Sidney Crosby’s Much Needed Wake Up Call

Sidney Crosby very well MIGHT be injured.

He might just as well not be.

Crosby might just be in a slump; though admittedly the worst of his professional career.  That slump, combined with the often overwhelming defensive attention he receives (with questionable legality), might simply be wearing him down mentally.

It can happen to the best of players.  I saw it first hand with Jonathan Toews last year.  He was basically a non-factor offensively for the first 9 games of the playoffs.  Things got so bad that he took three penalties, mostly undisciplined and unnecessary, in game 4 in Detroit.  He did this in what appeared to be a near must win game for the Hawks.  That’s hardly what you would expect from one of the great leaders in hockey.

Things got so bad that Brent Seabrook had to talk to Toews on the ice and blast him behind the scenes to wake him up.  Such news was shocking in Chicago where Captain Serious is revered for his devotion to his craft.  Guess what, he’s also human.

As is Sidney Crosby; no matter how much Pierre McGuire and the folks at TSN believe otherwise.

I’ve been watching sports for nearly 35 years and I’ve rarely seen anything to compete with the over-the-top Crosby love fest that regularly emanates from the North American (primarily Canadian) media.  I’m a die-hard Penguin fan and it nearly sickens me.  It’s a big driver of the anti-Crosby sentiment that exists in so many other cities, where fans are simply tired of the Crosby over-exposure.  It’s the same reason so many sports fans hate Notre Dame.

I thought it reached its apex in game 2 against Columbus when Pierre gave us 20 seconds on the creative genius of Sidney Crosby; after a routine pass set-up a 65 foot slap shot goal from Matt Niskanen.  Turns out I was wrong.  The Crosby love fest hit its apex when TSN started running Zapruder film on Crosby and doing forensic analysis of his ground speed to try and prove an injury.  I read an article linked to Puck Daddy where the writer was literally analyzing shift by shift video of Crosby late in the season to discover where an injury MIGHT have occurred.

In the meantime, the most under-appreciated superstar on the planet actually was injured and it was never mentioned. 

Does anybody even remember that Evgeni Malkin broke his foot with three weeks left in the regular season?  Did anybody even bother to ask if Malkin was 100% healthy when the playoffs started?  Is it possible, just possible, that Malkin’s early struggles were a combination of rust from a three week layoff and perhaps playing at less than 100%?

Not that I would expect it to be mentioned.  I mean Malkin had a hat trick against Columbus and Pierre barely mentioned his name on any of the goals.  Instead he credited Crosby on Malkin’s first goal and Niskanen on his second.  Heaven forbid anybody outside of Pittsburgh or Magnitogorsk acknowledges anything positive about 71.

Look, it’s very possible Crosby is hurt.  I personally think he’s looked off since the Olympics.  That includes the actual games by the way as Crosby was relatively mediocre by his standards in Sochi.  If Crosby was injured at any time between Slovenia and Columbus however, the Penguins had ample opportunity to rest him given their huge division lead.  That they chose to do so only in spots (two individual games), calls that in to question in my mind.

Moreover, if he was hurt, did Crosby miraculously get healthy last night.  Because let’s be honest, in spite of a zero in the box score, that was far and away his most inspired performance in months. 

None of us have access to the Penguin locker room.  So we rely on the Pittsburgh media to give us that behind the scenes view.  Last week Joe Starkey wrote in the Tribune Review that Crosby looked joyless most of the second half.  He compared his demeanor on a daily basis to one who just had a root canal.  That’s hardly an encouraging portrayal of the face of the franchise. 

We also know that veteran leaders such as Orpik, Scuderi, and Adams, were notably boisterous down the stretch about the lack or passion or urgency coming from the squad.  I cannot help but wonder if some of that was pointed directly at 87.  Sid has many strengths as a player but accepting criticism in his own house has never been one of them.  Just ask Marc Recchi.

It was all disconcerting stuff to be sure; worrisome enough that I questioned whether Dan Bylsma had lost the locker room and should be fired with two weeks left in the season.  That’s a desperation solution at face value; being proposed by someone who generally detests the tiresome, catch-all, fire the coach mentality that pervades professional sports.

Let’s be honest, the Pens are not a Stanley Cup favorite this year.  They might be no better than the 6^th best team still playing (though fortunate to be matched against likely the 8^th best).  That said, whatever opportunity they have to make a deep run or to miraculously lift Lord Stanley’s cup has a stated prerequisite; Crosby must return to the top of his game.

On Sunday night, he showed definitive signs of that happening for the first time this post season. 

Not surprisingly, the Pens followed his lead.  Hockey has this odd follow the captain culture that does not seem to exist in any other sport.  Crosby’s inspired effort seemed to drive his entire team.  The Penguins played their most complete game of the playoffs.  It was not just the performance but the intensity level, physicality, and attention to detail for 60 minutes.  It was exactly the kind of effort needed to turn this club in the right direction.

I would add this, it was not quite the anomaly that some are suggesting.  The Pens were similarly dominant in game 5 against Columbus when they fired 51 shots in regulation and controlled play start to finish.  In my opinion they’ve played two of their most complete playoff games since the 09 cup run in their last four outings.  Throw in a dominant effort for the first 50 minutes of game 6 (partially mitigated by an ugly last 10), and this Penguin team appears to be trending the right direction.

There are many reasons for this, with health being at the top of the list.  Last night was arguably the first time this season the Pens had their true top 12 forwards in the line-up.  The simple fact that Tanner Glass was a healthy scratch was a key positive.  There was also a season best performance from the team’s blue liners and another strong effort from Marc-Andre Fleury.  Let’s face it; we were all justifiably concerned about Fleury after his game 4 meltdown.  Instead he’s lifted his game to something approximating his 08 and 09 post season levels.

In the short-term, these were critical drivers of last night’s victory.  In the long-term, the Crosby revival may be remembered as the story of the night.  Toews recovered his game last year and lead Chicago to a championship.  Here’s hoping Crosby follows suit.   

Dan Bylsma's Last Shot

The Stanley Cup finals started last night with a truly sensational game between Chicago and Boston.  Recency bias and hyperbole make for a bad combination so I’ll resist the urge quantify its greatness.  Suffice to say it was the kind of game that drives many of us to believe that there is nothing better in sports than post season hockey.  For me it had everything; everything except the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That is ironic because yesterday marked the 4 year anniversary of arguably the greatest game in Penguins’ history.  Their gut wrenching game 7 victory in Detroit was perhaps the seminal moment for a franchise that has enjoyed far greater success than it’s credited.

In the aftermath of their elusive third championship the club’s future potential seemed boundless.  A once in a generation assemblage of young stars had matured to full potential, winning a Stanley Cup well before their time.  The general manager was locking in those stars on manageable long-term contracts.  And for the first time in their history, they seemed to have the perfect head coach to steer the ship.  There was every reason to believe that cup celebrations would be the norm for this group.

And yet as the finals kicked off last night the only Penguin discussion we were contemplating was Ray Shero’s emphatic endorsement of Dan Byslma as his coach for next season.  It’s a worthwhile debate, especially since I considered Disco Dan’s continued employment an even money proposition at best when I awoke on Wednesday.

Taken in a vacuum, one can just as easily conclude that Bylsma is or is not responsible for the Pens crash and burn performance against Boston.  His supporters state that he cannot be blamed for the sudden and complete disappearance of the team’s offensive stars.  His detractors state that he must be held accountable for the club’s lackluster play and lack of composure in the first two games of the series; and for getting swept with perhaps the most talented roster in the NHL.  Both arguments are accurate to a point.

I made it clear on Monday that my biggest issue with Bylsma was consistent lack of discipline shown by his team over the entire playoff run.  It manifested last year against Philly. And it manifested on several occasions before the conference finals; most notably with the inexcusable short-handed goal the Pens allowed to Ottawa in the waning seconds of game 3.  But it was never more brutally obvious than in the first two games against the Bruins. 

