Andre Fleury on the roster at this point.

Even assuming such changes, Bylsma still needs to get the message through to his star players.  The Blackhawks have proved throughout the playoffs that a team with high end talent can be successful in the post season by playing the right way.  Doing it against Boston last night further crystalized the point.  Bylsma has been given one last shot to get that message across.  If he fails, it will likely be his last.

The End of the Line for Marc-Andre Fleury

Over the years I’ve been a passionate supporter, and defender of Marc-Andre Fleury.

That has not always been easy given the legion of Fleury critics amongst both Penguin fans and the local and national media.  There were many who chose to blame Fleury for every Penguin ill while downplaying or even ignoring his contributions to their success.  I never understood it; especially when you combined Fleury’s track record of victories with his eminently likeable personality.

So let me start off by acknowledging what should be but is not assumed to be obvious; Marc-Andre Fleury was a critical component to the Penguins success over the past seven years.  More to the point, he was a critical component of back-to-back Stanley Cup finals runs and the franchise’s elusive 3^rd championship in 2009.  His game 7 saves on future hall of famers Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Lidstrom are rightfully considered the stuff of legend.

He was part of the foundation; a core superstar.  There was every reason to believe he would mind the nets in the Burgh for another decade.  And as we sit here today; I see it as unlikely he will be a Penguin next month.

Simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury is playing himself right out of Pittsburgh.

Another concession to the obvious; goaltending is fairly low on the list of reasons the Penguins were man handled by Boston in game 2.  Before we get to Fleury or Tomas Vokoun, a good hard look needs to be taken at Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and just about every other front line player on the roster.  The head coach and general manager are hardly above scrutiny either.

That does not change the fact that the Marc-Andre Fleury we once knew seems long gone, at least when the season becomes best 4 out of 7.  What remains is a goaltender with zero post season confidence, one that seems incapable of making even the most basic saves on a consistent basis.  It’s a stunning and perhaps unprecedented fall for an elite Pittsburgh athlete in my lifetime.

Fleury’s issues are not about physical ability and I think we all know it.  There are few goaltenders in hockey as athletically gifted as MAF; a point he continually demonstrates with superior regular season play.  Fleury’s critics like to point out the overall talent on the Penguins or his comparatively pedestrian statistics (excluding wins of course).  In so doing, they conveinently overlook the Penguins often lackadaisical approach to defense.  Does anybody truly believe that Brian Elliott would post a 1.95 goals against average playing for this team?

No, Fleury’s current post season issues are unequivocally between the ears.  His confidence seems to come undone after a bad goal or two and once it does his entire game breaks down. I’m not talking about struggling to control rebounds or giving up the occasional soft goal.  I’m talking about a goaltender that seems to lose even the most basic constructs of his position in the post season.  When you juxtapose that against his regular season play and early career playoff success, it’s impossible to come to any other conclusion.

The irony is that this is the exact criticism Fleury faced during the early part of his career; even though it was totally unfounded by the results on the ice.  I wrote an impassioned defense of Fleury after he lead the Penguins to the 2009 Cup pointing out that but for one bit of bad luck at the World Junior Championships, there was nothing in his actual resume that substantiated his reputation as a big game flake.  Fleury’s performance from 2006-07 through that 7^th game in Detroit was exemplary; especially given the team’s aforementioned aversion to strong defensive hockey.

You could make a convincing argument that Fleury’s post season play was trending downward in 2010 and 2011; although I maintain he played better in the hopeless Tampa series than he gets credit for.  In both the Montreal and Tampa series there was at least a debatable premise regarding Fleury’s level of culpability.  You could argue accurately that he was not the reason the Pens lost either series; but just as accurately that he did not consistently raise his level to be the difference maker.   I would distill it down to this; he was part of the problem in those losses but by no means the root of it.  

The issue the last two years is that the quality of his post season work is no longer debatable.  He’s gone from trending downward to a complete train wreck.  His play has become indefensible; in spite of meager efforts from his coach and teammates to do just that.  Keep in mind this critique is coming from an unabashed Fleury fan; one who was often branded an apologist in my persistent battles with his critics.

To be fair, the Penguins played HISTORICALLY bad defense in front of Fleury in last year’s loss to Philly.  They broke down first and he follow suit with a meltdown of his own.  This year he collapsed of his own volition, even if the team’s defensive work against the Islanders was less than inspired.  Vokoun’s strong performance in relief made that abundantly clear. 

My opinions about Vokoun’s abilities are also a matter of public record on this blog.  I’ve never thought him better than a second tier starter, if that.  Fleury at his best is the superior goaltender.  So it should not be taken lightly when I state that for better or for worse, Vokoun should be the only option the Penguins consider in goal the remainder of the post season, however long that should be. 

That is exactly how I expect this to play out. 

Dan Bylsma is smart enough not to bury a popular and accomplished veteran in the media and thus tends to downplays Fleury’s struggles at every turn.  In reality, I believe he’s lost all confidence in MAF, an issue no doubt compounded by concerns about his own jobs security.  No matter Bylsma’s public disposition on the topic or the journalistic meanderings of Puck Daddy and others, I cannot fathom that Fleury will start another game; barring injury to Vokoun.  The hope is that the team rediscovers its form and that Vokoun for lack of a better term can “Osgood” them to a championship.

I truly believe that last night was Fleury’s last shot.   In a game where the situation was already bleak he was given one last opportunity to resuscitate his game. The hope was that Fleury would rediscover his 2008/2009 post season form; or for that matter his 2013 regular season form, either of which is a better option than Vokoun.  Instead Fleury emphatically reaffirmed Bylsma’s decision to take away his net with another very shaky effort.

In the bigger picture, Fleury’s time in the Burgh is likely at its end.  The team as currently constructed is in the heart of their championship window.  They cannot support a goaltender who in back-to back years has demonstrated a profound inability to perform in the post season; let alone one who takes $5 Million annually off their salary cap.  The issue is magnified against the specter of another disappointing post season finish and the team’s imposing future contact obligations.  Kudos to Ray Shero for having the foresight to hedge his bets this season with Vokoun but realistically, he’s not the long-term answer either.

