Back from the Dead, Third Round Playoff Predictions

I used to accept as a given that when a playoff series reached three games to zero, it was over.

It’s not just because before last year; only three teams in North American major sports history had overcome such a deficit. It just seemed that most teams threw in the towel once they lost that third game. The mountain seemed too high to climb.

Of course the players and coaches on both sides would vigorously deny that. The team leading would channel memories of Lou Holtz, regaling us with tales of just how dangerous Navy was while losing 40 straight years to Notre Dame. The trailing team in contrast would launch in to a series of “Bull Durham” like clichés about how it’s not over until it’s over and they were going to take it one game at a time.

To the latter point I offer Alex Ovechkin’s half hearted promises of a Washington comeback from said deficit last week. Ovie’s blatant lack of inspiration or conviction in those comments seemed to relay the utter futility that I have long associated with teams in this situation.

So how is it that for the third time in two years, a team forced a game 7 after trailing 3 games to none? How is it that a team from each of those series has arrived at this year’s final four? And how is it that two teams this year have blown a 3 games to 0 lead and still managed to win game 7?

Not just any teams mind you; San Jose and Vancouver, two clubs with a history of imploding under playoff pressure.

Indeed, if there is anything I believed in as much as a series being over at 3 to 0 it was this; if a team somehow did come back to force game 7, they would absolutely win the series. It’s why I truly believed that Chicago would finish off the comeback and topple the Nucks and with the caveat I will explain below, that Detroit would take out San Jose.

So chalk up a second staunch personal conviction I can toss in the recycle bin.

Here’s that odd caveat regarding San Jose. I actually did think they could win last night. I freely admit however I would not have believed that if Vancouver had lost to Chicago. Seeing a Canuck’s team built around historic post season chokers somehow win that game 7 made me realize that anything is possible. For the record, anything includes Patrick Marleau finally getting his playoff wake up call in the third period of game 7. I’m still awaiting Jeremy Roenick’s omnipotent pontifications on that.

Give both the Nucks and Sharks full credit; neither gave up when they had every reason to.

I would argue that both Vancouver and San Jose created their own drama through a distinct lack of killer instinct. That’s not to take away from the efforts of Chicago and Detroit, both of whom showed championship metal in their comebacks. I just do not know how Vancouver can go up 3 to 0 in a series and then lose the next two games by a 12 to 2 combined score. I watched the last six games of that series and I can tell you that Vancouver flat out did not show up in games 4 and 5. How does a supposed Stanley Cup favorite do that?

The same goes for San Jose. As great a team as Detroit can be, there is no excuse for the Sharks blowing a 3 to 1 third period lead, AT HOME, in game 5. Then they compounded it by getting blown off the ice in a listless game 6 effort. The scoreboard does not show it thanks to a sterling effort from Antti Niemi but the Sharks were dominated in virtually every facet of that game.

None of this should be shocking considering the calamity that is the recent post season history of these franchises.

I wonder however if this will serve as a coming of age moment for either the Sharks or Nucks? Will this be the year one of these teams finally grows up and develops championship metal; or just a prelude to more disappointment? For my money, I think the Sharks may finally be ready for that critical championship growth spurt. I’m not so sure about the Nucks, especially given another blown elimination opportunity in game 5 at home against mediocre Nashville.

The problem with both teams is that there core stars regularly disappear after tax day. As Penguin fans, we draw tremendous pleasure from the annual playoff vanishing acts of Semin, Backstrom, and Green in our nation’s capital. Well they are in good company with Joe Thornton, Marleau, and Dany Heatley in San Jose and the Bobby Lu and the Freak Twins in Vancouver.

The Versus’ crew spent most of last night waxing poetic about the brilliance of Thornton. Maybe I’m missing something but that would be the supposed franchise player who has two goals this post season? Yes he’s working hard, playing defense and winning face offs. It seems to me the Sharks could save $5 Million per and pay Max Talbot for that. And Talbot historically outscores Jumbo Joe in the post season.

Amazingly Thornton’s offensive production, which does include 9 assists has put Heatley and Marleau to shame. I’m not going to pull a Roenick and try and analyze either player’s intestinal fortitude; I will just say that historically they don’t produce when it matters most.

The Sharks growth spurt to me is driven by two factors. First, the team has built tremendous depth offensively including players like Joe PAVELski, Ryane Clowe, and Devin Setoguchi. Second, the Sharks replaced another perennial playoff choker, goalie Evgeni Nabokov, with a top playoff performer in Antti Niemi.

I realize I’m walking the Fleury/Barrasso line in terms of my Niemi credibility but both Emily and I are taking great pride in his success. Niemi has spent the season establishing as an elite goaltender and more important, a goaltender who gets it done when it matters (since winning the cup last year apparently was not convincing to the enlightened media masses). He was at his best in game 6 and 7. Not only did he make the critical saves, but he gave his team a desperately needed sense of belief. That’s a belief the Sharks have clearly lacked in prior years.