The Penguins ardently refused to make the smart simple plays necessary to succeed this time of year.  As noted in Monday’s blog, I’ve watched Chicago’s defensemen repeatedly defuse pressure in their own zone with simple bank passes of the boards.  In contrast the Penguins have Kris Letang, the Brett Favre of NHL defensemen, constantly trying to stickhandle through pressure or worse yet, throw blind backhand passes up the middle of the ice.   

At any given moment, the players are responsible for not executing properly.  When the same issue continues unabated for two years it falls primarily on the coach.

Given that, Bylsma should not be evaluated in the vacuum of one series; rather by his overall body of work.  And that is an eminently complex affair, as Bylsma’s track record is emminently complex. 

If it were simply the juxtaposition of regular season success against playoff disappointment it would be an easy call.  It’s not.  Not when the same coach who oversaw four consecutive post season flame outs also lead one of the great championship runs in NHL history.  Not when this year’s loss, as disappointing as it was, occurred in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This situation best parallels Bill Cowher and the Steelers, circa January 2005.  The franchise was at a crossroads after Cowher’s 15-1 team was blown out of Heinz Field by New England in the AFC Championship game.  It marked the 4^th time in 14 years that Cowher’s team lost an AFC title game at home.  And it continued a confounding trend of regular season dominance followed by playoff collapse.  At that time there was fairly compelling, albeit circumstantial evidence that Cowher simply could not lead the Steelers to a championship.

The Steelers stuck it out with Cowher in 2005 and he ultimately delivered.  In so doing they established their franchise as a model of organizational stability.   That is in stark contrast to the Penguins who for most of their history have treated coaches as interchangeable parts.

So I salute the Penguins for once embracing stability over chaos.  I salute them for finally accepting the possibility that the players should be held accountable as much if not more so than the coach.  This is very much a new concept at the New Energy Barn and would seem to indicate a maturation of the organization.  It’s also a testament to the coaching street cred Bylsma earned though winning that championship in 2009.         

I do wonder however if the Penguins are standing not so much behind Bylsma as they are Sidney Crosby (and to a lesser degree Evgeni Malkin).  This is an organization with a track record of terrible coaching decisions made solely to appease their superstars.  How else do you justify firing Scotty Bowman for Eddie Johnston or in any way, shape, or form hiring Ivan Hlinka?  Given that history, and Mario Lemieux’s current ownership percentage, it’s not beyond consideration that Bylsma’s greatest coaching asset is that he keeps Sid the Kid happy.

I’m not saying definitely that is the case, but I cannot rule it out, especially when Bylsma’s extension precedes Malkin’s by just 24 hours.  We learned from the Johnston and Hlinka debacles that hiring coaches solely to placate superstars is a recipe for post season disappointment.  It’s even greater a concern when you factor in that Crosby, as much as anybody in the organization need to step up his post season performance going forward.  That is not going to happen if the head coach is in his pocket.

Regardless, the decision is made and Bylsma is staying, at least for one more year.  I am neither endorsing nor disputing it for all the reasons mentioned above.  I’m not yet convinced that Bylsma is the problem or the solution to this team’s ills.  That said, results speak for themselves and Bylsma’s window is clearly inching towards closure.

I will say this.  The Penguins cannot trot out the same coach, same system, and same players that have endured four consecutive playoff failures.  Most coaches would not survive such a run; especially when the last two were catastrophic in nature.  The team has refused to embrace the most critical components of playoff hockey success in spite of giving continual lip service to doing just that.  This means either that Bylsma is failing to deliver the message or the players are failing to receive it.  By hitching his wagon to the head coach, Shero is essentially stating the latter.

This means Shero absolutely must make personnel changes in the offseason.  He must deploy a better and more committed group of defensive players around 87 and 71.  He must find players who will embrace the need for structured and disciplined hockey, even when playing with superior offensive talent.  And he probably needs to accept that it is financially untenable to keep Letang or Marc-Andre Fleury on the roster at this point.

Even assuming such changes, Bylsma still needs to get the message through to his star players.  The Blackhawks have proved throughout the playoffs that a team with high end talent can be successful in the post season by playing the right way.  Doing it against Boston last night further crystalized the point.  Bylsma has been given one last shot to get that message across.  If he fails, it will likely be his last.

Penguins Post Mortem, Toughness and Discipline Needed

I read an absolutely stunning statistics in Dejan Kovacevic’s column in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review last Friday.  He pointed out that through the first three games of the series against Boston; a span including nearly 11 full periods of hockey, the Penguins generated THREE rebound shots on Tuukka Rask. 

That’s not a misprint...THREE rebound shots.  And one of those came off the stick of noted sniper Craig Adams.

I sensed that this was the case just watching the first three games so I focused in on it in game 4.  Other than the Penguins' desperation flurry at the end of the game, I do not recall a single rebound shot the entire game.

There will be an infinite amount of post mortem analysis this summer on the Penguins latest post season melt down.  Multiple theories will be posited, multiple scapegoats served up.  All will have some measure of validity but to my way of thinking, you need not look beyond that mind numbing rebound statistic as the starting point. 

From a micro standpoint it tells you that the Penguins had basically zero net front presence in this series and that the Boston defense, specifically Zdeno Chara dominated the Pittsburgh forwards.  I think that’s a pretty fair assessment when you consider the Penguins scored just 2 goals the series, after potting 47 in the first two rounds. 

It’s also a good explanation for why Rask appears to have suddenly morphed in to the greatest goaltender in NHL history.  Some will suggest the Pens once again got beat again by a hot goaltender, a theory I categorically dismiss.  Pretty much any top line NHL goalie is going to look that way when they are not dealing with screens, deflections and second chances.  Quite simply, the Penguins made Rask’s job far too easy.

From a macro standpoint, it tells you the biggest problem the Pittsburgh Penguins have as a team.  Namely, they are not tough enough.

Let me be clear on this, every member of that team is tougher than 99.9% of society at large.  I’m not questioning their heart or manhood.  Most people would not survive one day of what these warriors go through in the Stanley Cup playoffs. 

That does not change the fact that relative to the other ELITE teams in the NHL, the Penguins are simply not tough enough.  They play too much of a finesse game, in a league that no longer tolerates finesse.  We can argue until the end of time whether that’s the makes sense; I personally find it astounding how hard the NHL works to prevent its stars from being stars.  Regardless, we have to deal in reality.

Toughness has always been a prerequisite for post season success.  With the possible exception of Carolina in 2006, speedy perimeter skill teams do not win Stanley Cups.  As talented as the 2008-09 Penguins were what always stands out in my mind is how hard they battled in the finals against Detroit, especially in the last two games.

But in today’s NHL, toughness it’s more important than ever.  Even with all the changes introduced to maintain speed and flow in the game, the teams that succeed in the post season are the toughest to play against.  Defensive systems are more advanced than ever and talent and strategy is simply not enough to beat them.  You have to flat out work or better yet, out battle teams to beat them.

I simply did not see that compete level from the Penguins in this series, even in games 3 and 4.

Such commitment is absolutely possible from a high end skill hockey team.  It’s why the Chicago Blackhawks are in the Stanley Cup finals in spite of playing arguably the NHL’s toughest defensive team in the 3^rd round.  The LA Kings makes you work for every inch of open ice.  You cannot beat a team like that without talent but that talent must be willing to sell out 100% every night to do so.  Chicago matched LA’s work ethic, physicality and defensive presence throughout the series.  Ultimately their high end talent came to the forefront and made the difference in games 4 and 5.

The Penguins superior offensive talent makes them nearly invincible in the regular season; because most teams on most nights do not raise their work ethic to the same level they do in April and May.  They looked just as invincible in the first two rounds thanks to fortuitous match-ups with teams that gave their super skilled players an abundance of open ice to work with.  The problem was that when Boston forced them to earn their ice, they came up woefully short.