Fleury will land on his skates; he’s too talented not too.  And a new, lower pressure environment might be exactly what he needs to rebuild his fragile confidence.   I hope it happens for him, I just do not see it happening in the Burgh.

Free Ride is Over for Fleury

At his best, Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the top goaltenders in the National Hockey League.

And like most elite goaltenders, Fleury often suffers at the expense of unreasonable fan expectations.  Which is a politically correct way of saying he bears the brunt of the blame whenever the red light goes on, deserved or not.

That’s the life of an NHL goaltender; especially one who plays for a talented team that can be charitably described as “lapse” times defensively from time to time.  Tom Barrasso lived in comparable fashion during his best years in the Burgh, long before he became a local media pariah.  It's fair to say that life as a Penguin goaltender is far more challenging than it is for say, Brian Elliott in St’ Louis.

Perhaps it truly is a matter of expectations.  We have seen that Fleury at his best can be as good as any goaltender in the game.  So to whatever extent he’s not at that level it’s considered a letdown.  That may very well be the case but I struggle to believe that Henrik Lundqvist faces the same level of vitriol as Fleury after a bad performance.

More often than not I think Fleury is an easy scapegoat.  Most fans remember Michael Grabner’s shot going under Fleury’s arm; not the horrendous giveaway by Deryk Engelland that precipitated a 100 foot breakaway. 

So with that preamble in the bank, I will now contradict pretty much everything I’ve stated above.  As great as Fleury is and can be, as great as he was during back to back Stanley Cup finals’ runs, he is officially on notice.  He has to be better, especially in the post season.  And if he is not, he will not play.  The Penguins made that crystal clear by bringing in Tomas Vokoun as their second goaltender.

Ray Shero could have signed any number of back-ups during the offseason.  He could have brought in a reliable second guy like Chris Mason or Al Montoya.  Instead he chose a goaltender with a decade long track record as a 60+ game starter.  That was not an accident or coincidence, it was a message.  The goaltending paradigm in the Burgh has changed.

Simply put, the days where Marc-Andre Fleury can expect to start 4 of 5 games on reputation alone are over.  The Pens have made it clear that if he’s not the best goaltender, he sits.  I truly believe Fleury must outplay Vokoun to keep his job, for better or for worse.

The issue is no longer assessing Fleury’s culpability in losses.  It’s now about whether Fleury can be the difference maker in Penguin wins.  Good is no longer good enough.  Fleury has to be great, and consistently so.

That’s his pedigree and his pay grade.  When you have a $5 Million per year goaltender and a shaky defense, the expectations are clear.  Fleury needs to return to his 2009 and 2010 post season form.  He cannot be a caretaker net minder on this team; he has to be the Jonathan Quick or Tim Thomas style difference maker he is fully capable of being.

There is no getting around the fact that Fleury was terrible against Philly last year.  We can debate the reasons why; including my staunch belief he was grievously overplayed in the regular season (twice starting 4 games in 6 days).  There is no doubt in my mind he wore down physically in April.

And I will not let the Penguins off the hook for what was a historically bad defensive performance in that series.  No goaltender would have thrived behind that defensive abomination.  That loss put everyone on notice; the team has to be better from 1 to 20; including the head coach. 

But simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury must be better.  He has to be a post season difference maker on this team every bit as much as Crosby and Malkin.

 
The Pens have departed early from the playoffs in three straight seasons.  There were plenty of reasons the Pens lost in 2010 and 2011 and Fleury is only one of them.  In fairness, Fleury played better than he gets credit for against Tampa and without 87 and 71 there was little or no chance the Pens would win that series.

Last year however was a different animal.  Yes the defense was exceptionally poor at times but it also became clear that other than game 5, Fleury was not making the big saves when needed.  He lost his confidence and his game fell apart.  Even after the Consol crowd performed mental CPR in game 5, Fleury crashed back to earth in game 6.

His performance was bad at face value; incomprehensible in the context of how great Fleury was for most of the season. 

It was truly the first time since he arrived in Pittsburgh that I questioned Fleury’s future with the organization.  It was also eerily reminiscent of his early season struggles in 2010-11.  That was the year that Fleury struggled terribly for two months; coinciding fortuitously with the greatest stretch of performance in Brent Johnson's life.

Which brings us back to Tomas Vokoun.

I am by no means his biggest supporter.  He always struck me as a great regular season goalie on bad teams; a guy who puts up a high save percentage but never wins anything.  You cannot objectively evaluate Vokoun’s career without conceding that he has only twice appeared in the post season and NEVER won a playoff series.  Even his work for the Czech Olympic team was subpar the one year he was their starter.

But there is no questioning that Vokoun has a number one track record and a starter’s pedigree.  There is also no question that the Penguins have never teamed a goaltender of this caliber with MAF.  At the very least, he’s capable of pushing Fleury; at the most he’s capable of taking his job.  That’s something Johnson could never do; even during his career season of 2010-11.

At face value, Vokoun was brought in to ease Fleury’s workload.  In reality however he was brought in as goaltending insurance and a legitimate threat to the number one job.  To wit, Fleury had a strong game last week in Ottawa and followed it up with a so-so performance against the Islanders; a game where he allowed just one obviously weak goal.   It’s the type of game that you could easily excuse a goaltender for given that the Pens were flat top to bottom.  In past years, that’s exactly what would have happened.

Not this year.

This year, Bylsma went immediately to Vokoun.  And Vokoun responded with a tremendous and stabilizing performance behind the best Penguin defensive effort of the year.  My guess is he will be back in the nets on Saturday against New Jersey.  A strong performance there and he might get the floundering Craps on Sunday as well.  That never would have happened with Johnson last season.

In the end, this is a good thing.  I believe Fleury is at his best when he’s pushed; as shown by Johnson in 2011 and by Ty Conklin in 2008.  Fleury never played better than he did after Conklin set a shockingly high bar with career best work.  When Fleury is at that level he is absolutely a game changing goaltender.  Having legitimate competition for post season playing time might very well push him back to it.