As for Vancouver, the main reason they are skating in the conference finals is a fortuitous match-up with Nashville. Luongo still looks skittish and the Sedins have been lost in Ryan Kessler’s ever growing shadow (not too mention the overbearing, Joe Flacco like love fest from the entire hockey world). Watching a team with this much talent try and eek out 2 to 1 wins over the chug and plug Predators was as bad as…Washington’s so called defensive system.

In case I’m being too subtle here let me spell it out; I’m not exactly a believer in the Canucks. I look at their coming of age comeback and see through the cracks. A flawed Chicago team followed by mediocre Nashville. A team that gave up a short handed goal in the final two minutes of game 7 and nearly lost in overtime. A flopping goaltender who is only playing by the grace of Corey Snyder’s groin injury.

I am a believer in San Jose…Sharks in 5.


Boston (not Philly) versus Tampa (not Washington)

It’s been so long since either of these teams saved Penguin fans from further post season torture that I’m not sure I can even make a prediction.

The series could go either way but I like the Bruins. There is nothing specific I can quantify except perhaps Tim Thomas’ superbly brilliant post season. Historically I’ve been scared off by ensemble offensive casts as they have in Boston. This year’s Bruins however just have the look about them. It’s an intangible I know but to me it seems pretty real. They had their own coming of age after going the distance to blow a 3-0 lead least year.

Add Zdeno Chara’s most dominant post season to an experienced, physical and motivated group, and I think the B’s are too much for the Bolts. It also does not hurt my belief that Tampa is relying on Sean Bergenheim and Dominic Moore for offense and a goaltender who is AARP eligible, while Steven Stamkos is mostly invisible.

As much as I will miss the angry stares from the French Canadian Mike Tomlin (aka, Guy Boucher)…Boston in 7.



1st Round 6 and 2 (lost with Philly and Pittsburgh)


2nd Round – 2 and 2 (lost with Washington and Nashville)

First Round Playoff Predictions - Fleury's Moment in the Sun

I have always maintained a staunch belief (or cult like zeal) that great goaltending is a prerequisite for winning a Stanley Cup. That is not exactly ground breaking news to those who know me well.

The Penguins have won three Stanley Cups in their history and played in four cup finals. On all four of those runs, goaltending was a critical element of that ultimate success. With all due respect to Ken Wregget I doubt the Stanley Cup would have found its way to Mario Lemieux’s swimming pool without Tom Barrasso.

Even with my grandiose delusions of goaltending superiority, I dare not advance the theory that Barrasso or Marc-Andre Fleury were the best players on their respective teams. Not when they were sharing ice time with the likes of Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Jaromir Jagr, Ron Francis, and Evgeni Malkin. Quite honestly, that’s the way a championship team should be built, with a great goaltender as PART OF the mix.

This may cause Disque and Filoni to fall over clutching their chests but truly I do not want an NHL where goaltenders can single handedly carry teams to championships on a regular basis. I fear this as much as I fear the league’s continued Osgood-ification, where certain teams devalue goaltenders to the point of absurdity. For the record, I define absurdity as fielding a championship caliber club in front of Michael Leighton and/or bailing on the cup winning goaltender over $2.75 Million in salary.

Ironically, while the influence of goaltenders seems to be increasing in the regular season, the opposite appears to be happening in the playoffs. With all due respect to Jaroslav Halak, we are seeing fewer and fewer instances of goaltenders carrying a team to the finals. For my money you have to go back to 2004 when Mikka Kipprusoff dragged a mediocre Calgary to game 7 of the finals, one year after Jean Sebastian Giguere did the same for Anaheim.

Which brings us to the 2011 Penguins and Marc-Andre Fleury.

Fleury is poised to boldly go where no Penguin goaltender has gone before. For the first time in team history, a Penguin goaltender is clearly and without question the team’s most critical player going in to the post season. The 2011 Penguins will literally go only as far as the Flower can carry them.

This is not about making big saves at key moments as he did in 2008 and 2009. This is about being exceedingly brilliant start to finish. Forget the obvious fact that Fleury can not afford to allow soft goals against Tampa. He needs to spend the next two weeks making life utterly miserable for Stamkos, St’Louis, and LeCavallier. It’s the only chance the Penguins have.

The Penguins are going to play this series, and possibly their entire post season run without Sidney Crosby. That’s on top of already losing Evgeni Malkin. Feel free to dispute my theory that the Pens should shut down Crosby until next season. Just understand that he’s highly unlikely to play against Tampa if at all in these playoffs.

The Penguins have played through an unprecedented run of critical injuries, pretty much since the winter classic. There are not enough superlatives to describe the team’s effort and more important results during this span. They have developed something you can not quantify; an almost indominitable will to win. With all due respect to Mike Tomlin, it’s Dan Bylsma’s Penguins who have shown that “the standard is the standard.”

But there is no mystery here; the team just does not score enough goals without 87 and 71.

If the Pens are going to beat Tampa, it will likely be by 2-0 or 2-1 type scores. They will have to work relentlessly from start to finish, in every game. They will have to forecheck the life out of Tampa’s defense. They will have to stay out of the penalty box and not give easy opportunities to Tampa’s cadre of offensive stars. The drastically improved defense will have to continue its shut down performance.