It took the Pens two embarrassing home losses before they realized how tough they would have to play in the conference finals.  And even when they figured in out in game three, they still demonstrated an alarming lack of net front presence and/or ability to win battles.  I’ve heard a lot of talk about Jarome Iginla being used improperly by Dan Bylsma.  What I have not heard enough of is how many times Iginla was knocked off the puck and/or lost a one on one battle in the offensive zone.

I also have not heard nearly enough about the frequent net front fly byes from Neal, Kunitz, and Morrow that were far too often the norm in this series.  For all the criticism of Evgeni Malkin, he fired 21 shots in 4 games and created numerous grade A scoring opportunities.  How many times did a Pittsburgh player skate right past a rebound Malkin created?  The Penguins simply had zero net front presence to finish it off. 

To that end, I put as much if not more blame on the Penguins power forwards and grinders than I do on the Crosby, Letang, and Malkin.  If you think I’m off base on this, consider that the Blackhawks are going to the Stanley Cup finals even though Jonathan Toews has just one goal in the post season.  Consider how critical Max Talbot, Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy, and even Miro Satan were to the Pens cup run in 2009.

Physicality was not the only issue; lack of discipline was every bit the concern.  Going back to the Islanders’ series I was bothered by the mind boggling number of defensive zone turnovers by the Penguins, especially Kris Letang.  I heard the Pens talk over and over about making smarter simpler plays.  And yet there was Letang in game 2, right after a critical penalty kill, making a horrendous and amateurish turnover that lead to a game changing goal.  The play was awful enough at face value; even worse when you consider the payoff for success was a potential Brooks Orpik breakaway.

That kind of mental error, which we saw over and over again, is inexcusable at this level.  I blame the players for failure to execute but also the coaching staff for not getting the message through.  Again, I concentrated on how the Blackhawks defense played game 5 against Los Angeles.  The Chicago backline is every bit as skilled as the Penguins and yet time after time after time they made smart simple clearing plays off the boards.  Credit the players but also credit Coach Joel Quenneville for getting the message through on how the team had to play.

If Bylsma is unemployed before next season, the lack of discipline repeatedly demonstrated by his players will be the primary reason.  What Ray Shero has to decide is did Bylsma fail to get the message across or does he have players who are unwilling to accept it?  That decision will determine whether Bylsma returns and/or Kris Letang gets the monster contract extension required to keep him in the Burgh.

Either way, it will make for a long and difficult offseason.  I refuse to call a final four appearance a complete failure but it’s unquestionably a disappointment.  As a result, the franchise is at a critical cross road.  Their problems are eminently fixable.  The question is how…and with whom.

The End of the Line for Marc-Andre Fleury

Over the years I’ve been a passionate supporter, and defender of Marc-Andre Fleury.

That has not always been easy given the legion of Fleury critics amongst both Penguin fans and the local and national media.  There were many who chose to blame Fleury for every Penguin ill while downplaying or even ignoring his contributions to their success.  I never understood it; especially when you combined Fleury’s track record of victories with his eminently likeable personality.

So let me start off by acknowledging what should be but is not assumed to be obvious; Marc-Andre Fleury was a critical component to the Penguins success over the past seven years.  More to the point, he was a critical component of back-to-back Stanley Cup finals runs and the franchise’s elusive 3^rd championship in 2009.  His game 7 saves on future hall of famers Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Lidstrom are rightfully considered the stuff of legend.

He was part of the foundation; a core superstar.  There was every reason to believe he would mind the nets in the Burgh for another decade.  And as we sit here today; I see it as unlikely he will be a Penguin next month.

Simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury is playing himself right out of Pittsburgh.

Another concession to the obvious; goaltending is fairly low on the list of reasons the Penguins were man handled by Boston in game 2.  Before we get to Fleury or Tomas Vokoun, a good hard look needs to be taken at Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and just about every other front line player on the roster.  The head coach and general manager are hardly above scrutiny either.

That does not change the fact that the Marc-Andre Fleury we once knew seems long gone, at least when the season becomes best 4 out of 7.  What remains is a goaltender with zero post season confidence, one that seems incapable of making even the most basic saves on a consistent basis.  It’s a stunning and perhaps unprecedented fall for an elite Pittsburgh athlete in my lifetime.

Fleury’s issues are not about physical ability and I think we all know it.  There are few goaltenders in hockey as athletically gifted as MAF; a point he continually demonstrates with superior regular season play.  Fleury’s critics like to point out the overall talent on the Penguins or his comparatively pedestrian statistics (excluding wins of course).  In so doing, they conveinently overlook the Penguins often lackadaisical approach to defense.  Does anybody truly believe that Brian Elliott would post a 1.95 goals against average playing for this team?

No, Fleury’s current post season issues are unequivocally between the ears.  His confidence seems to come undone after a bad goal or two and once it does his entire game breaks down. I’m not talking about struggling to control rebounds or giving up the occasional soft goal.  I’m talking about a goaltender that seems to lose even the most basic constructs of his position in the post season.  When you juxtapose that against his regular season play and early career playoff success, it’s impossible to come to any other conclusion.

The irony is that this is the exact criticism Fleury faced during the early part of his career; even though it was totally unfounded by the results on the ice.  I wrote an impassioned defense of Fleury after he lead the Penguins to the 2009 Cup pointing out that but for one bit of bad luck at the World Junior Championships, there was nothing in his actual resume that substantiated his reputation as a big game flake.  Fleury’s performance from 2006-07 through that 7^th game in Detroit was exemplary; especially given the team’s aforementioned aversion to strong defensive hockey.

You could make a convincing argument that Fleury’s post season play was trending downward in 2010 and 2011; although I maintain he played better in the hopeless Tampa series than he gets credit for.  In both the Montreal and Tampa series there was at least a debatable premise regarding Fleury’s level of culpability.  You could argue accurately that he was not the reason the Pens lost either series; but just as accurately that he did not consistently raise his level to be the difference maker.   I would distill it down to this; he was part of the problem in those losses but by no means the root of it.  

The issue the last two years is that the quality of his post season work is no longer debatable.  He’s gone from trending downward to a complete train wreck.  His play has become indefensible; in spite of meager efforts from his coach and teammates to do just that.  Keep in mind this critique is coming from an unabashed Fleury fan; one who was often branded an apologist in my persistent battles with his critics.

To be fair, the Penguins played HISTORICALLY bad defense in front of Fleury in last year’s loss to Philly.  They broke down first and he follow suit with a meltdown of his own.  This year he collapsed of his own volition, even if the team’s defensive work against the Islanders was less than inspired.  Vokoun’s strong performance in relief made that abundantly clear. 

My opinions about Vokoun’s abilities are also a matter of public record on this blog.  I’ve never thought him better than a second tier starter, if that.  Fleury at his best is the superior goaltender.  So it should not be taken lightly when I state that for better or for worse, Vokoun should be the only option the Penguins consider in goal the remainder of the post season, however long that should be. 

That is exactly how I expect this to play out. 

Dan Bylsma is smart enough not to bury a popular and accomplished veteran in the media and thus tends to downplays Fleury’s struggles at every turn.  In reality, I believe he’s lost all confidence in MAF, an issue no doubt compounded by concerns about his own jobs security.  No matter Bylsma’s public disposition on the topic or the journalistic meanderings of Puck Daddy and others, I cannot fathom that Fleury will start another game; barring injury to Vokoun.  The hope is that the team rediscovers its form and that Vokoun for lack of a better term can “Osgood” them to a championship.

I truly believe that last night was Fleury’s last shot.   In a game where the situation was already bleak he was given one last opportunity to resuscitate his game. The hope was that Fleury would rediscover his 2008/2009 post season form; or for that matter his 2013 regular season form, either of which is a better option than Vokoun.  Instead Fleury emphatically reaffirmed Bylsma’s decision to take away his net with another very shaky effort.