I also recall Bob Johnson doing the same thing to Barrasso during the first half of the 1990-91 season.  Barrasso was coming off a sluggish 1989-90 season and perhaps taking his number one position for granted.  I’m fairly confident that Tommy was not thrilled sitting behind the uninspired likes of Wendell Young and Frank Pietrangelo but ultimately the message got through; you have to be better.  That season ended with Pens carrying their first Stanley Cup.

The Penguins have some work to do to be legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.  That includes addressing a glaring need for grit and two obvious holes; a defensive defensemen and a second line winger.  As talented as this team is, those needs MUST be addressed. 

And just assuredly, they must get elite level goaltending.  Fleury has proven he can give that in the past.  This year, he'll have to prove it again.

Penguins Crash and Burn Will Sting for Awhile

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Professional Hockey Club played 11 meaningful games this season. Philadelphia won 8 of those games.

Honestly, I’m not sure much more needs to be said.

There will be a predictable amount of emotional overreaction to the Pens first round playoff demolition and understandably so. The Pens got their rear ends kicked by their most hated rival and their execution and focus in the series was questionable at best (horrendous at worst).

I still believe the Penguins were the deepest and most talented team in the National Hockey League when the playoffs started. This was a team whose radar should have been locked on one goal, the Stanley Cup. A first round exit was completely unacceptable, no matter how unfair the seeds that forced the Pens to play Philly while New Jersey got Florida.

Which is to say that championship teams do not make excuses, they just get it done. I said this in my ill-fated predictions blog; if the Pens were truly a championship team they would overcome an unfortunate first round match-up. To say the least, they did not.

Which brings us right back to losing 8 of 11 meaningful games to Philly and the inevitable conclusion one must come to given that fact. Simply put, Philadelphia was better than the Penguins all year long. We can break down and micro-analyze the series 1,000 different ways. The overriding theme simply does not change.

That should not have been the case. Not with Pronger and Maszaros out of the line-up. Not with so many rookies having to play key minutes for the Orange and Black. Not with a goaltender who struggles to find peace in his sole and harmony with universe as much as he struggles with 30 foot wrist shots. The Penguins with this roster should have been better than Philly.

They were not; not even close.

Some of it may have been psychological a point I made in my last blog. It just seems that between the overriding animosity and Philly’s remarkable penitent for comebacks this season that they got inside the Penguins collective head. Anybody watching game 3 would conclude that the Penguins had completely lost their emotional focus.

Most of it however was physical and/or technical.

The Penguins had no answers for Claude Giroux who was far and away the best player in this series. Much of the credit for that goes to Giroux; the man just had an incredible series. They had no answers for the Philly power play which flat out annihilated a penalty killing unit that was amongst the league’s best for two years straight. Sean Coulturier got so close to Geno Malkin in this series, they could have shared the same pants.

I do not subscribe to the reactionary, fire the coach approach that many fans resort to after a bad loss. At the same time Dan Bylsma will have to answer some serious questions. At the top of the list, why have players like Giroux, Ovechkin, and Mike Cammalleri utilized the Penguins as a launching pad to historic post season performances in the last four years?

That of course is only part of the story.

I’ve never been more inspired by a Penguin team than I was late last season. Undermanned without their two superstars, the Pens battled and fought harder than they ever have, refusing to give up when every reasonable consideration said they should. It was ultimately futile, they simply could not overcome the talent disparity caused by their injuries, but they never quit. And they carried that same work ethic throughout this season, even with the added benefit of Malkin and James Neal at their best.

They continued to battle with passion, fury, and focus, right up to the moment that Crosby returned. And then something clearly and obviously changed. Almost to the day that 87 reentered the line-up, the Pens became a run and gun team trying to overwhelm everyone with superior offensive talent. From there until the final moments of yesterday’s game they never reined it in, never got back to playing the kind of hockey that wins in the post season.

I’m not blaming Crosby for this or even Crosby’s return. I still believe this team was not good enough without him to win the cup. I do believe the entire club let out a collective exhale when Crosby returned. It was almost like they felt they no longer needed that superior work ethic and structure to win hockey games. With a fully loaded roster they were finally just be better than everyone else.

That’s an approach that NEVER succeeds in the NHL post season. Crosby need only ask his landlord for confirmation. The last time a superior talented Penguin team tried to win on skill alone was 1993. The end result was the terrible, awful loss to the Islanders that should never be spoken of. I saw parallels to that team heading in to the post season and wrote about it in the aforementioned predictions blog. There was just something unnerving about how this club played down the stretch, especially against their rivals to the east.

I’m not sure how else you explain what may be the worst defensive and penalty killing performance I have ever seen in the post season. Marc-Andre Fleury will take a lot of blame for this series, and deservedly so but I’m not sure any goaltender could have survived behind this abomination of defensive hockey. Yes Philly is a talented offensive team but I’ll give you pretty good odds they don’t come close to this level of offensive production in their next series.

How else do you explain the complete breakdown of discipline in this series, most notably in game 3? The Penguins faced some ridiculous and irrational criticism as arrogant, cheap shot, whiners down the stretch, criticism that was pure fiction before this series. And then in stunning and embarrassing fashion they lived up to it in game 3.

The entire Penguin club needs to take a hard look at their effort, their focus, and their execution in light of that reality.

And yet with all that we should not forget this: the Penguins lost several games to Philly before Crosby’s return. They lost several games when their work ethic, focus, and defensive play was exactly where it should be. They lost several games when Fleury was on top of his game, Malkin was dominating the league and the club was playing tight defensive hockey.

Simply put, when it’s all said and done, the Philadelphia Professional Hockey club was just better than every incarnation of the Pittsburgh Penguins this year. I will understand if that causes severe intestinal disturbance to Penguin fans. Rest assured it does for me.   It should cause similar or worse distress for the players.  A legitimate Stanley Cup favorite was crushed in the first round by its most bitter rival. More than anything else, that should sting for a long time.