And most important, Marc-Andre Fleury will have to be the dominant player in every game.

Even that might not be enough. Heart, grit, effort and strong goaltending are prerequisites for championship success. Superstars playing like superstars are the ultimate drivers. Penguin fans know this all to well; for years the Pens beat down harder working teams like Washington and Boston by having superior firepower. I still say the best game the Pens have played since Crosby’s injury was a 1 to 0 loss to Washington; a game that potentially foreshadows the team’s ultimate fate without Crosby.

The Pens have a championship goalie, championship coach, championship defense, and a championship heart. Without 87 and 71 they lack championship skill. That may keep them from winning the cup if Sid does not play, but it’s enough to beat the Bolts…PENS IN 6.

Other Series 

Washington (F’n) Crapitals (1) over New York Rangers (8) – 7 Games

Henrik Lundqvist is vastly superior to any of Washington’s three young goaltenders which should create Halak style post traumatic stress for Craps fans. Sadly, I don’t think it will matter. The Craps have an ugly post season history; but the Rangers can go choke for choke with anybody. New York still does not have anybody who can score consistently, Washington still has Ovechkin. For the record, I’m not totally buying the Craps new “defensive identity” but on the bright side Alex Semin and Mike Green will now have viable excuses for not scoring in the playoffs.

Buffalo Sabres (7) over The Eastern Pennsylvania Orange and Black Goon Squad (2) – 7 Games

Philadelphia has without question the deepest and most talented group of skaters in the post season. They are eerily reminiscent of last year’s Blackhawks with one notable exception; as per usual, the Goons are backstopping their team with second rate goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky has been trending downward since mid season and I’m not buying another Boucher/Leighton miracle. Buffalo’s major trade deadline acquisition was apparently their new owner, the Sabres are one of the hottest teams in the league since they wrapped up due diligence. In the meantime, Chris Pronger is in the press box and Philly is stumbling backwards in to the playoffs.

Boston Bruins (3) over Montreal Canadiens (6) – 6 Games

Last year I thought Montreal was the worst of the 16 playoff teams. This year…I think Montreal is the worst of the 16 playoff teams. And in spite of his shockingly brilliant season, I’m not expecting Halak part deux from Carey Price. I know the Canadiens have tortured Boston for a century and I know there is added angst given Zdeno Chara’s attempted beheading of Max Pacioretty, but I don’t see an upset here.

Western Canadian Slash and Run Pansies (1) over Chicago Blackhawks (8) – 6 games

Last Sunday I was at the United Center watching the Hawks try and salvage an immensely disappointing season. The atmosphere was great, the Hawks had everything at stake and Detroit had nothing to play for. The Hawks promptly spit up all over themselves.

I would love nothing more than for my adopted home town team to stuff it to Bobby Lu and the Freak Twins for a third straight year. And I might think it possible if Luongo’s one man personal nightmare Dustin Byfuglien was not marooned in the hockey purgatory that is Atlanta. Alas, the salary cap apocalypse cost the Hawks too much depth, physicality and grit and it showed all season. I’m not sold on the Nucks but I think they get over their Blackhawk hump this year.

San Jose Sharks (2) over Los Angeles Kings (7) – 5 games

The Sharks typically follow dominant regular seasons with playoff meltdowns. This happens because Joe Thornton typically follows a dominant regular season with a playoff meltdown. Never fear Sharks fans, Thornton finally changed the pattern; this year he’s been invisible pretty much since opening night. That means a very deep Shark’s team has already learned to win without him. Throw in dealing up perennial playoff choker Evgeni Nabakov for Stanley Cup backstop Antti Niemi; add Los Angeles losing Anze Kopitar and it’s an easy win for the Sharks. By the way, I see big things for San Jose this year.

Detroit Dead Wing (3) over Winnipeg Jets (6) – 6 games

If the Jets had still had my defensive man crush Zbynek Michalek, one legitimate goal scorer, or an actual home ice advantage, they would have a shot in this series. That’s what happens when you match Ilya Bryzgolav and Jimmy Howard in net. Alas the Dead Wings are used to winning with inferior goaltending (“Osgood-ification”) and the Jets just can not score. Throw in Detroit having decidedly more fans at all seven games and I think the Wings are just too much.

Nashville Predators (5) over Anaheim Ducks (4) – 7 games

I’m going to admit something I NEVER thought I would ever put in writing. Anaheim’s chances to win this series rest entirely on having a healthy Ray Emery. That’s akin to Penguin fans resting their hopes on Matt Cooke winning the noble peace prize. I’ll take a moment to make sure my computer does not spontaneously combust.

The Ducks have more talent than Nashville; in fact they have arguably the best first line in the game. And they’ve actually improved since Jonas Hiller got hurt; they were far too dependent on their Swiss sensation. Alas I can’t fathom any NHL team winning a playoff series with Dan Ellis in goal; let alone one with Anaheim’s defensive weaknesses. Which means as much as I’m disgusted by the idea, Nashville finally makes the second round…unless Emery or Hiller returns.