In the bigger picture, Fleury’s time in the Burgh is likely at its end.  The team as currently constructed is in the heart of their championship window.  They cannot support a goaltender who in back-to back years has demonstrated a profound inability to perform in the post season; let alone one who takes $5 Million annually off their salary cap.  The issue is magnified against the specter of another disappointing post season finish and the team’s imposing future contact obligations.  Kudos to Ray Shero for having the foresight to hedge his bets this season with Vokoun but realistically, he’s not the long-term answer either.

Fleury will land on his skates; he’s too talented not too.  And a new, lower pressure environment might be exactly what he needs to rebuild his fragile confidence.   I hope it happens for him, I just do not see it happening in the Burgh.

Free Ride is Over for Fleury

At his best, Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the top goaltenders in the National Hockey League.

And like most elite goaltenders, Fleury often suffers at the expense of unreasonable fan expectations.  Which is a politically correct way of saying he bears the brunt of the blame whenever the red light goes on, deserved or not.

That’s the life of an NHL goaltender; especially one who plays for a talented team that can be charitably described as “lapse” times defensively from time to time.  Tom Barrasso lived in comparable fashion during his best years in the Burgh, long before he became a local media pariah.  It's fair to say that life as a Penguin goaltender is far more challenging than it is for say, Brian Elliott in St’ Louis.

Perhaps it truly is a matter of expectations.  We have seen that Fleury at his best can be as good as any goaltender in the game.  So to whatever extent he’s not at that level it’s considered a letdown.  That may very well be the case but I struggle to believe that Henrik Lundqvist faces the same level of vitriol as Fleury after a bad performance.

More often than not I think Fleury is an easy scapegoat.  Most fans remember Michael Grabner’s shot going under Fleury’s arm; not the horrendous giveaway by Deryk Engelland that precipitated a 100 foot breakaway. 

So with that preamble in the bank, I will now contradict pretty much everything I’ve stated above.  As great as Fleury is and can be, as great as he was during back to back Stanley Cup finals’ runs, he is officially on notice.  He has to be better, especially in the post season.  And if he is not, he will not play.  The Penguins made that crystal clear by bringing in Tomas Vokoun as their second goaltender.

Ray Shero could have signed any number of back-ups during the offseason.  He could have brought in a reliable second guy like Chris Mason or Al Montoya.  Instead he chose a goaltender with a decade long track record as a 60+ game starter.  That was not an accident or coincidence, it was a message.  The goaltending paradigm in the Burgh has changed.

Simply put, the days where Marc-Andre Fleury can expect to start 4 of 5 games on reputation alone are over.  The Pens have made it clear that if he’s not the best goaltender, he sits.  I truly believe Fleury must outplay Vokoun to keep his job, for better or for worse.

The issue is no longer assessing Fleury’s culpability in losses.  It’s now about whether Fleury can be the difference maker in Penguin wins.  Good is no longer good enough.  Fleury has to be great, and consistently so.

That’s his pedigree and his pay grade.  When you have a $5 Million per year goaltender and a shaky defense, the expectations are clear.  Fleury needs to return to his 2009 and 2010 post season form.  He cannot be a caretaker net minder on this team; he has to be the Jonathan Quick or Tim Thomas style difference maker he is fully capable of being.

There is no getting around the fact that Fleury was terrible against Philly last year.  We can debate the reasons why; including my staunch belief he was grievously overplayed in the regular season (twice starting 4 games in 6 days).  There is no doubt in my mind he wore down physically in April.

And I will not let the Penguins off the hook for what was a historically bad defensive performance in that series.  No goaltender would have thrived behind that defensive abomination.  That loss put everyone on notice; the team has to be better from 1 to 20; including the head coach. 

But simply put, Marc-Andre Fleury must be better.  He has to be a post season difference maker on this team every bit as much as Crosby and Malkin.

 
The Pens have departed early from the playoffs in three straight seasons.  There were plenty of reasons the Pens lost in 2010 and 2011 and Fleury is only one of them.  In fairness, Fleury played better than he gets credit for against Tampa and without 87 and 71 there was little or no chance the Pens would win that series.

Last year however was a different animal.  Yes the defense was exceptionally poor at times but it also became clear that other than game 5, Fleury was not making the big saves when needed.  He lost his confidence and his game fell apart.  Even after the Consol crowd performed mental CPR in game 5, Fleury crashed back to earth in game 6.

His performance was bad at face value; incomprehensible in the context of how great Fleury was for most of the season. 

It was truly the first time since he arrived in Pittsburgh that I questioned Fleury’s future with the organization.  It was also eerily reminiscent of his early season struggles in 2010-11.  That was the year that Fleury struggled terribly for two months; coinciding fortuitously with the greatest stretch of performance in Brent Johnson's life.

Which brings us back to Tomas Vokoun.

I am by no means his biggest supporter.  He always struck me as a great regular season goalie on bad teams; a guy who puts up a high save percentage but never wins anything.  You cannot objectively evaluate Vokoun’s career without conceding that he has only twice appeared in the post season and NEVER won a playoff series.  Even his work for the Czech Olympic team was subpar the one year he was their starter.

But there is no questioning that Vokoun has a number one track record and a starter’s pedigree.  There is also no question that the Penguins have never teamed a goaltender of this caliber with MAF.  At the very least, he’s capable of pushing Fleury; at the most he’s capable of taking his job.  That’s something Johnson could never do; even during his career season of 2010-11.

At face value, Vokoun was brought in to ease Fleury’s workload.  In reality however he was brought in as goaltending insurance and a legitimate threat to the number one job.  To wit, Fleury had a strong game last week in Ottawa and followed it up with a so-so performance against the Islanders; a game where he allowed just one obviously weak goal.   It’s the type of game that you could easily excuse a goaltender for given that the Pens were flat top to bottom.  In past years, that’s exactly what would have happened.

Not this year.

This year, Bylsma went immediately to Vokoun.  And Vokoun responded with a tremendous and stabilizing performance behind the best Penguin defensive effort of the year.  My guess is he will be back in the nets on Saturday against New Jersey.  A strong performance there and he might get the floundering Craps on Sunday as well.  That never would have happened with Johnson last season.

In the end, this is a good thing.  I believe Fleury is at his best when he’s pushed; as shown by Johnson in 2011 and by Ty Conklin in 2008.  Fleury never played better than he did after Conklin set a shockingly high bar with career best work.  When Fleury is at that level he is absolutely a game changing goaltender.  Having legitimate competition for post season playing time might very well push him back to it.

I also recall Bob Johnson doing the same thing to Barrasso during the first half of the 1990-91 season.  Barrasso was coming off a sluggish 1989-90 season and perhaps taking his number one position for granted.  I’m fairly confident that Tommy was not thrilled sitting behind the uninspired likes of Wendell Young and Frank Pietrangelo but ultimately the message got through; you have to be better.  That season ended with Pens carrying their first Stanley Cup.

The Penguins have some work to do to be legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.  That includes addressing a glaring need for grit and two obvious holes; a defensive defensemen and a second line winger.  As talented as this team is, those needs MUST be addressed. 

And just assuredly, they must get elite level goaltending.  Fleury has proven he can give that in the past.  This year, he'll have to prove it again.

Penguins Crash and Burn Will Sting for Awhile

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Professional Hockey Club played 11 meaningful games this season. Philadelphia won 8 of those games.

Honestly, I’m not sure much more needs to be said.

There will be a predictable amount of emotional overreaction to the Pens first round playoff demolition and understandably so. The Pens got their rear ends kicked by their most hated rival and their execution and focus in the series was questionable at best (horrendous at worst).

I still believe the Penguins were the deepest and most talented team in the National Hockey League when the playoffs started. This was a team whose radar should have been locked on one goal, the Stanley Cup. A first round exit was completely unacceptable, no matter how unfair the seeds that forced the Pens to play Philly while New Jersey got Florida.