A TRAVESTY OF SEEDS…FIRST ROUND NHL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

It’s been 13 seasons since the NHL converted to a conference style playoff format, with guaranteed top 3 seeds for division winners. I’m a huge fan of the conference format; but the latter stipulation has caused a fair bit of controversy over the years. This year it has made a flat-out mockery of post season match-ups.

At the crux of this injustice are the Pittsburgh Penguins; owners of the NHL’s 4th best record overall. Their reward for such excellence, an opening round match-up with the team finishing 5th. In a system that made any sense at all this match-up would not occur until AT LEAST the second round. Honestly this is the most ridiculous miscarriage of post season justice since…three months ago when a 12-4 Steeler team was forced to play on the road against 8-8 Denver.

And such is life.

Champions do not make excuses; champions just find a way to win. If the Penguins are truly championship caliber, they will overcome what is an unfortunate break of seeding. If they are not, they will not. Consider that the Pens got a huge break two years ago, facing two inferior opponents in Ottawa and Montreal. They lost in the second round anyway because the 2009-10 Penguins were not playing at a championship level.

Here is the straight dirt for hockey fans; there is no team in the NHL that is deeper or more talented than your Pittsburgh Penguins. The top three center group of Malkin, Crosby, and Staal is far and away the best in the NHL. For the first time since 2008 (the first cup year), the Pens have enough quality scoring wingers to compliment both Crosby and Malkin. The team has an elite goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury, a Norris Trophy caliber defensemen in Kris Letang and a solid if unspectacular group of D-men around him.

If this team plays to its full capabilities, nobody should be able to beat them. Not even a deep and talented Goon Squad that has given them problems all season long. Keep in mind that I have not even mentioned the intangible qualities which are Stanley Cup experience (including Coach Dan Byslma), and a hunger built on two consecutive post season flame outs.

A first round match-up against a bitter rival can be a mixed blessing. This is obviously the most difficult first round match-up in this year’s playoffs. That will force the Pens to be at their best from game 1 on with little margin for error. A series against Ottawa would obviously be easier than dealing with Claude Giroux, Bozo the Hartnell, Mr. Universe (Ilya Bryzgolav) and the man Penguin fans love to hate, Jaromir Jagr. And it could get brutally physical at times which is a concern for subsequent series.

At the same time, the Penguins parlayed a first round victory over Philly in 2009 to a Stanley Cup championship. And rest assured there was no less bitterness and hatred between the teams then, no matter how ugly things got two weeks ago.

Playoff analysts (including me) like to critique match-ups, rate strengths and weaknesses, and come up with clever insights as to who will win a series. Well I’m not doing that here because there is no point. The Pens are the best team in the league if they want to be. That means if they play with the requisite heart, grit, determination, physicality and intelligence necessary in the post season. It means showing that immeasurable determination that championship hockey teams possess.

If the Pens do all that they will win this series. If they try and win on talent alone, as they did at times down the stretch, they will replicate the horrible, awful loss that is never spoken of to the Islanders in 1993.

I’m betting on the former; as is my beautiful wife Emily…Pens in 6.

As for my remaining picks I find myself in a painful situation. Namely I’m picking no fewer than five teams that I hate to win their first round series. My wife in contrast sticks to her guns and backs only teams she likes. Here’s hoping her predictions blow mine away. Historically speaking, they likely will.  Both are noted below.


HENRICK LUNDQVIST (1) VS OTTAWA SENATORS (8)

Why New York will win in 6 games (Adam and Emily)

Both teams are trending in the wrong direction at season’s end and John Torterella is popping off about arrogant organizations and conspiracies. The Rangers are ripe to be upset, but Ottawa just is not the team to do it. In case you have any doubt say this to yourself ten times…Lundqvist versus Craig Anderson. Besides, Jason Spezza is Joe Thornton soft come playoff time and the Rangers actually have a few guys who can score this year.


BOSTON BRUINS (2) VS WASHINGTON CRAPITALS (7)

Why Washington will win in 7 games (picked with GREAT RELUCTANCE by Adam)

The Craps played up to their moniker all season long and were in serious danger of missing the post season ten days ago. Alas, playing in a dreadful division doth have its perks and thus Washington stayed alive. Now suddenly Nicklas Backstrom is back, Ovie is on fire, and the Craps are peaking at the perfect time.

The Bruins in contrast are trending very much the wrong direction. They started the season in brilliant fashion, seemingly determined to defeat the dreaded Stanley Cup hangover. Somewhere along the way however the hangover caught up (a la Chicago and Pittsburgh the last two years). The B’s just have not been that good in the second half of the season. They rely too much on Tim Thomas who seems to be wearing down. Injuries may prevent Thomas from having to pump either Michael Neuvirth or Tomas Vokun’s tires; but I foresee some bizarre 2009 Varlomov reprisal if Braden Holtby is in nets for Washington.

Why Boston will in 7 games (Emily)

Because Thomas has enough money to pay his cab fare even if Peggy won’t get him a new credit card. And the closest Ovechkin will ever get to the Stanly Cup is X Box.


FLORIDA PANTHERS (3) VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS (6)

Why New Jersey will win (Adam, 6 games, Emily 5)

Because somebody has to.

Prop bet for the series; higher number, total goals scored or total television viewers? The only excitement for me is how long it takes Kevin Dineen to yank Jose Theordore after publically declaring him “the man” in goal. This series is a hockey travesty and a singular case study for blowing up the current seed structure.


BOBBY LU AND THE FREAK TWINS (1) VS LOS ANGELES KINGS (8) 

Why Vancouver will win in 6 games (Adam)

Because your typical World Cup soccer match features more goals than the LA Kings score for Vezina candidate Jonathan Quick. If the Kings had any offense, ANY, I would say an upset is possible. Alas, given their struggles and Jeff Carter’s annual foot injury I cannot see it happening.  Besides, Vancouver's abudant nightlife will likely consume a fair amount of Carter and Mike Richards' free time.  The Slash and Run Pansies are going down…just not here.