Which is to say that championship teams do not make excuses, they just get it done. I said this in my ill-fated predictions blog; if the Pens were truly a championship team they would overcome an unfortunate first round match-up. To say the least, they did not.

Which brings us right back to losing 8 of 11 meaningful games to Philly and the inevitable conclusion one must come to given that fact. Simply put, Philadelphia was better than the Penguins all year long. We can break down and micro-analyze the series 1,000 different ways. The overriding theme simply does not change.

That should not have been the case. Not with Pronger and Maszaros out of the line-up. Not with so many rookies having to play key minutes for the Orange and Black. Not with a goaltender who struggles to find peace in his sole and harmony with universe as much as he struggles with 30 foot wrist shots. The Penguins with this roster should have been better than Philly.

They were not; not even close.

Some of it may have been psychological a point I made in my last blog. It just seems that between the overriding animosity and Philly’s remarkable penitent for comebacks this season that they got inside the Penguins collective head. Anybody watching game 3 would conclude that the Penguins had completely lost their emotional focus.

Most of it however was physical and/or technical.

The Penguins had no answers for Claude Giroux who was far and away the best player in this series. Much of the credit for that goes to Giroux; the man just had an incredible series. They had no answers for the Philly power play which flat out annihilated a penalty killing unit that was amongst the league’s best for two years straight. Sean Coulturier got so close to Geno Malkin in this series, they could have shared the same pants.

I do not subscribe to the reactionary, fire the coach approach that many fans resort to after a bad loss. At the same time Dan Bylsma will have to answer some serious questions. At the top of the list, why have players like Giroux, Ovechkin, and Mike Cammalleri utilized the Penguins as a launching pad to historic post season performances in the last four years?

That of course is only part of the story.

I’ve never been more inspired by a Penguin team than I was late last season. Undermanned without their two superstars, the Pens battled and fought harder than they ever have, refusing to give up when every reasonable consideration said they should. It was ultimately futile, they simply could not overcome the talent disparity caused by their injuries, but they never quit. And they carried that same work ethic throughout this season, even with the added benefit of Malkin and James Neal at their best.

They continued to battle with passion, fury, and focus, right up to the moment that Crosby returned. And then something clearly and obviously changed. Almost to the day that 87 reentered the line-up, the Pens became a run and gun team trying to overwhelm everyone with superior offensive talent. From there until the final moments of yesterday’s game they never reined it in, never got back to playing the kind of hockey that wins in the post season.

I’m not blaming Crosby for this or even Crosby’s return. I still believe this team was not good enough without him to win the cup. I do believe the entire club let out a collective exhale when Crosby returned. It was almost like they felt they no longer needed that superior work ethic and structure to win hockey games. With a fully loaded roster they were finally just be better than everyone else.

That’s an approach that NEVER succeeds in the NHL post season. Crosby need only ask his landlord for confirmation. The last time a superior talented Penguin team tried to win on skill alone was 1993. The end result was the terrible, awful loss to the Islanders that should never be spoken of. I saw parallels to that team heading in to the post season and wrote about it in the aforementioned predictions blog. There was just something unnerving about how this club played down the stretch, especially against their rivals to the east.

I’m not sure how else you explain what may be the worst defensive and penalty killing performance I have ever seen in the post season. Marc-Andre Fleury will take a lot of blame for this series, and deservedly so but I’m not sure any goaltender could have survived behind this abomination of defensive hockey. Yes Philly is a talented offensive team but I’ll give you pretty good odds they don’t come close to this level of offensive production in their next series.

How else do you explain the complete breakdown of discipline in this series, most notably in game 3? The Penguins faced some ridiculous and irrational criticism as arrogant, cheap shot, whiners down the stretch, criticism that was pure fiction before this series. And then in stunning and embarrassing fashion they lived up to it in game 3.

The entire Penguin club needs to take a hard look at their effort, their focus, and their execution in light of that reality.

And yet with all that we should not forget this: the Penguins lost several games to Philly before Crosby’s return. They lost several games when their work ethic, focus, and defensive play was exactly where it should be. They lost several games when Fleury was on top of his game, Malkin was dominating the league and the club was playing tight defensive hockey.

Simply put, when it’s all said and done, the Philadelphia Professional Hockey club was just better than every incarnation of the Pittsburgh Penguins this year. I will understand if that causes severe intestinal disturbance to Penguin fans. Rest assured it does for me.   It should cause similar or worse distress for the players.  A legitimate Stanley Cup favorite was crushed in the first round by its most bitter rival. More than anything else, that should sting for a long time.

A Brutal, Perspective Challenging Penguin Loss

A significant part of my maturation as a sports fan has been the development of what the more enlightened among us might call, “perspective.” Which is to say I’ve learned, with all due respect to Ilya Bryzgolav to view sports in the proper context of its overall importance to the universe.

To be clear, I’m not one who says you can’t be upset about sports simply because there are terrorists or starving people in the world. Those are horrible things; far worse than what happens on an any athletic field. At the same time if you love your teams and they are important to you, it’s okay to hurt after a difficult loss. Nowhere is it written that you cannot feel sadness simply because there is greater sadness in the world.

The difference between Adam 2012 versus say, Adam 1992 is how much I let those losses affect me. It took me days to shake off the horrible, awful, loss that should never be spoken of to the Islanders in 1993. Some would say I’m still not totally over it. In contrast, I was for the most part able to put the Steelers’ most recent Super Bowl loss behind me 24 hours later after a therapeutic lunch with Doug (Doug?).

I take great pride and comfort in my maturation and new found perspective on sports. No matter how bad a loss is, I like to get up the next day and move on with life. There are just too many other things that are FAR more important.

So I’ll be the first to admit, I’m more than a bit shaken by how much last night's Penguin loss is disturbing me. Honestly, I cannot remember a Pittsburgh sporting event that upset me this much since the Steelers lost the 2001 AFC Championship game at home to New England. The loss was the last thing I thought of before going to bed and the first thing I thought of when I woke up this morning. The former is okay for Adam 2012, the latter is much more Adam 1992.

Simply put, I cannot fathom a more brutal start to a playoff series than blowing a 3-0 lead at home, to your most bitter rival. Losing game 1 of a series is not that big a deal. Losing it in this fashion absolutely is. A game like this can feel like two losses in a best of seven series, given the magnitude of the emotional swing.  And the most disconcerting thing, beyond the obvious, is that is the third time in a month the Pens have blown a 2 goal plus lead against the Eastern Pennsylvania Orange and Black Goon Squad.

There are a combination of factors driving the anger and frustration of me and most of the Penguin fan base this morning. One is the pattern, the fact that the Pens keep losing these games to Philly and keep losing them in the same way. They dominate early, and then Philly just takes the game away from them. This pattern includes an alarming disparity in special teams play. The Pens power play continues to blow opportunities to put games away and the Goon Squad is carving up their vaunted penalty killing unit with shocking ease.

The second factor is Philly’s shocking dominance at the New Energy Barn. It’s getting to the point where the Pens almost have home ice disadvantage. It’s bad enough for a team to have an unfettered belief in their ability to beat you. To have it in your barn is even worse. This is compounded by the fact that there was a Stanley Cup caliber atmosphere in the building last night. Word is the Goons were chanting “this is our house” after the game. Can any Penguin fan hear that and not be physically nauseous?

Finally there are expectations. Simply put, when a team has as much depth and talent as the Pens do the only reasonable expectation is the Stanley Cup. It’s just inconceivable that such a team could crash and burn like the Penguins did last night. To say it was not a championship caliber performance understates this issue. The real issue is that championship caliber teams rarely allow such thing to happen.

Throw all these factors together and you’ve got one seriously unhappy Habe this morning.

What bothers me the most is that the Penguins clearly took their foot off the gas with a three goal lead. The all-powerful, all knowing hockey savant Pierre McGuire pointed this out while the Pens were still leading by two goals. He made it clear that the Pens had gone in to a defensive shell; pulled back on their forecheck and stopped attacking. He also made it clear that this was happening, in his opinion, far too early.

Reasonable people can debate Mr. McGuire’s abilities as an announcer (or whether Brooks OrPECK should run him through the glass) but the man does know his hockey. And when he points something out that clear and obvious, moments before the house comes crashing down you have to take notice. This is not simply a factor of the Goons grabbing some momentum and turning the game around. This is about the Pens making what appears to be a disastrous strategic decision that could impact their entire season.

There are plenty of more micro issues to fret from last night’s game which I will not rehash here. The reality of hockey, or any sport, is that you can find good and bad in virtually every game, win or lose. Great teams balance this and find a way to win. When its all said and done, the Penguins had a tailor made opportunity to put the game away with an early third period power play and failed (a point I made to Emily just after it ended). As noted above that’s been a disturbing, season long trend against Philly.  And the Pens cannot win this series unless they AT LEAST even this out.

My wife has reminded me repeatedly this morning that it is only one game. And she’s 1,000% right. We learned in 2009 that even after the worst of moments (game 5 in Detroit); a team can turn things around in spectacular fashion. That said, there is a disturbing quality to this loss. This is far more reminiscent to me of the Pens comeback in game 1 of the 1992 Stanley Cup finals against Chicago. The Hawks had won 11 straight playoff games coming in to that series. After that comeback win, the Pens just seemed to be inside their heads. The series was competitive after that but you never got the sense that the outcome was in doubt.

That’s what bothers me most. The Pens most hated and bitter rival seems to be very much in their heads. Championship teams begin with talent, but there is so much more to the equation. A big part of that is the mental edge; a a certainty of belief that you can overcome any obstacle and win any game. The Goon squad seems to have that belief right now, especially in regards to the Pens. And unless they turn things around quickly, meaning in game 2, I have concerns about whether the Pens can change that. 

The Pens had Philly and their skittish goaltender on the ropes last night.  In the span of 30 minutes they not only let them off but got knocked to the canvas themselves.  That is a monumentAL emotional swing.  If they are truly a championship team, they will dig deep and overcome.  If they are not, it could be a stunningly short post season in the Burgh.

A TRAVESTY OF SEEDS…FIRST ROUND NHL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

It’s been 13 seasons since the NHL converted to a conference style playoff format, with guaranteed top 3 seeds for division winners. I’m a huge fan of the conference format; but the latter stipulation has caused a fair bit of controversy over the years. This year it has made a flat-out mockery of post season match-ups.

At the crux of this injustice are the Pittsburgh Penguins; owners of the NHL’s 4th best record overall. Their reward for such excellence, an opening round match-up with the team finishing 5th. In a system that made any sense at all this match-up would not occur until AT LEAST the second round. Honestly this is the most ridiculous miscarriage of post season justice since…three months ago when a 12-4 Steeler team was forced to play on the road against 8-8 Denver.

And such is life.

Champions do not make excuses; champions just find a way to win. If the Penguins are truly championship caliber, they will overcome what is an unfortunate break of seeding. If they are not, they will not. Consider that the Pens got a huge break two years ago, facing two inferior opponents in Ottawa and Montreal. They lost in the second round anyway because the 2009-10 Penguins were not playing at a championship level.

Here is the straight dirt for hockey fans; there is no team in the NHL that is deeper or more talented than your Pittsburgh Penguins. The top three center group of Malkin, Crosby, and Staal is far and away the best in the NHL. For the first time since 2008 (the first cup year), the Pens have enough quality scoring wingers to compliment both Crosby and Malkin. The team has an elite goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury, a Norris Trophy caliber defensemen in Kris Letang and a solid if unspectacular group of D-men around him.

If this team plays to its full capabilities, nobody should be able to beat them. Not even a deep and talented Goon Squad that has given them problems all season long. Keep in mind that I have not even mentioned the intangible qualities which are Stanley Cup experience (including Coach Dan Byslma), and a hunger built on two consecutive post season flame outs.

A first round match-up against a bitter rival can be a mixed blessing. This is obviously the most difficult first round match-up in this year’s playoffs. That will force the Pens to be at their best from game 1 on with little margin for error. A series against Ottawa would obviously be easier than dealing with Claude Giroux, Bozo the Hartnell, Mr. Universe (Ilya Bryzgolav) and the man Penguin fans love to hate, Jaromir Jagr. And it could get brutally physical at times which is a concern for subsequent series.

At the same time, the Penguins parlayed a first round victory over Philly in 2009 to a Stanley Cup championship. And rest assured there was no less bitterness and hatred between the teams then, no matter how ugly things got two weeks ago.

Playoff analysts (including me) like to critique match-ups, rate strengths and weaknesses, and come up with clever insights as to who will win a series. Well I’m not doing that here because there is no point. The Pens are the best team in the league if they want to be. That means if they play with the requisite heart, grit, determination, physicality and intelligence necessary in the post season. It means showing that immeasurable determination that championship hockey teams possess.

If the Pens do all that they will win this series. If they try and win on talent alone, as they did at times down the stretch, they will replicate the horrible, awful loss that is never spoken of to the Islanders in 1993.

I’m betting on the former; as is my beautiful wife Emily…Pens in 6.

As for my remaining picks I find myself in a painful situation. Namely I’m picking no fewer than five teams that I hate to win their first round series. My wife in contrast sticks to her guns and backs only teams she likes. Here’s hoping her predictions blow mine away. Historically speaking, they likely will.  Both are noted below.


HENRICK LUNDQVIST (1) VS OTTAWA SENATORS (8)

Why New York will win in 6 games (Adam and Emily)

Both teams are trending in the wrong direction at season’s end and John Torterella is popping off about arrogant organizations and conspiracies. The Rangers are ripe to be upset, but Ottawa just is not the team to do it. In case you have any doubt say this to yourself ten times…Lundqvist versus Craig Anderson. Besides, Jason Spezza is Joe Thornton soft come playoff time and the Rangers actually have a few guys who can score this year.


BOSTON BRUINS (2) VS WASHINGTON CRAPITALS (7)

Why Washington will win in 7 games (picked with GREAT RELUCTANCE by Adam)

The Craps played up to their moniker all season long and were in serious danger of missing the post season ten days ago. Alas, playing in a dreadful division doth have its perks and thus Washington stayed alive. Now suddenly Nicklas Backstrom is back, Ovie is on fire, and the Craps are peaking at the perfect time.

The Bruins in contrast are trending very much the wrong direction. They started the season in brilliant fashion, seemingly determined to defeat the dreaded Stanley Cup hangover. Somewhere along the way however the hangover caught up (a la Chicago and Pittsburgh the last two years). The B’s just have not been that good in the second half of the season. They rely too much on Tim Thomas who seems to be wearing down. Injuries may prevent Thomas from having to pump either Michael Neuvirth or Tomas Vokun’s tires; but I foresee some bizarre 2009 Varlomov reprisal if Braden Holtby is in nets for Washington.

Why Boston will in 7 games (Emily)

Because Thomas has enough money to pay his cab fare even if Peggy won’t get him a new credit card. And the closest Ovechkin will ever get to the Stanly Cup is X Box.


FLORIDA PANTHERS (3) VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS (6)

Why New Jersey will win (Adam, 6 games, Emily 5)

Because somebody has to.

Prop bet for the series; higher number, total goals scored or total television viewers? The only excitement for me is how long it takes Kevin Dineen to yank Jose Theordore after publically declaring him “the man” in goal. This series is a hockey travesty and a singular case study for blowing up the current seed structure.