Why Los Angeles will win in 7 games (Emily)

No self-respecting Blackhawks fan (or any true NHL hockey fan) thinks that Vancouver will win. Ever! And even a terrible team can score goals when Roberto Luongo is flailing at pucks from his stomach.


ST. LOUIS BLUES (2) VS SAN JOSE SHARKS (7)

Why St. Louis will win in 5 games (Adam)

Because Ken Hitchcock is back behind the bench, fighting with all his might to drag the NHL back to the dead puck era. The Blues have done so much damage to offensive hockey that noted goaltending sieve Brian Elliott allowed barely 1.50 goals per game this year. Brian Elliott. Seriously. And the Sharks, who usually wait until the post season to choke, appeared to pack it in for the season about two months ago.

Why San Jose will win in 6 games (Emily)

Antti Niemi is her favorite goalie of all-time. The Blues play a ridiculously cheesy opening video at their home games, their fans do a dorky power play dance, and they openly condone hand-to-hand violence against opposing-team’s mascots. Antti Niemi is tried, true, and tested. I can’t stand the grinding style of play that St. Louis utilizes – no team should ever be able to win a playoff series playing like that. Also, St. Louis has minimal playoff experience. By the way, did I mention how much she likes Antti Niemi?


THE HOCKY TEAM FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE WINNIPEG JETS (3) VS CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (6)

Why the Hawks will win in 7 (Adam)

The Hawks are deeper and more talented and that is without Jonathan Toews who appears likely to return. Keep in mind that in spite of the seeds, the Hawks finished 4 points ahead of Phoenix during the season. I’m a little uneasy with Corey Crawford between the pipes but he’s been stronger of late. And Mike Smith reminds me way to much of his current goalie coach Sean Burke, invincible in March, invisible in April.

Why the Hawks will win in 5 (Emily)…DUH (cue Chelsea Dagger)!


NASHVILLE PREDATORS (4) VS DETROIT DEAD WINGS (5)

Why Detroit will win in 7

(Adam)

This will unnerve the Pekka Rinne admiration society going on around the NHL but I see this series much as I see the Hawks and Yotes. I expect Nashville to battle like crazy…and lose. Great talent beats hard work when great talent is willing to work hard. I think Detroit will do just that. Bad break for Nashville, another team that deserved a better first round match-up than the league’s ridiculous seeding policy gave them.

(Emily)

Hatred of hockey teams south of the Mason Dixon line > Hatred of Detroit…though just barely.

Twenty Years Later ???

If you are a hockey aficionado like me, I highly recommend the Empty Netters Blog on the Post Gazette’s web site. Not only does Seth Rorabaugh do an excellent and thorough job of covering the game, but he also adds a touch of sarcasm and humor which I find to be positively, “Haber-Esqe.”

Throughout the 2010-11 season, Empty Netters has been running a feature entitled “Twenty Years Later” focusing on the 20 year anniversary of the Penguins first Stanley Cup championship. It includes recaps of every game played (often with awesome video footage) and interviews with key players from that team. Most of those players are long gone, with the notable exception of the ageless Marc Recchi. Remember when the Pens traded him in 1992, ostensibly because he was too small to survive long-term in the NHL?

Needless to say, I was thoroughly enjoying the walk down memory lane, until reality slapped me in the face this morning.

TWENTY YEARS ???

Is it really possible that today is the 20 year anniversary of one of the greatest moments in Pittsburgh sports history? Can it really be two decades since that magical season ended with Mario Lemieux lifting the franchise’s improbable first Stanley Cup?

Twenty freakin years?

Let’s see, we were 18 years old, seniors in high school when the Pens won that first championship. That would make me…never mind.

Was it not just yesterday that Mario Lemieux was the 18 year old French Canadian savior of Penguin hockey? No, that was 1984. Did I not wake up this morning to news that 18 year old Czech phenom Jaromir Jagr was coming to Pittsburgh? Sorry, 1990. I could swear that only in the last few minutes came reports that the Pens had acquired Ron Francis and Ulf Samuelsson from Hartford. That was 1991.

And now, Lemieux is the Penguins OWNER, Jagr is playing out the string in Europe and Francis and Samuelsson are both coaches and/or executives in the league. How on earth did this happen?

Here’s the thing; for me and a large portion of my audience, the Penguins are the first championship team we truly experienced. I have the vaguest of memories of the Steelers’ fourth Super Bowl in 1980; just as I have the vaguest of memories of dressing up as “the Fonz” for Halloween. I’ve said before that those first four Super Bowl championships are far more history to me than they are reality.

The Penguins however are different. We quite literally grew up together. It started with the drafting of Lemieux in 1984, the event that quite literally saved the franchise. It continued as Lemieux matured in to a superstar, and then possibly the most dominant player in NHL history. And it morphed in to a championship when the Penguins finally surrounded Le Magnifique with other championship caliber players.

I still remember dancing around my basement when the Pens acquired Paul Coffey in 1987. Finally, there was a second superstar, a player truly worthy of sharing the ice with Big 66. The other star pieces of the championship puzzle fell gradually in to place over the next three plus years; Barrasso, Recchi, Stevens, Jagr, Mullen, Trottier, Murphy, Francis, Samuelson, etc. It was a stunning build out for a club that for too long relied on other team’s leftovers.

I’m not sure today’s generation of Penguin fans can truly appreciate how impossible to fathom a Stanley Cup Championship was for us in 1991. That’s not to say we were not fully on board for the journey, we absolutely were. We just never dared allow ourselves such grandiose fantasies. Not for a team that had won exactly one playoff series in ten years.

For the most part all we knew were near misses and failures. I remember albeit vaguely the 1982 first round loss to the NY Islanders where the Pens blew a 2 goal lead in the final four minutes. I remember quite clearly blowing what should have been a slam dunk playoff appearance in 1988, in spite of Lemieux’s unwavering brilliance down the stretch. And there but for the grace of Steve Guenette go I.

The Penguins made missing the playoffs an annual event; at a time when over 75% of the league was honored annually with a post season bid.

That’s why we celebrated like drunken sailors when the 1991 Pens knocked of Washington in the second round. Going to the conference finals was new ground; a previously inconceivable destination. On a side note, would anyone have guessed then that the series would mark the beginning of two decades of torturing the Craps?