BOBBY LU AND THE FREAK TWINS (1) VS LOS ANGELES KINGS (8) 

Why Vancouver will win in 6 games (Adam)

Because your typical World Cup soccer match features more goals than the LA Kings score for Vezina candidate Jonathan Quick. If the Kings had any offense, ANY, I would say an upset is possible. Alas, given their struggles and Jeff Carter’s annual foot injury I cannot see it happening.  Besides, Vancouver's abudant nightlife will likely consume a fair amount of Carter and Mike Richards' free time.  The Slash and Run Pansies are going down…just not here.

Why Los Angeles will win in 7 games (Emily)

No self-respecting Blackhawks fan (or any true NHL hockey fan) thinks that Vancouver will win. Ever! And even a terrible team can score goals when Roberto Luongo is flailing at pucks from his stomach.


ST. LOUIS BLUES (2) VS SAN JOSE SHARKS (7)

Why St. Louis will win in 5 games (Adam)

Because Ken Hitchcock is back behind the bench, fighting with all his might to drag the NHL back to the dead puck era. The Blues have done so much damage to offensive hockey that noted goaltending sieve Brian Elliott allowed barely 1.50 goals per game this year. Brian Elliott. Seriously. And the Sharks, who usually wait until the post season to choke, appeared to pack it in for the season about two months ago.

Why San Jose will win in 6 games (Emily)

Antti Niemi is her favorite goalie of all-time. The Blues play a ridiculously cheesy opening video at their home games, their fans do a dorky power play dance, and they openly condone hand-to-hand violence against opposing-team’s mascots. Antti Niemi is tried, true, and tested. I can’t stand the grinding style of play that St. Louis utilizes – no team should ever be able to win a playoff series playing like that. Also, St. Louis has minimal playoff experience. By the way, did I mention how much she likes Antti Niemi?


THE HOCKY TEAM FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE WINNIPEG JETS (3) VS CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (6)

Why the Hawks will win in 7 (Adam)

The Hawks are deeper and more talented and that is without Jonathan Toews who appears likely to return. Keep in mind that in spite of the seeds, the Hawks finished 4 points ahead of Phoenix during the season. I’m a little uneasy with Corey Crawford between the pipes but he’s been stronger of late. And Mike Smith reminds me way to much of his current goalie coach Sean Burke, invincible in March, invisible in April.

Why the Hawks will win in 5 (Emily)…DUH (cue Chelsea Dagger)!


NASHVILLE PREDATORS (4) VS DETROIT DEAD WINGS (5)

Why Detroit will win in 7

(Adam)

This will unnerve the Pekka Rinne admiration society going on around the NHL but I see this series much as I see the Hawks and Yotes. I expect Nashville to battle like crazy…and lose. Great talent beats hard work when great talent is willing to work hard. I think Detroit will do just that. Bad break for Nashville, another team that deserved a better first round match-up than the league’s ridiculous seeding policy gave them.

(Emily)

Hatred of hockey teams south of the Mason Dixon line > Hatred of Detroit…though just barely.

The Risk/Reward Battle with Sidney Crosby

There was fantastic news emerging from the new energy barn on Tuesday. Sidney Crosby is, in his own words, symptom free for the last few days and feeling significantly better. There is no timetable for his return although Sid greased the skids a bit by suggesting Sunday as a possibility.

Needless to say, this is creating quite the buzz in Penguin nation. I freely admit to being shocked by this news. I had all but committed to the reality that Sid was done for the season. In case there was any doubt of my convictions, I’ve created a permanent written record of them on the World Wide Web.

http://habersp0rtsblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/time-to-embrace-life-after-crosbyfor.html

For the record, I am more than happy to be wrong on this issue. As a Penguin fan nothing would make me happier than a healthy Sidney Crosby returning for the 2012 playoffs. I may have been wrong about Sid’s health prospects but I stand behind my other comment in the article. The Pens with Sidney Crosby are a legitimate Stanley Cup favorite. Without him they are at best a long shot. That point was amplified by Ray Shero’s inability to improve the team at the trade deadline.

To be clear, I don’t blame Shero for that result. It’s pretty obvious that there was a limited supply of players available and the asking prices were exorbitant. Paul Gaustad would look great in a Penguin uniform for two months but absolutely not at the cost of a first round draft pick. I stand by my belief that additional pieces were needed but at some point you have to deal in reality.

In the end, Shero made the right decision. If he did so with full knowledge of Crosby’s expected return it was a brilliant display of prudence in a non-existent trade market. If he did so only on blind faith, so be it. The simple fact is this. If Crosby is healthy, the Penguins have the best top three centers in the NHL bar none. That’s easy to forget given they’ve played only 10 of the last 154 games together.

The key phrase being of course, “If Crosby gets healthy.” And that is where this gets tricky.

You see nobody really knows if Crosby is healthy. Nobody knows if he’s 100% healed or if he’s simply survived a few days without symptoms. Nobody knows if he’s set for a decade of dominance or if another innocuous hit will sideline him for six months. Nobody by the way includes the Penguins, their doctors, the fans, the media, and most of all, Sid.

What’s even more clear is that there is limited if any ability to put a time line on this uncertainty. Crosby sat out 10 ½ months last year before returning. Eight games later he was back on the shelf suffering three months of symptoms. That means that the risk of him getting injured might be every bit the same if he returns tomorrow as if he returns next October.

That’s a fairly significant uncertainty when you are talking about a face of the franchise superstar. One who just happens to be one year away from unrestricted free agency.

I’ve made this point repeatedly; the Penguins are 15 months away from having to offer Crosby what figures to be a 7 year (or longer) contract for $10 Million per year (or more). If Crosby is healthy, that’s a bargain price. If he’s constantly out of the line-up with debilitating concussion issues, it’s a franchise killing deal. And just imagine if the price of keeping Crosby is losing Evgeni Malkin? Then it only gets worse.

Which means it’s fully in the best interest of the Penguins to make sure Crosby is healthy. If they cannot get comfortable with his long-term health they must let him go, no matter how painful that would be. And for my money the Pens are one more Crosby concussion from that happening.

Given all this uncertainty what do they do? For my money you get quantitative and play the risk reward game. Simply put, there will ALWAYS be uncertainty and risk surrounding Crosby’s cranium. It is now a permanent part of his profile. The question is thus, when does the reward for playing him outweigh that risk of further injury?

Last March I published a blog suggesting the Pens shut Crosby down for the year.

http://habersp0rtsblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/short-term-pain-for-long-term-gain.html

My reasoning was very much based on the risk/reward premise. Clearly he had a significant head injury that was taking a long-time to heal. Nobody knew for sure how much time that would take. The offseason provided between 4 and 6 months of free healing time, meaning time for Crosby to get better without the pressure of missing games.

The caveat of course was scuttling what appeared on January 1st of that year to be a clear cut Stanley Cup favorite. So be it.  The Pens had already lost Malkin to a season ending knee injury. Without Geno, their chances of winning the cup were significantly reduced, even with a healthy Crosby. And by all accounts Crosby was not going to be 100% healthy. In the end, it did not seem worth risking Crosby’s long-term health when there was minimal (if any) chance of winning the cup if he returned.

This year my views are in categorical opposition.

Not only is Malkin healthy, he has regained his form as arguably the most dominant offensive player in the game. As ridiculous as this sounds, Crosby might be the second line center when he returns. Put Crosby and Malkin (in whatever order) and Jordan Staal on your top three lines and you are talking about a no brainer Stanley Cup favorite.

On top of that, championship windows are short. You never know when they will come crashing down; a point crystallized to Penguin fans by Crosby’s recent trials and tribulations. The Pens sacrificed a tailor made championship opportunity last year. I have no wish to see them repeat this act in 2012, especially given Sid's uncertain future.