The Penguins had little or no history in those days. Now they have history to match any non original six team (and for my money one or two of them). The watershed moment for the franchise was the Stanley Cup exchange between Sidney Crosby and Lemieux in 2009? That past meets the present. To me having two completely separate eras of championship greatness is what defines a truly great organization, in any sport.

And yet I still can’t believe its been twenty years.

Twenty years since Frankie Pietrangelo’s save against New Jersey. Twenty years since Kevin Stevens guaranteed a victory over Boston after falling behind two games to none? Twenty years since Lemieux effectively destroyed John Casey’s career.

I guess it makes sense. In those days we would watch the games in Chris Cox’s basement and then play hockey in the driveway between periods (with your friendly neighborhood blogger flopping around on the asphalt making “Barrasso-like” saves”). We would celebrate any series victory by grabbing sticks out the garage and running around the block. Today’s game night activities are to say the least, far more reserved.

So much has changed. Lemieux and Jagr gave way to Crosby and Malkin. Barrasso gave way to Marc-Andre Fleury; Phil Bourque gave way to Max Talbot. The Old Igloo has given way to the brilliant new Consol Energy Barn. Mike Lange has given way to Paul Steigerwald (admittedly the one change that we would all reverse in a heartbeat if possible).

And yet so much has stayed the same. Let us not forget that a franchise that endured so much losing and sorrow in its first two decades has lifted the cup three times in the past two decades. The Pens have turned post season success from an impossible dream to an annual expectations. And they have suited up an incredible list of superstars headlined by Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin. Such thoughts were inconceivable in the early 80s, when players were threatened with trades to the Burgh.

In short, a franchise that was once laughed at and mocked is now one of the class organizations in all of sports. Pittsburgh has become a destination spot for great hockey.

Could we have possibly had the foresight in 1991 to see this coming? Certainly not, nor did we care. At that point it was about nothing more than the moment, the incomprehensible idea that, “The Stanley Cup has come to the city of Pittsburgh" to quote Lange.

We had no foresight towards the repeat championship in 1992, nor the shocking collapse of the most dominant team in Penguin’s history two years later. We could not predict Mario’s back, Stevens’ face, Jagr’s moods, or Howard Baldwin’s reckless and unruly spending spree; all of which nearly ruined the team. We had no way of knowing how close our Penguins would come to extinction in the Burgh, before more Mario magic and a fortuitous ping pong ball returned them to prominence.

How could we? We could not even predict our own futures; college, relocations, jobs, wives, kids, and everything else. All of those things that define us today were unknowns 20 years ago. Our lives were blissfully simple back then. We were far more concerned about shutting down Minnesota’s white hot power play, than we were about graduation.

All we knew or cared about was that the impossible had happened; the Pittsburgh Penguins had brought home the Stanley Cup. It was the first time in my life that I truly felt the complete and total sports happiness that comes only with a championship. It was the year I truly became a Penguin fan for life.

Or better stated…twenty years to life.

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY PENGUIN, BLESSED BE THE PENGUIN, FOR IT IS GOOD.

No Crosby, No Malkin, No Cup

You can’t win if you can’t score. Not in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

There will be all kinds of attempts to analyze or rationalize the Penguins seven game loss to Tampa. Taken in a vacuum any and all might sound reasonable. Make no mistake however; the Penguins will be on the golf course this weekend for one reason and one reason only; their two marquee superstars were in the training room rather than on the ice.

The team put up a valiant fight without Sideny Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They showed a depth of grit and resolve that for years was hidden from view by the brilliance of their superstars. They won the respect of most intelligent fans with their spectacular effort and refusal to quit. And they nearly beat a team with superior talent and fire power in the first round of the playoffs.

Nearly.

The Penguins are built like the great Chicago Bulls teams of the 1990s, two electric superstars surrounded by a terrific collection of role players. Take Jordan and Pippen away and those Bulls go from six championships to a CBA team. Take Crosby and Malkin away and you have the last three months.  That is why the Penguins became a two goal per game team without them in the line-up. And that is why a highly promising season was derailed after just one round of playoff hockey.

Before the series I stated the Penguins had to do four things to win. They had to SIGNIFICANTLY outwork Tampa, play shut down defense, forecheck the life out of them and get other worldly goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury. I also made it clear that they could do all those things and still lose. The lack of scoring punch left the Pens with zero margin for error.

Kudos to Dwayne Roloson for a solid performance and a few key saves but he stole neither game 7 nor the series as a whole. The Penguins fired a ton of shots at him few of which were of serious threat.

Game 7 was a microcosm of the entire series, and we the blue prints for it in early February. The Pens lost 1 to 0 to Washington in spite of what was arguably their best effort of the season. For my money, they dominated every aspect of play and lost for one reason, they could not score. It was that night that I came to grips with the reality of their limitations.

Game four was also a microcosm. Believe it or not, it was during that inspirational double overtime victory that I concluded the Pens were in trouble. They outplayed and outworked the Lightning by a large margin but needed 85 minutes and 53 shots to produce three grinder style goals. And with all due respect to the horrifically snake bitten James Neal, the overtime winner was a flub by Roloson.

The game four formula, plus the NHL’s gift of shootouts and points for overtime losses sustained the Penguins for the last three months of the regular season. That formula got them their three games to one lead. And frankly that formula is not sustainable. Once the Lightning realized they had only to approximate the Penguins work rate to win, the series was effectively over.

To be clear, I am neither a prophet nor a genius. I’m just an NHL history major. I watched the Lemieux/Jagr Penguins of the 90s win series exactly like this, just on the opposite end of the script. The Penguins dominated Boston and Washington in the early 90s in spite of often being outworked and outplayed. For all their hard work and grit, the Craps and Bruins of that era could not match the Pens’ superior firepower.

Go back and watch the 1992 series against Washington and you will see a virtually identical script with the Pens in Tampa’s role. The Craps outworked and outplayed the Pens for four games. With their season on the line, the Pens star players woke up, matched Washington’s effort and won the last three games. I never forgot that as I was watching Tampa’s comeback.

So when the Pens were blown off the ice in game 5, this result became sadly inevitable to me.

The loss of Crosby and Malkin is devastating for an obvious reason; you lose two game changing superstars. It also hurts for a more subtle reason; it forces everyone else to play above their normal role.

It’s one thing to ask a player or two to raise their level. Max Talbot did that in 2009 while playing wing for Geno. Without the two headed monster, the 2011 Pens asked the entire roster to work at or beyond the limits of their abilities. That’s a tall order, especially in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

That does not excuse the Penguins pathetic power play effort but it makes it easier to understand. The power play was not very good with Sid and Geno. It was lost without them. Is it fair to say that with 87 and 71 in the line-up they might have gone 4 for 34? Even production that poor likely would have had the Pens packing for Washington.

That also helps explain Jordan Staal’s lack of offensive production. Staal is a second line center at best. When he becomes the number one, opponents focus their top defense players on him. What separates players like Crosby is their ability to produce under such duress and we’ve still seen Detroit and Montreal shut him down. Staal is not and never will be Crosby. Keep in mind that Staal also had to pick up more penalty killing slack due to the loss of Matt Cooke.

The top four defensemen were extended beyond any reasonable measure. Between the four of them they played over 145 minutes in game four. That’s tough enough as it is but even worse when you can’t afford to allow more than two goals per game. It amazes me that some Penguin fans worshipped Rob Scuderri when Ovechkin torched him for 13 points; but ripped Letang and Martin for a superior effort.

Marc-Andre Fleury had to be virtually perfect. You could argue that Fleury was off in games 2 and 6 but remember that he was instrumental in all three victories, stole game one, and was brilliant in game 7. And the Pens as a team had little in the tank for games 2 and 5. In the end, if your only chance to win is for you goaltender to be perfect, you have no chance. Ask Henrik Lundqvist.

And for all the grit and hard work we saw, the reality is this; you can not RELY on Aaron Asham, Tyler Kennedy, and Talbot for offense. Championship teams win when these players fill valuable supporting roles and provide supplemental scoring; not when they are the key to success. You also can not rely on a wing and a prayer that Alexie Kovalev will discover the fountain of youth. The Penguins found out what we guessed and what Ottawa already knew, Kovy is done.

In the end it came to this; hard work, defense, and grit are merely prerequisites for any team winning a championship. You can not win without these things but by themselves they are not enough. The ultimate driver of championship hockey teams is superstars playing like superstars. That’s why Stanley Cups are lifted by the likes of Crosby and Malkin, Toews and Kane, Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

I remain very proud of this team, not withstanding the result. This is nothing like last year when they under achieved against an inferior Montreal team.  My disappointment though profound is limited only to what might have been. When we woke up on New Years day 2011, all seemed perfect in the Penguin universe. The team was a legitimate Stanley Cup favorite. Seeing that degenerate in to under manned grinders swimming up stream was hard to watch.

Honestly, I have not felt the sadness of inevitable disappointment like this since Penn State in the 1995 Rose Bowl. It was a similarly helpless feeling of knowing that no matter how great the effort, the result would not be enough.

I said before the series that the Penguins had a championship coach, championship heart, championship defense, and a championship goalie. What they lacked without Crosby and Malkin was championship talent. I hoped what they had could overcome what they lacked for one round; ultimately that was not the case.

Alas what’s done is done.

In my never ending effort to turn lemons in to lemonade, I give you this. The Penguins role players were forced to push their games to a new level without Sid and Geno. Most if not all became better players as a result. Add Crosby and Malkin to that an you just might have a championship recipe in 2012.

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY PENGUIN, BLESSED BE THE PENGUIN, FOR IT IS GOOD.

First Round Playoff Predictions - Fleury's Moment in the Sun

I have always maintained a staunch belief (or cult like zeal) that great goaltending is a prerequisite for winning a Stanley Cup. That is not exactly ground breaking news to those who know me well.

The Penguins have won three Stanley Cups in their history and played in four cup finals. On all four of those runs, goaltending was a critical element of that ultimate success. With all due respect to Ken Wregget I doubt the Stanley Cup would have found its way to Mario Lemieux’s swimming pool without Tom Barrasso.

Even with my grandiose delusions of goaltending superiority, I dare not advance the theory that Barrasso or Marc-Andre Fleury were the best players on their respective teams. Not when they were sharing ice time with the likes of Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Jaromir Jagr, Ron Francis, and Evgeni Malkin. Quite honestly, that’s the way a championship team should be built, with a great goaltender as PART OF the mix.

This may cause Disque and Filoni to fall over clutching their chests but truly I do not want an NHL where goaltenders can single handedly carry teams to championships on a regular basis. I fear this as much as I fear the league’s continued Osgood-ification, where certain teams devalue goaltenders to the point of absurdity. For the record, I define absurdity as fielding a championship caliber club in front of Michael Leighton and/or bailing on the cup winning goaltender over $2.75 Million in salary.

Ironically, while the influence of goaltenders seems to be increasing in the regular season, the opposite appears to be happening in the playoffs. With all due respect to Jaroslav Halak, we are seeing fewer and fewer instances of goaltenders carrying a team to the finals. For my money you have to go back to 2004 when Mikka Kipprusoff dragged a mediocre Calgary to game 7 of the finals, one year after Jean Sebastian Giguere did the same for Anaheim.

Which brings us to the 2011 Penguins and Marc-Andre Fleury.

Fleury is poised to boldly go where no Penguin goaltender has gone before. For the first time in team history, a Penguin goaltender is clearly and without question the team’s most critical player going in to the post season. The 2011 Penguins will literally go only as far as the Flower can carry them.

This is not about making big saves at key moments as he did in 2008 and 2009. This is about being exceedingly brilliant start to finish. Forget the obvious fact that Fleury can not afford to allow soft goals against Tampa. He needs to spend the next two weeks making life utterly miserable for Stamkos, St’Louis, and LeCavallier. It’s the only chance the Penguins have.