The most critical point is this. Having watched the development of this issue for a year, I can now confidently say we have absolutely no idea how long Crosby truly needs to get healthy. Last year we speculated that Sid would get healthy over the offseason. Now we know it is not that simple. Crosby might return today and be 100% healthy, especially if his neck injury really was the primary issue. Or he could sit out until October and immediately suffer another trauma. There is simply no way to know.

What it comes down to is this. If Sidney Crosby wants to continue as an NHL hockey player, he must at some point prove that he stay healthy and perform at the highest level. Given what I’ve described above, there is no time like the present; assuming the Pens get comfortable that he truly is symptom free.

Almost.

Which leads to my final point on the risk/reward matrix. The playoffs start on or about April 11th. The risk of playing Crosby now seems pretty much equivalent to the risk of playing him then. The major difference is the reward. The Penguins get no reward for Sid playing Sunday in Boston. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose. The opportunities for reward exist only come playoff time.

In short, there is zero upside to rushing Crosby back during the regular season. The Pens have survived, even thrived without 87 all season long. Another few weeks will not change anything.

I’m not advocating needlessly holding him out, just to hold him out. I am saying make sure that “symptom free” sticks before he comes back. Any game he plays before April 11th is gravy in my opinion. Nobody knows how long is long enough. That said, 3 ½ months of symptoms compared to “a few days” of symptom free is too tight a tolerance for what is at stake.

There is precedent in for players returning from a long absence at the start of the playoffs and performing well. Gary Roberts did it in 2008 and was still fully capable of terrorizing Ottawa. Peter Forsberg did it in or around 2001. Sid has already shown this season that he needs only about two shifts to get back to top speed.

Here’s hoping for a healthy return of Sid the Kid as soon as possible, but not a minute before.

Time to Embrace Life After Crosby…for Now

The most significant on ice decision of the Mario Lemieux ownership era is less than 17 months away. That’s when your Pittsburgh Penguins must decide whether to lavish what figures to be an eight figure annual salary on the NHL’s preeminent superstar (when healthy), one Sidney Crosby.

Before Sid the Kid became the poster child for the NHL’s recent concussion epidemic, such a deal was academic. The question was not IF the Pens would keep Crosby, just how much it would cost. The only legitimate concern regarding Crosby’s future was whether he would stay in the Burgh or head back to the mother ship in Canada.

Oh how we Penguin fans long for the days when the picture was that simple.

Now of course there is a legitimate question of whether the Pens can afford to keep Crosby. With Crosby healthy, an eight figure contract is a bargain. With Crosby beset by concussion issues and regularly unable to play, it’s a potentially franchise killing contract. Especially given Evgeni Malkin’s return to prominence as arguably the best offensive player in the NHL.

I do not envy Lemieux or Ray Shero the decision they may face in June 2013.

Alas, that decision is well off in the distance. Beyond even the clouds of the NHL’s uncertain labor situation which could potentially confuse the issue further. In short, there is still time, albeit a rapidly decreasing amount to deal with Crosby’s long-term future In contrast, the more pressing issue is less than ten days away.

The 2012 trade deadline arrives a week from Monday. That is the hard deadline for the Penguins to accept if they are willing to concede a second lost season for Crosby. And to my way of thinking, this is exactly what they must do.

I do not know a single Penguin fan who wants anything less than a healthy Sidney Crosby in the line-up before the post season starts. I also do not know a single Penguin fan who did not want to win last week’s $350 Million Power Ball either.

As much as we don’t want to accept it, reality is setting in. And that reality is that Sidney Crosby is unlikely to play again this season.

There is a déjà vu aspect to this situation; we lived the same scenario last spring. We watched the Penguins battle heroically night after night without the two headed monster of Crosby and Malkin in the line-up. And even as we knew that Malkin’s season was over, we hoped beyond hope that somehow, someway, Crosby would return in time to save the team’s Stanley Cup dreams. We hoped as we would in any season but especially last year when the Pens looked darn near invincible, until their apocalyptic post New Year’s injury run.

It never happened. No matter how good Crosby looked skating in practice, no matter how many reports were issued on his “improvement” he could not shake the concussion symptoms. The wait became an exercise in utter futility and the Pens eventually succumbed to superior talent in the Tampa Bay Lightning. The series exposed the most basic lesson in sports; great talent beats hard work when great talent is willing to work hard.

Championship opportunities in sports are precious and rare. They do not come along very often.

And in a strictly sports sense, true championship opportunities lost are a travesty.

The 2011 Penguins lost such an opportunity. They cannot afford to let another slip way while desperately hoping Crosby will return. Quite simply, it’s time to move on and accept the unpleasant reality of Sid’s short-term future.

A year ago I was more resigned to the team’s fate, what with Crosby and Malkin both out of the line-up. I refuse to make such concessions this year; especially with Malkin dominating the league in Crosby like fashion. Most teams in the league would dream of having a Malkin type superstar leading their club. Only in Pittsburgh would we suggest that it takes two such players to win a cup. In point of fact, it does not.

It takes one such player, healthy of course, with the right supporting cast. The Penguins are close but not quite there. Simply put the team as comprised is not Stanley Cup caliber without Crosby…but it can be. And thus Ray Shero MUST act.

The Pens to my way of thinking needs a top six forward, a checking line center, and possibly a depth defenseman. Crosby alone would solve the first two concerns. His return to health would allow the Pens to add arguably the game’s best player to their top six and push Jordan Staal back to the third line. There is no better group of centers in the league…when healthy…than Crosby, Malkin and Staal.

Crosby is so dominant that he can elevate a Pascal Dupuis to top 6 forward status. Staal, for all his strengths cannot. Jordan Staal is the game’s preeminent third line center. As a second line center he needs help. A second line of Staal with Cooke and Dupuis (or Sullivan or Kennedy) is acceptable in February, not in May. Especially given the likes of Cal O’Reilly and/or Dustin Jeffrey are centering the third line.

On the contrary, a line of Staal, Cooke, and say Teemu Selanne is a championship caliber option.

The Penguins’ answer may or may not be the Finish Flash but it needs to be a legitimate top 6 forward (Jaromir Jagr would have been nice solution but alas that's revisionist history now). Shero should be willing part with anybody in the organization short Simon Despres to make that happen. That includes the likes of Jeffrey, Ben Lovejoy, Kennedy and the rapidly fading prospect that is Eric Tangradi.

The Penguins also need a legitimate third line center if Crosby does not return. Stanley Cups are not won with waiver wire cast-offs like O’Reilly or Richard Park, or even Joe Vitale in that role.

Such acquisitions will almost certainly put the Pens over the salary cap with Crosby on the ledger. This accepts as unlikely the miracle that would be adequately replacing Paul Martin’s bloated contract. Which means quite simply that Crosby must come off the ledger until the end of the regular season. That calculation does not even contemplate adding another defensemen which may be a consideration with or without Martin in black and gold.

In the event Sid the Kid performs a miraculous recovery by season’s end, the Pens can still exploit the NHL’s ridiculous cap loophole and bring him back for the post season. There is precedent for this in Penguins’ Stanley Cup history and I’m willing to go way out on a limb and suggest that Sid might add a bit more to the line-up than Miroslav Satan.

That scenario presumes of course that Crosby is healthy and ready to play by mid-April. That is not a presumption I am willing to make with Sid still experiencing concussion symptoms as of today.

It’s time for a harsh, in your face reality check for all Penguin fans. We are now well in to year two of the Crosby concussion battle and there is little evidence that this issue is going to resolve itself any time soon. Even as we cling to the “soft tissue injury” as our Crosby lifeline, the reality is that Sid’s career right now is very much in jeopardy. I continue to hope beyond hope that Crosby returns healthy but I’m simply no longer willing to bank on it, not at the cost of another lost Stanley Cup.

In the pre salary cap days, such concerns were not mutually exclusive. Today they are. The Pens must bite the bullet and upgrade to championship supporting cast around Malkin. That means moving beyond Crosby…at least for now.