The Penguins are going to play this series, and possibly their entire post season run without Sidney Crosby. That’s on top of already losing Evgeni Malkin. Feel free to dispute my theory that the Pens should shut down Crosby until next season. Just understand that he’s highly unlikely to play against Tampa if at all in these playoffs.

The Penguins have played through an unprecedented run of critical injuries, pretty much since the winter classic. There are not enough superlatives to describe the team’s effort and more important results during this span. They have developed something you can not quantify; an almost indominitable will to win. With all due respect to Mike Tomlin, it’s Dan Bylsma’s Penguins who have shown that “the standard is the standard.”

But there is no mystery here; the team just does not score enough goals without 87 and 71.

If the Pens are going to beat Tampa, it will likely be by 2-0 or 2-1 type scores. They will have to work relentlessly from start to finish, in every game. They will have to forecheck the life out of Tampa’s defense. They will have to stay out of the penalty box and not give easy opportunities to Tampa’s cadre of offensive stars. The drastically improved defense will have to continue its shut down performance.

And most important, Marc-Andre Fleury will have to be the dominant player in every game.

Even that might not be enough. Heart, grit, effort and strong goaltending are prerequisites for championship success. Superstars playing like superstars are the ultimate drivers. Penguin fans know this all to well; for years the Pens beat down harder working teams like Washington and Boston by having superior firepower. I still say the best game the Pens have played since Crosby’s injury was a 1 to 0 loss to Washington; a game that potentially foreshadows the team’s ultimate fate without Crosby.

The Pens have a championship goalie, championship coach, championship defense, and a championship heart. Without 87 and 71 they lack championship skill. That may keep them from winning the cup if Sid does not play, but it’s enough to beat the Bolts…PENS IN 6.

Other Series 

Washington (F’n) Crapitals (1) over New York Rangers (8) – 7 Games

Henrik Lundqvist is vastly superior to any of Washington’s three young goaltenders which should create Halak style post traumatic stress for Craps fans. Sadly, I don’t think it will matter. The Craps have an ugly post season history; but the Rangers can go choke for choke with anybody. New York still does not have anybody who can score consistently, Washington still has Ovechkin. For the record, I’m not totally buying the Craps new “defensive identity” but on the bright side Alex Semin and Mike Green will now have viable excuses for not scoring in the playoffs.

Buffalo Sabres (7) over The Eastern Pennsylvania Orange and Black Goon Squad (2) – 7 Games

Philadelphia has without question the deepest and most talented group of skaters in the post season. They are eerily reminiscent of last year’s Blackhawks with one notable exception; as per usual, the Goons are backstopping their team with second rate goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky has been trending downward since mid season and I’m not buying another Boucher/Leighton miracle. Buffalo’s major trade deadline acquisition was apparently their new owner, the Sabres are one of the hottest teams in the league since they wrapped up due diligence. In the meantime, Chris Pronger is in the press box and Philly is stumbling backwards in to the playoffs.

Boston Bruins (3) over Montreal Canadiens (6) – 6 Games

Last year I thought Montreal was the worst of the 16 playoff teams. This year…I think Montreal is the worst of the 16 playoff teams. And in spite of his shockingly brilliant season, I’m not expecting Halak part deux from Carey Price. I know the Canadiens have tortured Boston for a century and I know there is added angst given Zdeno Chara’s attempted beheading of Max Pacioretty, but I don’t see an upset here.

Western Canadian Slash and Run Pansies (1) over Chicago Blackhawks (8) – 6 games

Last Sunday I was at the United Center watching the Hawks try and salvage an immensely disappointing season. The atmosphere was great, the Hawks had everything at stake and Detroit had nothing to play for. The Hawks promptly spit up all over themselves.

I would love nothing more than for my adopted home town team to stuff it to Bobby Lu and the Freak Twins for a third straight year. And I might think it possible if Luongo’s one man personal nightmare Dustin Byfuglien was not marooned in the hockey purgatory that is Atlanta. Alas, the salary cap apocalypse cost the Hawks too much depth, physicality and grit and it showed all season. I’m not sold on the Nucks but I think they get over their Blackhawk hump this year.

San Jose Sharks (2) over Los Angeles Kings (7) – 5 games

The Sharks typically follow dominant regular seasons with playoff meltdowns. This happens because Joe Thornton typically follows a dominant regular season with a playoff meltdown. Never fear Sharks fans, Thornton finally changed the pattern; this year he’s been invisible pretty much since opening night. That means a very deep Shark’s team has already learned to win without him. Throw in dealing up perennial playoff choker Evgeni Nabakov for Stanley Cup backstop Antti Niemi; add Los Angeles losing Anze Kopitar and it’s an easy win for the Sharks. By the way, I see big things for San Jose this year.

Detroit Dead Wing (3) over Winnipeg Jets (6) – 6 games

If the Jets had still had my defensive man crush Zbynek Michalek, one legitimate goal scorer, or an actual home ice advantage, they would have a shot in this series. That’s what happens when you match Ilya Bryzgolav and Jimmy Howard in net. Alas the Dead Wings are used to winning with inferior goaltending (“Osgood-ification”) and the Jets just can not score. Throw in Detroit having decidedly more fans at all seven games and I think the Wings are just too much.

Nashville Predators (5) over Anaheim Ducks (4) – 7 games

I’m going to admit something I NEVER thought I would ever put in writing. Anaheim’s chances to win this series rest entirely on having a healthy Ray Emery. That’s akin to Penguin fans resting their hopes on Matt Cooke winning the noble peace prize. I’ll take a moment to make sure my computer does not spontaneously combust.

The Ducks have more talent than Nashville; in fact they have arguably the best first line in the game. And they’ve actually improved since Jonas Hiller got hurt; they were far too dependent on their Swiss sensation. Alas I can’t fathom any NHL team winning a playoff series with Dan Ellis in goal; let alone one with Anaheim’s defensive weaknesses. Which means as much as I’m disgusted by the idea, Nashville finally makes the second round…unless Emery or Hiller returns.